Every year, starting in June, the attention of millions of people is focused on the conditions in the Atlantic and the Caribbean, as the Hurricane seasonBy 2025, experts insist that hurricane activity could exceed the historical average, keeping the regions usually affected on alert.
Projections published by agencies such as NOAA and Colorado State University foresee between 13 and 19 named storms in the Atlantic, of which between 6 and 10 would reach hurricane intensity, And till 5 of these could be major hurricanesAccording to climatology, the season officially begins in June and typically extends until November 30, although the number and strength of storms can vary depending on global climatic factors.
Determining factors for an active season
Several factors explain the estimated increase in activity. Among the main ones, high ocean surface temperatures have been identified as a key driver of the formation of more intense cyclones. global warming plays a fundamental role here, since by raising the temperature of both the water and the air column, the energy available for storms increases.
Meteorologists also point to the global climate situationThis year, the transition between phenomena like El Niño and La Niña remains neutral, a situation nicknamed "The Nothing." This neutrality can lead to greater variability in hurricane activity, making it more difficult to determine whether the season will behave as the models suggest or surprise with sudden changes.
The artificial intelligence revolution in hurricane prediction
The uncertainty inherent in hurricanes has prompted the development of more advanced tools to anticipate them. Google, through DeepMind and Google Research, has presented this year a new model of Artificial Intelligence to predict tropical cyclones, integrated into the Weather Lab platform. Thanks to sophisticated neural networksThis technology not only identifies the formation of potential hurricanes, but also simulates up to 50 different development scenarios for each phenomenon, with forecasts two weeks in advance.
This system was developed in collaboration with the U.S. National Hurricane Center. and has been scientifically validated by meteorology experts from various international institutions. Weather Lab It incorporates an interactive interface where anyone can view dynamic maps and explore current and historical storm data. This is especially useful for authorities and at-risk populations, as it increases their response time and helps them make better decisions when faced with the threat of a hurricane.
Emergency management in a changing scenario
Along with technology, another hot topic this season is disaster response management. In the United States, the debate over the continuity of the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) has gained momentum after the federal government announced its intention to dismantle the agency after the 2025 season. The goal is to transfer responsibility directly to the states, which has raised concerns among experts and former civil protection officials, who doubt the ability of the most vulnerable states to cope with large-scale events alone.
It is feared that the reduction of federal resources and the reorganization of FEMA reduce the effectiveness of aid during critical episodes, especially in territories such as Florida and Texas, common in hurricane paths.
Areas under special surveillance and recommendations
The areas located around the Gulf of Mexico, the Caribbean, and the East Coast of the United States These are again the ones that need to be prepared most carefully. Factors such as high surface temperatures and constantly changing weather conditions These regions face a risk of rapid cyclone intensification. Therefore, it is essential to stay informed and follow the recommendations issued by meteorological and civil protection authorities.
Naming storms, for its part, facilitates communication and public service. The list of names for 2025 is the same as that of 2019, except for those eliminated because they were associated with particularly destructive cyclones.
Official forecasts point to a 60-65% chance of a busier than normal seasonThe combination of advanced technologies and constant attention to climate change makes preparedness and response more effective than ever. Interagency coordination, scientific innovation, and citizen engagement are key to meeting the challenges posed by hurricanes this year.