The climate assessment of the past year has left a resounding message: 2025 ranked as the third warmest year since instrumental records beganwith record temperatures across much of the planet and a context of global warming which continues to accelerate. The data comes from European climate services, which integrate satellite observations, surface stations, and advanced models.
Far from being an isolated piece of data, 2025 fits into a series of exceptionally hot years which confirm the trend of an increasingly warmer climate. Experts emphasize that the importance of the report lies not only in a specific figure, but in the convergence of multiple indicators (air temperature, oceans, sea ice, fires or heat stress) all point in the same direction.
A record-breaking year: the third warmest on record worldwide
According to the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), which operates the Climate Change and Atmospheric Monitoring services of Copernicus for the European Commission, the The average global temperature in 2025 reached 14,97 ºC. This means 0,59 ºC higher than the average for the period 1991-2020 and consolidates the level of warming observed in the last decade.
In the historical ranking, 2025 was the third warmest year on record., leaving barely 0,01 ºC below 2023 y 0,13 ºC below 2024, which continues to lead the series. In terms of anomaly compared to the pre-industrial era (1850-1900), the year was ranked 1,47 ºC above those reference levels, which makes it the second warmest if that specific criterion is used.
Copernicus data shows that January 2025 was the warmest January ever recorded globally. Also March, April and May They ranked second among the warmest in their respective series. Except in February and DecemberEvery month of the year broke previous records for those same months compared to any year prior to 2023.
Copernicus officials point out that The last 11 years have been, one after the other, the warmest in the historical record.This string of extreme years reinforces the evidence of continued warming, driven primarily by emissions from greenhouse gases of human origin.
One of the tables in the report summarizes the 2025 position: average temperature of 14,97 ºC, anomaly of +0,59 ºC compared to 1991-2020, deviation from +1,47 ºC compared to the pre-industrial era and ranking as the third warmest year since systematic records began.
Europe and Spain: a very warm year with visible impacts
In the European case, the report indicates that 2025 was also the third warmest year for the continent, with an average temperature of 10,41 ° CThis figure remained 0,30 ºC below the 2024 recordbut it was located 1,17 ºC above the reference averageThis reinforces a trend of successive years with clearly elevated temperatures. These changes have consequences for climate, oceans, tourism and cities of the continent.
The document states that in the far east and northwest of Europe Unprecedented annual values were recorded, with particularly warm conditions in Atlantic areas and parts of Central Asia. This pattern includes, among other regions, sectors of the northeastern Atlantic near Europe and continental areas where the positive anomalies They were very pronounced.
Although the global report details in specific tables the annual average temperature anomalies in SpainAs well as variations in precipitation, the overall message for our country is clear: 2025 was categorized as a very warm year in peninsular Spain. The series show a sustained increase in average temperature since the early sixties, with the last few years concentrating most of the highest values.
Regarding the rain, the text refers to Tables of average rainfall in the different geographical areas of Spain, with the percentage of precipitation relative to the 1991-2020 average. Although the numerical details are not broken down in the overall summary, the analysis points to the “Characteristics of temperature and precipitation in 2025 in Spain” to assess how warming interacts with episodes of drought or heavy rainfall.
The most extreme scenarios included prolonged heat wavesespecially in the summer, and forest fires relevant in different areas of the peninsulaSpain is specifically mentioned among the regions affected by major fires, along with other parts of Europe and North America.
Three-year period 2023-2025: for the first time three years above +1,5 ºC
One of the facts that most worries the scientific community is that The period 2023-2025 constitutes the first stretch of three consecutive years in which the average global temperature exceeds +1,5 ºC compared to the pre-industrial levelThis is the threshold that the Paris Agreement It was established as a benchmark for limiting the most severe long-term impacts of climate change.
According to the ECMWF, Long-term global warming is currently estimated at around +1,4°Cmeasured as an average over periods longer than a single year. However, the most recent annual values indicate that The persistent exceedance of +1,5°C could arrive towards the end of this decadeThat is, approximately ten years earlier than was envisaged when the Paris Agreement was signed in 2015.
Experts remind us that The 1,5°C threshold is not a rigid line.but rather a rough reference linked to the growing risk of serious impacts. Even so, the fact that an average of three years has already exceeded it is interpreted as a clear symptom of the acceleration of warm-up and the increasing difficulty in keeping it within the expected margins.
The period 2023-2025 was exceptionally warm for several reasons. First, the continued accumulation of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere, united to the reduction of the natural absorption capacity of CO₂ by forests and soilsOceans and other sinks, have increased the radiative forcing of the climate system.
Secondly, the following were recorded unusually high sea surface temperatures in virtually all oceansThese conditions were associated with both an El Niño event in previous years and other factors of ocean variability. Although in 2025 a pattern close to neutral or neutral conditions predominated, the overall trend was not as strong as in 2025. Weak Niña in the equatorial PacificOcean thermometers remained well above average, indicating the weight of background warming induced by human activity.
Oceans at their limits and poles at extreme levels
The report highlights that the The average global sea surface temperature reached 20,73°C in 2025, the third highest value recorded, only behind 2024 and 2023. This persistent ocean warming has consequences for the weather patterns, sea level rise and marine ecosystems.
In the polar regions, the year was especially significant. Antarctica recorded its highest annual temperature since records began.While The Arctic reached the second highestThese thermal anomalies resulted in a historic reduction of sea ice, with unprecedented lows at some times of the year; the Antarctica appears particularly affected.
In February 2025, the Combined Arctic and Antarctic sea ice cover fell to its lowest recorded level since satellite measurements began in the late 1970s. In the Arctic, the monthly extent of sea ice was the lowest for that time of year in January, February, March and December, and the second lowest in June and OctoberIn the Antarctic case, the extent values remained similarly depressed, in line with the exceptionally high temperatures in the region.
This polar behavior reinforces a known pattern: The warming is especially intense at high latitudes, an amplification that has repercussions on atmospheric circulation, sea level and the balance of large ice sheets.
In addition to the polar regions, the following were recorded Record annual temperatures in the Northwest and Southwest Pacific, as well as in the Northeast AtlanticSome of these ocean areas are located in the vicinity of Europe, which helps to explain some of the anomalies observed on the continent during 2025.
Heat stress, health and air quality
Beyond the overall figures, the report underscores the direct consequences of the heat on the population. Approximately In 2025, half of the world's land surface experienced more days than normal with intense heat stress., defined as a perceived temperature equal to or greater than 32 ºCThe World Health Organization identifies this heat stress as the leading cause of climate-related mortality on a global scale.
In Europe, the heat waves were especially persistent In some areas, there were frequent tropical nights and daytime temperatures that remained well above average. In Mediterranean countries like Spain, these conditions resulted in increased energy demand for cooling, impacts on the health of vulnerable groups and additional complications for sectors such as agriculture and water management.
The high temperatures combined with dry and windy environments They also favored the emergence of exceptional forest firesThe Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) notes that Parts of Europe, including Spain, recorded their highest total annual emissions from fires, in parallel to very intense episodes in North America.
These fires emitted large amounts of carbon and toxic air pollutants, such as fine particulate matter and tropospheric ozone. The result was a significant degradation of air quality, with potentially harmful effects on human health both locally and regionally, due to the transport of smoke over long distances.
The report notes that these incidents occurred during a year with frequent extreme phenomenaRecord-breaking heat waves, severe storms in Europe, Asia and North America, and large-scale wildfires in areas such as Spain, Canada, or Southern CaliforniaAll of this contributes to an increasingly volatile climate picture.
Science, data, and margin of uncertainty
European climate services insist that the results are based on the best available data and advanced monitoring systemsCopernicus has established itself as one of the main scientific tools on a global scale for to monitor climate evolution, especially after the interruption or limitation of some programs in other international organizations.
The institutions participating in the program – including the ECMWF and European academic and scientific centers– they point out that the The degree of reliability of the current estimates is very highboth in terms of trends and annual anomalies. Even so, they emphasize that All climate analysis is subject to a margin of error and uncertainty.since it is never possible to sample the planet perfectly.
On a technical level, the report mentions the concept of terrestrial climate sensitivityThat is, the degree of warming produced by each unit of CO₂ emitted into the atmosphere. The coming years, and particularly the next decade, are considered key for to better define that value and to understand how the different components of the climate system (atmosphere, oceans, cryosphere, biosphere) respond individually and in a cascade.
Those responsible for Copernicus, such as Carlo Buontempo y Laurence Rouil, they insist that Human activity remains the dominant factor behind the extreme temperatures observed.Atmospheric greenhouse gases have increased steadily over the past decade, reinforcing the warming signal. The atmosphere, they point out, “He is sending a message that is worth listening to.” when designing climate and air quality policies.
In the words of European officials, the world “We are rapidly approaching the long-term temperature limit of the Paris Agreement”They assume that exceeding that threshold is now difficult to avoid, and that the key issue becomes how to manage this overshoot and its consequences for societies and ecosystemsthrough mitigation and adaptation measures based on scientific evidence.
With all these elements on the table—the third warmest year on record, oceans at record highs, poles at record lows, increasing heat stress, and three consecutive years above +1,5°C—the overall picture left by the 2025 data is one of a climate system that continues to warm steadily and in which every tenth of a grade and every year counts to define the climate future of Europe, Spain and the entire planet.
