The arrival of cold front 37 and its Arctic air mass This is causing a dramatic shift in the weather across much of Mexico, with stark contrasts between regions. While the north and northeast are expected to experience rain, strong winds, and freezing temperatures, the west and south are still feeling the heat, with temperatures typical of midsummer.
According to the warnings of National Meteorological Service (SMN) and ConaguaThis frontal system will move across the northwest, north, northeast, Gulf of Mexico, east, and southeast of the country in a few days, eventually affecting the Yucatán Peninsula as well. In its path, it will leave heavy rainfall, a "Norte" wind event, high waves, and very low temperatures in mountainous areas, without ruling out snow or sleet in the northern mountains.
How and when will cold front 37 arrive?
According to the SMN's multi-day forecast, the Cold front number 37 begins to make itself felt from the northwestInitially moving over Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, and Durango. In this first phase, the system combines with the polar and subtropical jet streamsThis favors very strong winds and the dragging of much colder air of Arctic origin.
During the day of sábado 21 de febreroThe front is advancing rapidly towards the north and northeast of the country, already clearly pushed by a Arctic-polar air massThis cold air mass is responsible for the sharp drop in temperature expected in the north, northeast, east, center and southeast, with negative values in numerous mountain areas.
Between Sunday and MondayThe frontal system extends along the Gulf of Mexico slope and continues its movement towards the southeast and the Yucatan PeninsulaDuring this phase, rainfall intensifies in Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas, and Tabasco, while the north wind strengthens along the Gulf coast and in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec.
This new front adds to the previous presence of cold front 36 and other atmospheric systems such as dry lines and low-pressure troughs, which were already destabilizing the weather in the north of the country. The combination of all of these, along with the subtropical jet stream, further intensifies the phenomena of rain, wind, and a drop in temperatures.
States affected and system trajectory
The SMN details that the Cold front 37 will travel across a wide range of states over several days. In its initial phase, the main impacts are concentrated in the northwest and north: Baja California, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango and Baja California Surwhere very strong gusts of wind, dust storms and the possibility of snow or sleet are expected in mountain areas.
As the system extends northeastward and into the Sierra Madre Oriental, the rains and temperature drop reach Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosíespecially in mountainous regions and the Huasteca. In these areas, rainfall may occur in the form of showers and thunderstorms, with electrical activity and very significant wind gusts.
The front continues its advance through the eastern and central-eastern parts of the country, affecting Querétaro, Hidalgo and Pueblawhere rain of varying intensity is expected, along with cold conditions in the higher altitude areas. Later, the instability will intensify upon reaching the Gulf of Mexico and the Southeast, having a strong impact on Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabasco.
In the following days, the system also encompassed the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec and extends towards the Yucatan peninsula, with effects on Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana RooIn this region, rainfall is combined with episodes of strong winds and rough seas, which can complicate navigation and coastal activities.
Overall, it is a front with a broad route that runs from northwest to southeastmodulating the weather in almost all regions of the country: from the northern mountains, through the Central Plateau, to the Gulf and Caribbean coasts.
Rainfall associated with cold front 37
Cloud cover and precipitation will be among the most prominent features of this weather event. During the peak activity phase, the National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts heavy rains in southeastern states such as Veracruz, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Tabascowhere the accumulations can be significant and accompanied by thunderstorms.
In the eastern and central-eastern regions, the following are expected very heavy rains in Puebla and episodes of heavy rain in San Luis Potosí, Querétaro and Hidalgoespecially in mountainous areas such as the Sierra Gorda, Sierra Alta, Sierra Nororiental, or the Huasteca. In these areas, the topography allows clouds to release more water in a short period of time.
Towards the Yucatan Peninsula and other southeastern states, the front leaves heavy rains in Campeche and Quintana Roo, plus Showers in Tlaxcala and YucatánAlthough in some cases the rainfall will be more intermittent, it may cause flooding and localized problems in urban areas.
In parallel, the following are expected moderate to heavy rain in territories such as Nuevo León, Tamaulipas and parts of the Central Plateauas well as in the Yucatan Peninsula, where the entry of moisture and the front itself generate episodes of scattered but locally intense precipitation.
Authorities insist that many of these rains They may be accompanied by electrical discharges and gusts of wind, increasing the risk of landslides, flash floods of rivers and streams, flooding in low-lying areas, and damage to rural roads.
Wind, "Norte" event and high waves
One of the most striking phenomena associated with cold front 37 will be the "Norte" event on the Gulf of Mexico coast and the Isthmus of TehuantepecAs the mass of cold air moves over the Gulf, the wind intensifies considerably, with gusts that can easily exceed 80 km/h in some coastal areas.
Forecasts indicate that, at the most adverse moments of the episode, the following could be recorded: gusts of 80 to 100 km/h, even up to 110 km/h in points of Tamaulipas, Veracruz and the Isthmus of TehuantepecThese speeds are sufficient to knock down trees, poles, precarious structures, and billboards.
Before the front consolidates over the Gulf, the following are already expected strong gusts of 50 to 70 km/h in the northeast, particularly affecting Tamaulipas and part of Nuevo Leónin addition to generating dust storms and reducing visibility on roads Durango, Coahuila and San Luis Potosí.
The north wind also comes accompanied by high waves on the coasts of the Gulf of Mexico and the Gulf of Tehuantepecwhere rough seas and difficult conditions for small craft are expected. In areas such as the conurbation of Veracruz-Boca del RíoThe maritime storm can pose an added risk to coastal infrastructure and port activities.
Therefore, the Civil Protection services have activated special warnings, recommending Avoid approaching strong waves, secure loose objects on rooftops and terraces and be aware of any indications regarding possible port closures to navigation.
Drop in temperatures and Arctic frosts
The drop in temperatures will be another direct consequence of the passing front. associated arctic air mass The system will cause a cold to very cold environment in the north, northeast, center and east of the country, with severe frosts in mountain areas.
In the mountains of Chihuahua and Durango, are predicted minimum values between -10 and -5 ºC, with frost during the early morning and the early morning hours. These freezing conditions can also extend to higher elevations Baja California, Sonora, Coahuila, and Nuevo Leónwhere the readings will fall below 0°C.
In mountainous regions of the Central Plateau and the center of the country, including areas of Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Michoacán, Guanajuato, Querétaro, Hidalgo, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla, Veracruz and Oaxaca, are expected minimum temperatures from 0 to 5 ºCwith a very cold atmosphere in the early morning and dawn.
In contrast to the drop in minimum temperatures, during the central hours of the day the cold air will significantly reduce maximum temperatures across much of the north and northeast, resulting in a winter or near-winter wind chillespecially in areas exposed to strong winds.
These conditions necessitate extreme caution in mountain and rural communities, where the Frosts can affect crops, basic infrastructure and the health of the most vulnerable populationespecially the elderly, children, and those suffering from respiratory illnesses.
Heat wave and thermal contrast in the west and south
Despite the arrival of cold air, the country is not entirely free of the heat. Simultaneously with the passage of the front, a anticyclonic system at mid and high levels of the atmosphere will maintain stable weather and high temperatures in large areas of the west, south and some coastal areas.
The call The heat wave persists with greater intensity in states such as Jalisco, Michoacán, Guerrero, and Colima., where they are expected highs between 35 and 45 ºCEspecially in coastal regions and lower-lying inland areas. The weather will be muggy and dry in many of these areas.
At the Isthmus of Oaxaca and Chiapasthe thermometers will be able to reach extreme values of 40 to 45 ºCwith a stifling heat. Temperatures of 35 to 40 ºC in Pacific coastal states such as Sinaloa, Nayarit and Guerrero, as well as in parts of Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Morelos, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo.
At a slightly lower, but still hot, level are areas of Sonora (south), Chihuahua (southwest), Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Guanajuato, Querétaro and Hidalgo, with maximum temperatures forecast to be 30 to 35 ºC. On the whole, the country will experience a kind of "divide in two", with frozen regions in the north and others that are almost summery in the south and west.
This dual climate means that the population must adapt to very different conditions within a few hundred kilometersgoing from coats and scarves in mountainous areas to light clothing and constant hydration in coastal and jungle areas.
Impact on the Gulf of Mexico, coastline and Yucatan Peninsula
El Gulf of Mexico and its coastal strip They will be key players during the passage of cold front 37. In states like Tamaulipas and VeracruzThe arrival of the system will trigger heavy to very heavy rains, thunderstorms with lightning and a particularly intense North wind event.
In the metropolitan area of Veracruz-Boca del RíoThe models indicate wind gusts that could reach or exceed 100 km/h, accompanied by high waves and rough seasThe State Civil Protection Secretariat has issued a Gray Alert given the risk of damage to the coast and a marked drop in temperature.
Further south, in the Isthmus and Gulf of TehuantepecVery strong winds, channeled by the terrain, are also expected, with violent gusts that could disrupt heavy vehicle traffic and port operations. These adverse conditions could persist from Sunday night into part of Monday.
In Yucatan peninsulaThe front will arrive somewhat later than in the north, but it will still leave heavy rains in Campeche and Quintana RooIn addition to showers in Yucatán. All of this will combine with a still hot environment in large areas, favoring episodes of very humid and muggy weather.
Authorities insist on the need for citizens Pay attention to official notices regarding port closures, navigation restrictions, and possible preventative evacuations. in coastal areas vulnerable to flooding and storm surges.
Risks, recommendations and situation in large cities
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the various Civil Protection agencies have reiterated that the heavy rains and strong winds linked to cold front 37 They can lead to a wide range of incidents, from mobility problems to damage to infrastructure and power outages.
Among the main dangers are the sudden increase in river and stream levels, with the consequent possibility of landslides, waterlogging and flooding in low-lying areas and neighborhoods near waterways. There is also a warning about the risk of landslides. trees, branches, billboards and poles due to the stronger gusts of wind.
In large urban centers and metropolitan areas, the combination of wind, rain, and low temperatures can complicate traffic, increase the risk of road accidents, and worsen existing conditions. air pollution problems when the anticyclone dominates, as is the case of Mexico's valleywhere more stable and warmer weather is expected, but with less dispersion of pollutants.
Weather and emergency services recommend Appropriate clothing in cold areas, special attention to vulnerable populations and to keep the home prepared for possible power outages or water cuts. In areas of extreme heat, the importance of Maintain good hydration, avoid prolonged sun exposure during the middle of the day and take care of children and the elderly.
This episode of cold front 37 highlights, once again, how a single system can simultaneously generate extreme weather phenomenasuch as severe frosts, torrential rains, dangerous waves and sweltering heat