We're starting a new year. A new blank book opens before us for us to fill with dreams, hopes, decisions, and moments, both good and not so good. As far as the weather is concerned, it will be a warm year According to the forecast of the United Kingdom Met Office (UK Met Office), but it will not be a record as it can be in 2016.
The increase in temperatures as a consequence of the increasingly high emissions of greenhouse gases, makes each new year enter the list of the warmest recorded.
The global temperature in 2017 could be between 0,63 and 0,87ºC above the long-term average (period 1961-1990) of 14ºC, with a central estimate of 0,75ºC. Using the 1981-2003 long-term average of 14,3°C, the forecast range is between 0,32 and 0,56°C with a central estimate of 0,44°C, which would make it one of the warmest years in recent memory. This temperature increase is similar to that recorded in the article on the warmest years in history.
"This forecast, which uses Met Office's new supercomputer, adds weight to our previous prediction that 2017 will be very warm worldwide, but it is unlikely to exceed 2015 and 2016," said Professor Adam Scaife, Head of Forecasting long-term at the Met Office. These last two years have been the hottest since 1850, not only due to the additional warming of El Niño, but also due to the increasing emissions of greenhouse gases, such as carbon dioxide or methane.
Image - Met Office
Although it is difficult to know exactly what will happen in the medium and long term, studying and analyzing the data and taking into account factors that influence the climate, such as natural phenomena, The boy and the girl, scientists suspect that this year, which has just begun, will become one of the hottest on record globally. This increase in temperature can also be related to the mortality rate during high temperatures.
You can read the full forecast here (in English). It is also important to note that knowing the difference between weather and climate is essential to understanding these phenomena. The relationship of this extreme heat with the risk of fires in Spain becomes increasingly relevant.