The advance of cold front 11 and associated polar air mass It is bringing much more wintry weather to much of Mexico, with gusts of wind, rain and a sharp drop in temperatures from the north to the southeast of the country.
In addition to the cool environment, the system activates a North event which will intensify the waves in sectors of the Gulf of Mexico and in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec, while Civil Protection asks take extreme precautions due to risks on the coast and highway.
Evolution and areas with more wind
During the next few hours, the front will move across the north and northeastinteracting with the subtropical jet stream and generating strong to very strong winds: 65-80 km / h with dust devils in Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosístreaks of 40-60 km / h en Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas and Aguascalientes, Y de 35-50 km / h en Baja California, Baja California Sur and Sonora.
As for the rain, it is expected showers with thunderstorms en San Luis Potosí (Media and Huasteca) y southern Tamaulipas, and isolated showers en Coahuila and Nuevo León; a typical situation when the cold air mass advances and encounters humidity from the Gulf.
Rain, high waves and a northerly wind event
The front and low-pressure troughs, fed by moist air from the Pacific, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean, will leave heavy rainfall en Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas, Papaloapan and Olmeca), northern Oaxaca y western and central Tabasco; in addition to rain Very strong in regions of Puebla and other areas of Veracruz such as Huasteca Alta, Huasteca Baja, Totonaca and Nautla.
A is activated North 65-75 km/h with gusts of 85-100 km / h and waves of 3 4-m on the coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruzstreaks of 65-80 km / h at the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec, and winds of 25-35 km / h with gusts of 40-60 km / h and waves of 1,5 2,5-m en Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán, with nighttime increase of the waves.
With this scenario, the following may occur landslidesrising rivers and streams, flooding in low-lying areas, and falling trees or advertisements due to intense gusts; authorities recommend following the warnings of SMN-Conagua and Civil Protection and not take risks in exposed roads nor on coastlines.
Temperatures: widespread cold and frost
It is expected a marked temperature drop in much of the country. There will be minimum temperatures of -5 to 0 ºC with frosts in mountain ranges of Baja California, Chihuahua and Durango, Y de 0 to 5 ºC in mountains of Sonora, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca.
The Mexico's valleyIt will dawn cold or very cold in higher areas, with possible frost. Mexico City points to minimums of 7-9 ºC and maxims of 21-23 ºC; In Toluca are estimated 3-5 ºC minimum and 18-20 ºC maximum temperature, with north and northeast winds gusts of 35-50 km/h.
In contrast, they will persist maximum temperatures of 35-40 ºC en Baja California Sur, Sonora, southwest Chihuahua, west Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero, Y de 30-35 ºC en Baja California, Oaxaca and Chiapas (coast), Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
Incidents and local measures
In the Isthmus, authorities anticipate very strong wind moving towards the Gulf of Tehuantepec With choppy seas and high waves; therefore, they recommend coastal fishing suspend departures until it subsides.
La Salina Cruz Port Authority Navigation has been closed to larger vessels and a red flag has been raised, and adverse wind conditions are anticipated during around 48 hours in the wind corridor.
On the road La Ventosa–La Venta could be applied truck restrictions (especially with empty boxes) due to the risk of tipping over. In mountainous areas of The Chimalapas and Zapotec-Mixe regionIt is advised to shelter minors and adults in the face of the temperature drop.
Precipitation forecast by region
To facilitate planning, the following details are provided: areas with a higher probability of rain and its estimated intensity according to the SMN:
- Intense (75-150 mm): Veracruz (Los Tuxtlas, Papaloapan, Olmeca), northern Oaxaca, western and central Tabasco.
- Very strong (50-75 mm): Puebla (Sierra Norte, Sierra Nororiental, Valle Serdán and Tehuacán–Sierra Negra) and regions of Veracruz (Huasteca Alta, Huasteca Baja, Totonaca and Nautla).
- Strong (25-50 mm): Hidalgo (Huasteca, Sierra Alta and Sierra de Tenango), Guerrero coast, Veracruz (Sotavento, Capital and Las Montañas) and Chiapas (north and south).
- Showers (5-25 mm): southern Tamaulipas, San Luis Potosí (Media and Huasteca), Querétaro (Sierra Gorda), Tlaxcala, Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
- Isolated showers (0,1-5 mm): San Luis Potosí (Highlands and Central Region), Hidalgo (Sierra Gorda, Sierra Baja, Tulancingo Valley and Pulque Highlands), Puebla (Angelópolis), Nuevo León, Guanajuato, State of Mexico and Nayarit.
Forecast wind and waves
The episode of North and swell It will require special attention on the coasts and ports of the Gulf; these are the expected ranges:
- North 65-75 km/h with gusts of 85-100 km / h and waves of 3 4-m: coasts of Tamaulipas and Veracruz.
- North 35-50 km/h with gusts of 65-80 km / hOaxaca and Chiapas (Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec), intensifying in the afternoon-evening; high waves at night in Tehuantepec.
- North 25-35 km/h with gusts of 40-60 km / h: coasts of Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán, with waves of 1,5 2,5-m and increase in the early morning.
- Inland gusts50-70 km/h in San Luis Potosí; 35-50 km/h in Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, CDMX, Tlaxcala and Puebla.
Evolution schedule
Wednesday: the front moves rapidly across the Gulf slope and activates showers and heavy rain from the northeast to the southeast, with heavy rainfall en Veracruz, Oaxaca and TabascoOccasionally, and on high peaks, it cannot be ruled out. snow or sleet en Pico de Orizaba y Perote's Chest during the night-early morning.
Thursday: the system extends over the southeast and the Yucatan Peninsula...maintaining rain and the Norte event, with gusts of 80-90 km / h in the Isthmus and 40-60 km / h on the Gulf coast; the The waves will gradually subside. gradually throughout the day.
Friday: the front moves to Caribbean Sea and ceases to have a direct effect, while the polar mass slowly modifiesallowing for a rise in maximum temperatures, although with cold mornings and isolated frosts in high areas.
The situation is marked by strong winds, significant waves, and substantial rainfall in different states, along with a general drop in temperature; it is advisable to stay tuned to the weather reports SMN-Conagua and Civil Protection and adjust travel and maritime or outdoor activities to the windows for improvement that they confirm the official announcements.
