According to the latest warnings from National Meteorological Service (SMN) and ConaguaThe new front will not arrive alone. It will be accompanied by troughs, dry lines, and jet streams which, combined with the moisture brought in by the oceans, will result in a very changeable weather scenario: cold mornings, warm afternoons in some areas, and episodes of rain, thunderstorms, hail, and even possible whirlpools in the northeast.
When will cold front 39 arrive and how will it move?
Weather models indicate that the New cold front 39 It will begin its incursion into Mexican territory during the early Thursday morning, entering from the northwest. From there, it will move relatively slowly over the northwest and north of the country, at least between Thursday, March 5th and Friday, March 6th.
In this initial phase, the frontal system will be combined with a polar trough at height and with the polar and subtropical jet stream, a mechanism that usually triggers the strong to very strong gusts of wind and the drop in temperatures, especially in mountainous regions and northern states.
The official forecast indicates that, during the early Thursday morningThe front will already be defined over the northwest of the country and will advance northward. As it extends, it will merge with other systems such as dry lines and instability at high levelsthus reinforcing the time contrasts between day and night.
The movement of the front is expected to be broad enough to affect, to varying degrees, areas of the North Pacific, Northern Highlands and part of the NortheastMeanwhile, in the central and southeastern parts of the country, the impact will be more indirect, mainly linked to the combination of low-pressure channels and the influx of moisture.
States where the temperature will drop the most
The most striking effect of cold front 39 The forecast calls for a sharp drop in temperatures across several northern and central states. The forecast for early Thursday and Friday mornings indicates... very low minimum temperatures with frost in mountain ranges and high areas.
The cold will also intensify in the mountain ranges of Baja California, Sonora and Zacatecas, where they are expected temperatures of -5 to 0 ºC with frost during the early morning hours. Furthermore, the forecast extends this range of minimum temperatures to State of Mexico, Hidalgo and Pueblaespecially in the higher areas.
On a slightly less extreme, but equally cold, level are states such as Jalisco, where records are anticipated of 0 to 5 ºC in mountainous areasIn many of these territories, the contrast between the early hours of the day and the afternoon will be noticeable, with cold mornings and mild or even warm afternoons.
In mid- and low-altitude cities in the north and center of the country, the atmosphere will be from cool to cold at dawn, with the possibility of fog banks in valleys and sections of roads, while in the afternoon the weather will tend to be milder, although with the wind still present in large areas.
Gusts of wind, waves and associated risks
One of the most prominent features of cold front 39 It will be the wind. The interaction of the frontal system with the polar trough and jet stream will generate strong to very strong gusts in much of northern and northwestern Mexico.
En Chihuahua Winds with gusts of up to 80 km/hwhile in states like Durango, Nuevo León and Tamaulipas The streaks could be in the range of 50 to 70 km / hFurthermore, in the north of Coahuila and Nuevo León is kept the probability of vortex formation associated with the presence of a dry line and instability in the upper layers of the atmosphere.
Strong winds are also expected, with gusts of 40 to 60 km / h, Baja California (including the Gulf), Sonora, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes, San Luis Potosí, Jalisco, Guanajuato, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche and Yucatán. In Baja California Sur, Sinaloa, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Quintana Roo the streaks will hover around 30 to 50 km / h.
Along the North Pacific coast, the passage of the system will bring significant wavesA sea is expected 2 to 3 meters high on the western coast of Baja California and 1 to 2 meters off the coast of Baja California Sur and in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These conditions can complicate navigation for smaller vessels and favor undertows and rip currents.
Authorities warn that the strong gusts of wind could cause the fall of trees, branches and advertisementsin addition to generating dust devils and reduced visibility on roads in the north of the country, something to bear in mind for road transport and long-distance travel.
Heavy rain, storms, and areas of greater instability
Although cold front 39 brings a general drop in temperature to the north and parts of the center, it will also be associated with an episode of significant rainfall, especially in combination with low-pressure channels and the continuous influx of moisture from the Pacific Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Caribbean Sea.
The SMN forecasts heavy rains with very heavy accumulations (50 to 75 mm) en San Luis Potosí, Hidalgo and Chiapaswhere it is possible that the storms will be accompanied by electrical discharges, hail of varying sizes, and intense gusts of windIn these areas, rainfall could cause rapid flooding of streams and waterlogging in urban areas.
In states like Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Guanajuato, Querétaro, State of Mexico, Tlaxcala, Puebla and Oaxaca are predicted Showers with isolated heavy downpours (between 25 and 50 mm). During Wednesday night and Thursday morning, a dry line over Coahuila It will already be generating showers, thunderstorms and possible hail in the northeast.
They are also expected intervals of showers (5 to 25 mm) en Michoacán, Morelos, Mexico City, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo. In addition, there will be isolated showers in states like Durango, Sinaloa, Nayarit, Jalisco, Zacatecas, Aguascalientes and Guerrero, as well as in some parts of the Baja California peninsula.
This rainfall pattern will be reinforced by the presence of low pressure channels in the interior of the country and by the atmospheric instability at high levels, which favor the development of Storm clouds throughout the afternoon and early evening in large regions.
Valley of Mexico and central cities: turbulent times
At the Mexico's valleyThursday is shaping up to be a somewhat changeable day. A Partly cloudy skies in the morning, with atmosphere Cold and fog banks in high areas of the region. As the day progresses, the weather will tend to be mild to warm, although instability will remain.
For CDMX They wait afternoon showers, which could be accompanied by electrical discharges and possible hailstormsThe minimum temperature will be around 10 to 12 ºC, while the maximum will be between 23 and 25 ° Cwhich will result in a mild temperature feeling during the middle of the day.
At the Estado de Méxicoand particularly in areas such as TolucaThe scenario will be similar but somewhat colder. A minimum temperature of 2 to 4 ºC and a maximum of 20 to 22 ºC, with isolated heavy rains In the afternoon, they may also be accompanied by hail and thunderstorms, especially in mountainous areas.
The wind in the Valley of Mexico region will blow from with speeds of 10 to 25 km/h and gusts that can reach 50 km/hThis, along with the showers, can cause a temporary reduction in visibility and the falling of branches or small, poorly secured objects.
In other areas of the central part of the country, such as Querétaro, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala and PueblaThe morning weather will be cool to cold, with fog in higher elevations and a chance of heavy rain and showers During the afternoon and evening, within the general context of instability associated with the front and low-pressure channels.
Thermal contrasts and persistence of the heat wave
Despite the arrival of cold front 39 And while temperatures will drop in the north and some areas of the center, in other regions of the country it will continue quite hot, creating a scenario of stark contrasts from one state to another and even within the same day.
Conagua maintains its warning heat wave for areas of Michoacán (central and southwest), Guerrero (central), Oaxaca (south and east) and Chiapas (west), where they are expected maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 ºCIn these areas, the daytime heat will still be intense, despite the increase in cloud cover and the possible presence of afternoon showers.
In addition, they are expected maximum temperatures of 35 to 40 ºC en Sinaloa, Coahuila, Nuevo León, Tamaulipas, Morelos, southwestern Puebla, Tabasco, and YucatánIn a slightly smaller range, of 30 to 35 ºCStates such as Baja California Sur, Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Zacatecas (south), Nayarit, Jalisco, Colima, San Luis Potosí, Querétaro, Hidalgo, the southwest of the State of Mexico, Veracruz, Campeche and Quintana Roo.
This combination of high maximum temperatures and very low minimum temperatures in mountainous areas This means many residents will have to adapt to highly variable weather, with cold mornings, hot middays, and unsettled afternoons. It's not uncommon to have to leave home in the coming days with... Warm clothing, something lighter, and an umbrellaall on the same day.
In states like JaliscoAlthough cold front 39 will not impact as directly as in the north, the SMN indicates a Cool to cold conditions with frost in higher areas At the start of the day, the sky clear to partly cloudyIsolated showers and, in the afternoon, a warmer atmosphere with wind gusts of 30 to 50 km/h.
Context of the cold front season
The arrival of cold front number 39 It falls within a particularly busy season. According to official information, the The cold front season began in September 2025 with a forecast of around 48 front systems total.
Some of these challenges have already been felt in recent months, while The rest will continue to affect the country during the first five months of 2026For the period between January and May, the arrival of 25 cold fronts, distributed unevenly throughout the months.
The planned distribution is as follows: Six fronts in January, five in February, six in March, five in April and three in MayCold front 39 is part of this final stretch of the winter season, in which outbreaks of cold air capable of causing severe frosts in high areas and episodes of strong wind and maritime storms are still expected.
These types of systems are common in Mexico's climate and, although they sometimes create complicated situations... torrential rains, river flooding, landslides or snowfallThey also contribute to replenishing reservoirs, moistening soils and, in general, balancing the rainfall regime before the arrival of the hottest and driest period of the year in many regions.
Thus, the irruption of cold front 39 This adds to a succession of systems that, as a whole, have been modulating the weather in the country since autumn, combining in this final phase with episodes of intense heat in the south and southeast, as well as with the usual spring instability in the center and northeast.
Given this scenario, the entry of the cold front 39 This represents a new shift in Mexico's atmospheric dynamics: Very cold early mornings in the north and mountain areas, still warm afternoons in the south and southeast, gusts of wind that may complicate the situation on roads and the coast, and episodes of heavy rain with thunderstorms and hail in numerous states. Staying on top of official announcements and the daily forecast will be key to planning outdoor activities and travel with more time to spare and avoid last-minute surprises.
