The arrival of the Easter This year's weather pattern will be closer to winter than spring. After a few relatively calm days, the latest forecasts from the State Meteorological Agency (Aemet) and spring predictions They point to a clear shift in the times, with a sharp drop in temperatures, return of snow and increased rainfall in various areas of the country.
This change in pattern will affect the territory unevenly. While the Northern Spain and the Balearic Islands face a winter environmentWith showers and snowfall at relatively low elevations, the south and much of the interior will maintain calmer skies, but with an unusual feeling of cold for the end of March, right on the key days of processions and travel.
From the storm in the Canary Islands to the thermal collapse on the Peninsula
The days leading up to the start of Holy Week have been marked by the Storm Therese in the Canary Islandswhich has brought very heavy rainfall, affected roads, and flooded homes, especially in Tenerife and Gran Canaria. According to Aemet, from Thursday onwards the archipelago enters a phase of clear improvementwith showers now only in the north of the islands and a predominance of weak and more scattered rainfall.
While the islands are beginning to return to normal, the situation is changing on the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. The meteorological agency forecasts a day of rain for this Thursday. Generally sunny in much of the countrybut with denser clouds and light rain in the Cantabrian Mountains and the Pyrenees, where the snow level may descend to 1.000-1.200 metersIt is precisely on this day that a a temperature drop that will become more pronounced as the week progresses.
Rubén del Campo, spokesperson for Aemet, explains that the Maximum temperatures will drop between 6 and 8 degrees compared to the previous day in large areas of the Peninsula. In contrast, in Andalusia the thermometer will behave differently: Seville could reach around 27ºCwhile northern cities like Burgos or Soria They will not reach 10°C, reflecting a very marked contrast between the south and the north.
This decline will be accompanied by moderate to strong northerly windsEspecially in the northeast of the Iberian Peninsula, the Balearic Islands, and the Galician and Cantabrian coasts, making the perceived temperature even lower. In the Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea, further low temperatures are possible. light drizzlewhile in the rest of the interior and southern half, the dry environment will continue to dominate, although with colder temperatures.
Warnings for wind, waves and snow at the start of the episode
The worsening weather is accompanied by weather warnings in several communitiesAemet has activated orange and yellow alert levels due to various adverse phenomena linked to this change in atmospheric pattern.
In the east of the Peninsula, Castellón and Tarragona are under an orange alert for windwith gusts that could reach 120 km/h in the pre-coastal area and inland parts. In the maritime area, Girona, Tarragona, Mallorca and Menorca They are under a warning for strong waves, with swells that could reach around 8 to 10 meters in some areas of the Catalan and Balearic coast.
At a lower level, the low yellow level, are located Huesca, Teruel, Zaragoza, Girona, Lleida and Menorca due to strong winds, and AlmerÃa, Cádiz and A Coruña due to coastal phenomena. In the mountains, the warning stands out for snow in the Navarrese Pyreneeswhere more than 5 cm can accumulate above about 900 meters, anticipating the wintery character that will mark the central days of the festive period.
Aemet itself summarizes the scenario of this first stretch as a time "Stable but cold" across most of the territorywith rainfall concentrated in the far north and the Balearic Islands, and an increasing presence of frost in mountain areas and on the northern plateau.
Friday and Saturday: more stable, but with frost and snow in the north
On Friday, a generally more stable environment...without forgetting some nuances. Aemet does not rule out Light rainfall in the Cantabrian region, the southeast and the Balearic IslandsIn addition to the possibility of light rain in the north of the Canary Islands. These will not be intense episodes, but they will be enough to maintain instability in those areas.
The most striking thing about Friday will be the cold in the early hoursThe agency anticipates frost in mountain areas and nearby zones, and even in some inland moors, while the maximum temperatures will show uneven behavior: They will clearly decrease in the southern third.where temperatures will remain around 22ºC in the Guadalquivir valley, and rise slightly in the rest of the country, with around 18-20 ºC in the central peninsula and values ​​between 10 and 14 ºC in the interior of the northern half.
Saturday will maintain the same trend. The forecast points to a Relatively calm weather in much of the country, but with More cloud cover in the northern half and rain on the Cantabrian slope and in the Pyrenees. In this mountain range, the The snow level will be around 1.000 to 1.200 metersSo, snowfall will reappear at mid-altitudes, something striking on the eve of Holy Week.
Aemet insists that they will continue to be recorded frost in mountainous areas and in some high-altitude areas of the northern and central half, reflecting that the cold air will remain firmly settled over the Peninsula. Other possibilities are also not ruled out. Light and scattered rain in the Balearic Islands nor some showers in the north of the Canary Islands, although far from the intensity caused by Storm Therese.
Meanwhile, northerly winds will continue to blow strongly in the northeast of the peninsula, the Balearic Islands and mountain areas, prolonging the feeling of winter weather even though the calendar already marks spring.
Palm Sunday: almost wintry atmosphere and more snow in the north
El Palm SundayThe key day for processions in many Spanish cities is shaping up, according to Aemet, to be a cold day for this time of yearRubén del Campo emphasizes that we will wake up again with frosts in large inland areas, especially in the north and east of the peninsula, where the thermometer will plummet during the early morning.
In capital cities like TeruelThe minimum temperatures could be around -2 ºCand in numerous locations in the northern and eastern interior maximum temperatures will barely rise to 11-13 ºCThe feeling, therefore, will be that of a practically wintry day for much of the interior, despite being in the middle of Holy Week.
Regarding rainfall, the forecast paints a fairly clear picture: Rain in the Cantabrian Mountains, the Pyrenees and the upper Ebrowith snow in the Pyrenees from 1.000-1.200 meters. In Balearics Showers are also expected, while in the rest of the country the sky will tend to be mostly clear or partly cloudy, although with a cold atmosphere and some wind.
Aemet does not completely rule it out isolated showers in some parts of the east and south of the peninsulaBut these episodes are unlikely and, in any case, less severe than in the far north. For many inland capitals, the main concern won't be umbrellas, but coats and the risk of nighttime frosts.
Looking ahead to the first working days of Holy Week, the agency forecasts that the weather will continue generally stablewith rainfall still confined to the far north and with temperatures starting to rise From Monday onwards, gradually approaching values ​​more typical of the season.
The key to the forecast: polar air, cold trough and possible DANA (isolated depression at high levels)
Behind this change in weather lies the arrival of a very cold polar air mass at height, associated with a deep trough descending over EuropeAccording to the specialized portal Meteored, this configuration favors the formation of several low-pressure systems and the incursion of very cold air towards the Iberian Peninsula, with prevailing north and northeast winds in the second half of the week.
The prediction models agree on the arrival of this cold air, but They still show discrepancies regarding their intensity and extentas well as on the behavior of possible isolated systems at height. One of the elements that can make a difference during Holy Week is the Formation and trajectory of a DANA (isolated depression at high levels) in the Mediterranean environment.
The option considered most likely by some numerical scenarios suggests that this DANA could cross over the eastern peninsulaIn that case, it would generate locally intense showers and thunderstorms in areas such as the Valencian Community, the Region of Murcia, eastern Andalusia and Melilla, as well as in Balearics, where instability could be especially pronounced.
Other models, however, suggest that the depression is located somewhat further east, focusing on the Balearic archipelagoWith this scenario, rainfall would be more restricted to the islands, and the Mediterranean coast of the Iberian Peninsula would remain largely unaffected, maintaining a drier but cooler environment.
In parallel, Meteored also highlights the role of the remnants of Storm Theresewhich could still bring some showers to Andalusia before dissipating completely, as well as the influence of cold air aloft on the Increased rainfall in the Cantabrian region, Navarre, the northern Iberian System and the Pyrenees between Saturday and Sunday.
Rain, snow and cold: distribution by zones in Spain
Beyond the uncertainty associated with the DANA (isolated high-level depression), the general pattern drawn by Aemet allows us to outline a fairly clear territorial division of the rain, snow and temperatures on the key days of Holy Week:
- Northern half of the Iberian Peninsula and the Pyrenees: Cloudy or overcast skies with frequent rains, more intense on the Cantabrian coast, and snowfall above 1.000-1.200 meters in the main mountain ranges (Pyrenees, Cantabrian Mountains and sections of the Iberian System).
- Peninsular center: Predominantly clear or partly cloudy skies, but with cold weather and nighttime frosts in plateau and mountain areas. Maximum temperatures will be around 18-20 ºC in the south-central region and clearly lower values ​​in the northern interior.
- East and Southeast (Valencian Community, Murcia, eastern Andalusia): Weather initially more stable, although with chance of showers If the DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) or Mediterranean low-pressure systems approach close enough, episodes of heavy rain are possible, especially along the coast.
- Balearics: Area particularly vulnerable to deterioration. An increase is expected. increased instability Starting on Palm Sunday, with showers that may be strongholds in the Pitiusas and snow at high altitudes in the Tramuntana mountain range if the cold air takes hold.
- Andalusia and southern peninsula: Skies in general partly cloudyTemperatures will be slightly higher than elsewhere, but still cool for this time of year, especially at night. In areas of the Strait of Gibraltar and the Alboran Sea, the possibility of [unclear - possibly "high temperatures" or "high temperatures"] cannot be ruled out. light drizzle.
- Canary Islands: Following the devastation of Cyclone Therese, the archipelago enters a phase of greater stabilityWith light and scattered rain, especially in the western islands and Gran Canaria, and temperatures without major changes, around 22ºC maximum and 17ºC minimum.
This mosaic of situations makes it clear that There will not be a widespread storm affecting all of Spain equally.but rather a scenario of contrasts: the north and Balearic Islands are more unstable and colder compared to a south and southwest that are relatively calm but with a cooler than usual atmosphere.
Furthermore, Aemet already warns that Wind will be a factor to consider In numerous locations: the cierzo and tramontana winds will blow strongly in the Ebro valley, Empordà , the Catalan coast and the Balearic Islands, while in mountain areas very strong gusts are expected, which may complicate both the thermal sensation and the development of some outdoor events.
As Holy Week progresses, medium-term scenarios suggest that, except in the area of Bay of Biscay and northern Navarrewhere the rains could resume until the first half of Holy Wednesday, Much of peninsular Spain would tend towards greater stabilitywith the gradual arrival of the anticyclone and a rise in temperatures towards warmer values.
Taken together, the information available so far paints a picture of Easter holidays marked by A cold start, with snow in the mountains and rain concentrated in the north and Balearic IslandsA possible increase in instability in the east if the DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) is confirmed, followed by a trend towards somewhat milder weather, although without excessive heat. Given this situation, more than ever, it will be crucial to closely monitor AEMET's daily updates before organizing processions, trips, or outdoor excursions.
