Recently, astronomers around the world have focused their attention on the asteroid 2024 YR4, a space object whose study has raised unprecedented concerns and challenges for planetary defense. Although it was initially thought to pose a danger to Earth, The latest observations confirm that it will not impact our planet, but it could hit the Moon in December 2032.This scenario has led the international scientific community to activate unprecedented protocols and debate their possible effects on our daily lives.
El 2024 YR4 It was discovered in late December 2024 using surveillance systems such as ATLAS in Chile and Hawaii. It is a rock of dimensions between 53 and 67 meters in diameter, similar to the size of the asteroid that triggered the Tunguska event in Siberia in the early 20th century. Given its potential mass and speed, The impact on the lunar surface could be the largest recorded in more than five thousand years, according to estimates by international experts.
From alarm to monitoring: How the 2024 YR4 threat changed
The initial discovery of the asteroid generated an unprecedented deployment in space agencies. The first estimates placed the probability of impact with the Earth at around 3%, which led to the activation of protocols global alert and the coordinated work of NASA, ESA and other institutions. However, thanks to detailed observations with the james webb space telescope and other instruments ruled out any danger to our planet. Now, attention has shifted to the risk of a collision with the Moon, the probability of which was recently raised to 4,3%.
Scientific interest has increased as it has been noted that, if the impact occurs, The resulting crater could be up to a kilometer in diameter. and release an amount of energy equivalent to tens of tons of TNT. The peculiarity of 2024 YR4 also lies in its origin: it comes from a less common region of the asteroid belt and its trajectory has surprised even experts in orbital dynamics.
The risks: debris and a meteor shower in Earth's orbit
One of the highlights of the latest reports is the risk to satellitesIn the event of an impact, it is estimated that Up to 100 million tons of debris could be ejected into space, of which 10% would reach the vicinity of the Earth in a matter of days. This flow of material would exceed between 10 and 1000 times the usual sporadic meteor flux, putting satellites, spacecraft, and even infrastructure like the future Lunar Gateway in trouble.
According to researcher Paul Wiegert, Most of the fragments would be small enough to disintegrate in the Earth's atmosphere, although its concentration could damage solar panels, optical systems or reduce the lifespan of the devices. The danger would be especially high in the low earth orbit (LEO), where nearly 90% of the global satellite fleet operates.
Scientific models, based on simulations of thousands of potential asteroid trajectories, indicate that the exact location of the lunar impact will be crucial in estimating the risks. If the event occurs at the Moon's trailing edge, the efficiency of debris delivery to Earth and the orbital environment could be maximum.
Implications for planetary defense and space exploration
Episode 2024 YR4 is serving as a veritable “dress rehearsal” for planetary defense. and the international management of cosmic threats. For the first time, the International Asteroid Warning Network, NASA, and the European Space Agency have tested their real-time communication and response systems in a risk scenario. Experts view this case as an opportunity to refine protocols and prepare for future dangers.
In addition to putting satellites, astronauts and lunar missions on alert, the event allows progress to be made in the tracking near-Earth objects and improving prediction models. Next steps will include intensive observation campaigns when the asteroid makes its next approach in 2028, which will serve to refine trajectory predictions and refine mitigation strategies if necessary.
What can we expect in the coming years?
The scientific community will continue to monitor the 2024 YR4 and its periodic close approaches to Earth. The knowledge generated will strengthen the international development in planetary defense and optimize early warning systems to reduce uncertainty about future impacts. Although there is no cause for alarm at this time, studying these events helps anticipate and manage real risks to space infrastructure and operations.
The focus will be on potential effects on satellites and lunar missions, as well as the possibility of observing the impact and the crater, if it ultimately occurs on the satellite's near side. It will also be an opportunity to test asteroid deflection technologies and automated space-based study missions.
