The atmosphere in Spain once again shows clear signs of instability after a few days of pleasant temperatures and clearer skies in various parts of the country. Everything indicates that the respite will be brief, as the meteorological outlook takes a radical turn starting this Friday with the arrival of a DANA will keep the storms strong across large areas for several days. This situation, far from improving, will worsen as the weekend progresses, as the most recent models have indicated.
The change is motivated by the strengthening of the anticyclone in the British Isles, which encourages cold air at altitude to descend over the Atlantic and the Mediterranean, fostering the development of convective clouds with a high capacity to produce heavy rainfall, hail, and even gales. This pattern, which has been repeated for weeks, It has its origin in a very variable atmospheric dynamics driven by meanders of the polar jet stream and blocking situations in northern Europe.
Most critical days: Friday and Saturday under the influence of DANA
Starting Thursday, the weather will become increasingly unstable across most of the Peninsula. Friday and Saturday are expected to be the most difficult days., with the DANA located over the north and center of the peninsula and spreading intense storms to much of the country. The heaviest and most persistent rainfall is expected in the northern half, the Balearic Islands, and many points in the eastern peninsula, especially in the Valencian Community and the Region of Murcia, where orange warnings have already been activated for locally very heavy rain and large hail.
In the mountain ranges and inland regions of the east, a greater frequency of showers, hail and even snowfall at high altitudes is expected., with rainfall records reaching or exceeding 30-40 l/m² in just one hour in some places, especially in inland Valencia and Castellón. There is a risk of flash flooding due to the intensity of the downpours.
The stormy activity will not stop there: Storms may be accompanied by electrical equipment, very gusty winds and hail discharges over 2 cm in diameter.High-resolution models even consider the possibility of some storms organizing into squall lines, capable of producing downbursts and wind gusts exceeding 80 km/h.
Areas and times most affected by storms
Regions with a higher risk of severe storms will be the Valencian Community (especially the southern interior of Valencia), the Region of Murcia, the central peninsula, a good part of Castile and León, the Central System, areas of Galicia and the northeastFrom early afternoon onwards, conditions will be particularly adverse, with the greatest rainfall accumulations usually occurring between 14:00 PM and 22:00 PM.
In Catalonia, Aragon, Madrid and Castilla-La Mancha Heavy downpours are also expected, with accumulated rainfall of 15-20 l/m² in one hour. and the possibility of hail or gales. In Galicia and the northwest, rainfall will initially be less intense, but will tend to become more widespread by Saturday.
In the Balearic Islands, instability will gradually increase, especially starting early Friday morning, with heavy rain and storms, especially in areas like Mallorca. The Canary Islands will experience a stormy episode with the arrival of an Atlantic storm, noting cloudiness and showers, especially in the western islands.
Instability continues after the most critical days
On Sunday it is expected that The heaviest rains are concentrated in the far north of the peninsula, with storms in northeastern Catalonia and persistent snowfall in the Pyrenees and, to a lesser extent, in the Iberian System. Heavy showers are likely to persist in parts of the north and east of the peninsula, while in the rest of Spain the trend is toward gradual improvement, although the atmosphere will remain somewhat unsettled.
In the Canary Islands, both Saturday and Sunday the weather will continue to be very unstable, with occasional rain, falling temperatures, and a cooler-than-usual atmosphere. The presence of the DANA and associated storms will maintain instability across the country until early next week.
During this episode, temperatures will remain below average values For these dates, the weather is expected across almost the entire peninsula. Frost is expected in higher elevations, and further snowfall at mid-altitudes is not ruled out, something unusual in the middle of May.
This stormy episode reflects an atypical spring, in which episodes of intense rain and storms have been the focus since March, with significant rainfall and unrelenting atmospheric variability. The arrival of the DANA reinforces this trend and requires extreme caution, especially in areas where official warnings for rain, hail, or strong winds have been issued.
