Medicane Numa: The Mediterranean cyclone impacting Greece and climate change

The relatively warm temperatures that the Mediterranean Sea is experiencing this year have favored the formation of an atypical cyclone called Numa that has already killed fifteen people in the Attica region, in western Athens, and which has the potential to cause significant damage in the coming days. This phenomenon brings to mind other devastating events such as Libya cyclone, which shows the seriousness of these meteorological phenomena.

This type of Mediterranean cyclones, known as medications, are phenomena that occur very rarely, but when they do, they can be almost as destructive as the hurricanes that hit the coasts of America or Asia. The formation of Numa is generating growing interest in the study of these phenomena, especially with the influence of climate change, which could be causing an increase in their frequency and intensity, similar to what has been observed in the study of other medications.

medicine It is a term that comes from the combination of the words Mediterranean and Hurricane. Despite its name, it should not be confused with typical hurricanes, since the core of the Mediterranean cyclone is cold air, while hurricanes are formed by warm air. This is one of the main differences that distinguishes medicanes from tropical hurricanes. These are atypical low-pressure systems that feed on the accumulated heat of the Mediterranean Sea, and it's important to understand how a low-pressure system forms in order to analyze these phenomena.

Medicanes typically form in autumn and winter when sea temperatures are relatively high, creating the necessary conditions for their development. These phenomena resemble tropical cyclones in their structure, featuring a warm core, but most often do not reach the intensity or duration of hurricanes in other parts of the world. For more details, you can check out how these cyclones form on our website. what autumn will be like.

Numa, due to the combination of the cold air of its core and the warm water of the Mediterranean, is leaving torrential rains and causing a devastating impact on the region. It is expected that The medicane is accompanied by very strong gusts of wind, reaching up to 200 kilometers per hour, especially starting Thursday, with a peak of activity during Saturday and Sunday. This could be similar to the effects of other medicanes that have affected the region, including Mediterranean winds.

Meteorological projections indicate that the most affected area will be the one located between the Ionian Sea and the Southern Balkans, where up to 400 millimeters of accumulated precipitation can be recordedTo put this into context, 1 millimeter of rainwater is equivalent to 1 liter of water per square meter. This amount of precipitation can cause severe flooding, landslides, and significant damage to infrastructure, similar to the rains and floods that have occurred in Greece in the past.

So far, Numa has killed 15 people and left many more missing. Authorities are issuing alerts and recommendations to the public, urging them to stay away from flood-prone areas and follow the instructions of emergency services. We hope these numbers do not increase further.

In Spain, we are experiencing one of the worst droughts in the country's history. Unfortunately, it has been confirmed that Neither the Iberian peninsula nor the Balearic nor Canary archipelagos will receive a single drop of NumaDrought conditions have affected agriculture and increased the vulnerability of many communities to the possibility of forest fires, further complicating the situation in the country. This impact is reflected in the analysis of the current climate situation in the region.

This year, Mediterranean waters have reached anomalous temperatures that, on the one hand, favor the creation of phenomena like Numa, but on the other, exacerbate the extreme weather conditions we are experiencing. Rising sea temperatures have been correlated with the frequency and intensity of these cyclone events, highlighting the need for further study of how climate change is affecting the weather in the Mediterranean region, as well as how it may influence other future crises. in weather patterns.

Climate change is influencing the occurrence and intensity of medicanes. Recent studies indicate that in the future, Medicanes could be more frequent, but their structures could become more robust and harmfulThis is because the warming of the Mediterranean waters facilitates the conditions for its development and the generation of energy necessary to intensify, as analyzed in the context of the climate change and extreme events.

A study published in the magazine Geophysical Research Letters suggests that while the number of events may decrease, future medicanes will tend to reach higher categories, possibly even Category 1 hurricanes. This could result in stronger winds and more intense rainfall, increasing the potential for damage to coastal communities, similar to what has been observed with previous events.

This raises additional concerns about the preparedness and resilience of infrastructure and populations in the Mediterranean basin, as an increase in the intensity of these events may exceed current disaster response capacity. These changes bring with them the need to reevaluate how we prepare for these extreme weather events. The importance of thoroughly studying the impact of climate change is emphasized. warming of the Atlantic to be able to anticipate and mitigate its effects.

Despite their name, the medications They should not be considered true hurricanes. Although they share some characteristics with tropical cyclones, there are key differences in their formation and structure. For example, medicanes generally do not reach the strength of a Category 1 hurricane or higher, and their warm core is shallower.

Compared to Atlantic hurricanes, which feed on warm waters, medicanes depend on a more complex atmospheric environment involving interactions with high and low pressure systems, making them less predictable and more difficult to track. However, their impact on coastal areas can be significant, generating intense rainfall and destructive winds, an aspect that has been analyzed in studies of natural disasters in the Mediterranean region.

Several medicanes have been recorded in recent years, including Ianos in 2020, which was notable for reaching Category 2 intensity. This event marked a turning point, as it became evident that climate change was influencing the formation of these phenomena. In recent history, other medicanes such as Xenophon and Zorbas have also wreaked havoc in the Mediterranean region, causing human losses and property damage.

The Numa case has drawn particular attention, not only for the deaths and damage it has caused, but also for its ability to intensify in a short period of time. This has led to an increased focus on research into medicanes, with the aim of better understanding their dynamics and predicting their future impact, which is essential for preparing for potential climate crises.

With rising global temperatures and changing weather patterns, medicans are likely to become a growing concern for Mediterranean countries. It is essential that mitigation and adaptation strategies are implemented to address the risks associated with these meteorological phenomena, such as the one we are currently facing.

Governments and meteorological agencies must be prepared to respond with more effective early warning systems and better infrastructure to minimize the impact of medicanes on human life and the economy, as well as in the case of the rainy season, which could be crucial in the face of events like Numa. Education and public awareness about the risks associated with these phenomena are also crucial to ensuring the preparedness of coastal communities.