If you're afraid of turbulence, you'll probably stop flying so much in a few years. Because Climate change will increase the risk of severe turbulence by 149%. according to a study published in Advances in Atmospheric SciencesThis significant increase in the likelihood of experiencing severe turbulence on commercial flights is due to changes in the atmosphere that are generating more intense variations in the direction and strength of wind currents.
What is turbulence?
From here, from the ground, it seems that the air is more or less still, right? However, this is not so. The air is in continuous movement: sometimes it is uniform, but in some areas disturbances appear in the form of eddies. When an airplane passes through any of these turbulent areas, we may have the sensation that it is traveling on a road with many potholes, or a sudden sensation of heaviness or lightness.We call this turbulence. This doesn't mean the plane is going to stop flying, but rather that it's simply in an area where the air is unstable.
Will flying be dangerous in the future?
Turbulence can cause us (myself included) a significant feeling of anxiety, to the point that if we see that the sky is going to be cloudy on the day of departure, or if a cold or warm front is approaching, we decide to change the flight, so yes, we will have to be on alert in the coming years.
In fact, according to this research severe turbulence will increase by 149%, moderate-severe by 127%, moderate by 94% and light-moderate by 75%. Paul Williams, one of the study's authors, said that "even for the most experienced travelers the 149% increase in severe turbulence is cause for alarm."
The impact of climate change on turbulence
Climate change is causing a significant increase in the frequency and severity of turbulence on commercial flights. This phenomenon is largely due to altered jet streams and changing atmospheric conditions. According to a study conducted by the University of Reading, from 1979 to 2020, turbulence on flights over the North Atlantic has increased by 55%This growth not only affects the passenger experience but also increases the risks associated with aviation. If you need information on the impact in other areas, consider reading about Germany and climate change.
One of the most worrying effects of this phenomenon is that the clear air turbulence (clear air turbulence, CAT), which were previously difficult to predict, are becoming more common. These turbulences, unlike those associated with thunderstorms, occur in clear skies and are very difficult to detect with traditional radars. This is related to the variability of the current climate.
Factors contributing to increased turbulence
There are several factors that are contributing to this increase in turbulent phenomena:
- Global warming: As the Earth's temperature increases, so does the energy in the atmosphere, causing more intense air movements and causing instability.
- Change in jet streams: The jet stream, which moves at high altitudes, is affected by temperature differences between the equatorial and polar regions. This movement can intensify turbulence in certain regions, making it more frequent and severe.
- Wind shear variability: The change in wind speed and direction with altitude can increase significantly, intensifying turbulence in areas with clear skies. One aspect that increases the complexity of this turbulence is the unusual weather patterns.
- Anomalous weather patterns: Climate change alters global weather patterns, which can result in extreme events that don't occur in areas accustomed to more stable conditions. For more context on this topic, see the article on .
Economic and security consequences
Increased turbulence not only affects passenger comfort; it also has significant economic repercussions for the aviation industry. Airlines face additional costs due to:
- Aircraft repairs: Although aircraft are designed to withstand a certain amount of turbulence, extreme conditions can cause damage that requires costly repairs. This can be compared to what sectors such as aviation and aviation face. Deserts and their threat from global warming.
- Flight delays: Unexpected turbulence can force aircraft to divert their route, resulting in increased flight time and fuel consumption.
- Injuries on board: Historically, severe turbulence has been linked to injuries to passengers and crew, increasing airline liability.
- Increase in emissions: Longer routes due to turbulence-related diversions mean higher fuel usage, which contributes to the airline industry's carbon footprint.
Development of mitigation technologies
Faced with the growing challenge posed by turbulence, the aviation industry is investing in technologies to improve the detection and prediction of these phenomena. This is comparable to the adaptation efforts being made in many areas, as outlined in the adaptation of plants to climate change.
For example, the use of technologies based on artificial intelligence y advanced sensors allows airlines to anticipate turbulence more accurately. These systems can improve the efficiency of air routes by helping pilots avoid areas of severe turbulence. For more information on how aviation is being affected, we recommend reviewing the impact of global warming in cities.
La NASA and other agencies are developing methods such as LiDAR, which uses laser pulses to measure air conditions at a great distance from the aircraft, providing vital information about possible turbulence and allowing adjustments to altitude or trajectory.
What can passengers do?
For passengers, it is essential to take certain precautionary measures. Some recommendations include:
- Use of seat belt: It is crucial to keep your seatbelt fastened throughout the flight, even when the seatbelt off sign is off, as turbulence can occur at any time.
- Select seats strategically: Choosing a seat near the wings can help reduce the feeling of turbulence.
- Pay attention to the crew's instructions: Following the recommendations given during the flight can make the experience safer.
As climate change continues to impact aviation, turbulence will become inevitable in the future. Airlines' adaptation and use of advanced technology will be key to minimizing its impact on the flight experience.
The aviation landscape is changing, and with it, the need to stay informed about how climate change and turbulence are altering the way we fly. The key will be constant innovation and ongoing updates to safety standards as we move toward a more unstable future in the air.
