Scientists claim that climate change increases the frequency and intensity of droughts. Therefore, this phenomenon it could cause increasingly frequent and severe droughts in the Júcar basin. This is demonstrated by a methodology designed by researchers from the Polytechnic University of Valencia.
Do you want to know the consequences that climate change will have on the Júcar basin?
More droughts in the Júcar
The methodology designed by the researchers allows us to know the impact that climate change has on the Júcar area. The results of the studies indicate that the droughts will be of less magnitude and intensity than those identified for the medium-term scenarios.
The final conclusion of the study is that which indicates that climate change and its effects cause a globalized scenario in which droughts will be more frequent, both meteorological and hydrological, since the reduction in rainfall and the increase in evapotranspiration due to an increase in global average temperatures.
This methodology has been developed by researchers from the Institute of Water and Environmental Engineering of the Polytechnic University of Valencia (IIAMA-UPV) Patricia Marcos, Antonio López and Manuel Pulido, and has been published in the scientific journal "Journal of Hydrology".
The work is within the IMPADAPT project and the Júcar basin has been used as an object of study, due to the current effect on the drought. To draw clear conclusions, the researchers have compared drought data collected over the decades in the basin and combined with global and regional climate models.
It is important to contrast well the meteorological and hydrological drought data, since both are affected by climate change. The first reduces rainfall throughout the year and the second increases the evaporation of water. In both cases, the amount of water available for human consumption is decreasing due to the context of climate change and droughts in the Júcar basin.
The fact that three different climatic areas coexist in the Júcar basin has also been considered. On the one hand, we have the upper zone with a continental climate, in the middle basin we have a transitional climate and in the lower one a Mediterranean climate. This spatial variability influences the degree to which the effects of climate change affect the intensity and duration of the drought periods in each one of them.
Since climate change does not affect all climate zones equally, it is important to have a broader view of the three climatic zones that the Júcar basin has.
"Traditionally, standardized indices have been used to identify and evaluate droughts, due to their simplicity and flexibility to compare the deviation from normal conditions between regions on different time scales," said Patricia Marcos.
Of course, it should be added that these statistical data take into account the presence of seasons to include them in certain aspects of climate variables. These data are highly questionable in the context of climate change, as seasonal conditions are practically reduced to summer and winter.
Important aspects
The methodology developed is adapted to the Mediterranean basins and allows analyzing the impact of climate change on the frequency and intensity of droughts. The variables of precipitation and temperatures are the most determining factors, since they are the ones that reduce water resources. One due to less water input and the other due to greater loss of stored water.
"Our results show great uncertainty regarding the future availability of water resources in the basin. The study shows how the different climate change scenarios lead to a general increase in the duration and intensity of both meteorological and hydrological droughts, due to the combined effects of reduced rainfall and increased evapotranspiration ”, indicates the director of the IIAMA, Manuel Pulido.
The droughts observed in the short term are less than those that will be seen in the medium term, so if we are now in a serious situation, the future that awaits us is even worse.
