According to the latest reports from National Meteorological Service (SMN) And from local Civil Protection agencies, this new frontal system will arrive accompanied by others atmospheric phenomena which will enhance its effects. The combination of cold air, humidity, and high-altitude currents This will lead to an episode of instability that could last for several days, with torrential rain in some regions and possible snowfall in high areas.
Arrival of cold front 41 and atmospheric configuration
According to the extended forecast from the National Meteorological Service, Cold front number 41 will approach northern and northeastern Mexico during the night of Sunday, March 15, 2026.It will do so while the effects of cold front 40, driven by a polar air mass, which keeps the environment cold in much of the territory.
This new front will not arrive in isolation: It will be associated with a dry line in the north of the country, a trough in the middle and upper levels of the atmosphere and with the polar and subtropical jet streamsThe interaction between all these systems will favor the development of clouds with large vertical development, strong gusts of wind and precipitation of varying intensity.
In its initial phase, the system will be implemented through the north and northeast of the Mexican Republicleaving Isolated rain showers and thunderstorms in Nuevo León and Tamaulipasas well as strong winds. Throughout Monday, the front and its associated Arctic air mass will move towards the Gulf of Mexicoextending its effects to the northeast, east and southeast of the country.
Models indicate that, at a national level, the passage of cold front 41 will generate several days of atmospheric instabilityWith episodes of rain, hail in some areas, high waves in coastal areas and a general cooling of the environment, except in some areas of the west, south and southeast where the heat will persist.
States most affected by heavy rain and winds
One of the most striking aspects of this episode will be the amount of rainfall expected in the east and southeast of the countryThe National Meteorological Service (SMN) and other federal agencies have detailed that, starting Sunday night and especially during Monday, very heavy rainfall is expected in several states.
The official forecast indicates the following approximate rainfall totals associated with cold front 41 and the moisture coming from both the Gulf of Mexico and the Pacific Ocean:
- Heavy rains with occasional torrential downpours (150 to 250 mm)Northern Puebla and northern Veracruz. These amounts in 24 hours increase the risk of floods, flash floods, and landslides in mountainous areas.
- Very heavy rain with isolated intense downpours (75 to 150 mm)Northeast and east of Oaxaca, north of Chiapas and south of Tabasco, where the accumulated rainfall could cause damage to rural roads and urban areas with poor drainage.
- Heavy rain with isolated very heavy downpours (50 to 75 mm): Hidalgo state, with the possibility of extensive puddles, fog banks and reduced visibility on roads.
- Showers with isolated heavy rainfall (25 to 50 mm)Campeche, Yucatán and Quintana Roo, where episodes of rain accompanied by electrical activity and gusts of wind are expected.
At the same time, in the north and northeast will be registered very strong gusts of windwith dust storms in states such as Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo León, and Tamaulipas. A “North” event of great intensity in the next few hours, especially on the Gulf of Mexico coast.
Looking ahead to Monday, the scenario points to a "Norte" wind event with gusts of 100 to 120 km/h in Tamaulipas and Veracruz, 80 to 100 km/h in the Isthmus and Gulf of Tehuantepec (Oaxaca and Chiapas), Y de 50 to 70 km/h in Tabasco, Campeche and YucatánThese wind speeds can generate high waves, temporary closure of ports to small vessels, and the falling of branches or poorly anchored objects.
Drop in temperature, frost and possible snow or sleet
In addition to rain and wind, cold front 41 will be accompanied by a marked temperature drop in areas of the north, center, and east of the country. The mass of cold air driving the system will favor very low minimum temperatures during the early morningespecially in mountainous areas.
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) forecasts, for early Monday morning, temperatures from -5 to 0 °C with frost in high areas From Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Coahuila, Nuevo León, San Luis Potosí, Zacatecas, Guanajuato, Michoacán, State of Mexico, Hidalgo, Tlaxcala, Puebla, and Veracruz. In some isolated mountainous areas, such as the Sierra de Chihuahua, temperatures could drop below -5 °C in some locations.
States like Baja California, Aguascalientes, Jalisco, and Oaxaca are anticipating minimum temperatures of 0 to 5 °C in mountainous areasThis will result in a cold environment at dawn, a need to dress warmly, and the possibility of frost forming on exposed surfaces.
The models also include possible snowfall or sleet on volcanic peaks in the center of the countrywhere cold air aloft and available moisture could coincide. Among the mountains with the highest probability are Pico de Orizaba, Cofre de Perote, Popocatépetl, Iztaccíhuatl, Sierra Negra, Nevado de Toluca, and La Malinche.
Meanwhile, in contrast to this wintry atmosphere, A heat wave will persist in some areas of the west and southWith maximum temperatures near or above 35°C in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, Guerrero, Oaxaca, and parts of Chiapas. This strong temperature contrast between north and south will be one of the most striking features of the situation.
Particular situation in Oaxaca and the southeast
In the state of Oaxaca, the State Coordination of Civil Protection and Risk Management It has been reported that, prior to the full arrival of cold front 41, conditions of relative stability prevail, with Warm weather, isolated showers and afternoon dust devils due to a low-pressure trough and moisture coming in from the Pacific.
However, authorities warn of a significant change over time Starting on Monday, when the Cold front 41 and the air mass driving it begin to exert a stronger influence on the region. Several days of atmospheric instabilitywith rain of varying intensity, strong gusts of wind, probability of hail in some areas and high waves on the coast.
are currently registered Maximum temperatures ranging between 30 and 34 °C in areas such as the Isthmus, the Coast and the Papaloapan BasinWhile in the Sierra de Juárez and other mountainous areas, temperatures are cooler, with lows that can reach around 10°C. With the arrival of cold air, a significant drop in temperature is expected, especially during the night and early morning.
Local authorities recommend to the population closely follow official announcements, heed the instructions of Civil Protection and the Port Captaincies and take extra precautions on the road due to possible fog banks, slippery pavement or falling branches.
Throughout the Southeast, including Veracruz, Tabasco, Chiapas and the Yucatan PeninsulaThe front and the North wind event are expected to affect maritime navigation, so temporary restrictions for smaller vessels and recreational activities on the open sea cannot be ruled out.
Cold front season and climate context
The episode of cold front 41 is part of a especially active winter seasonThe forecast predicts the passage of approximately 48 frontal systems over Mexico. This figure coincides with the historical average recorded between 1991 and 2020, according to data from the National Meteorological Service (SMN).
The 2025-2026 cold front season began in September, and From January to May, an estimated 25 systems have been affected.These cold fronts are distributed as follows: six in January, five in February, six in March, five in April, and three in May. This means that, even though the calendar indicates the approach of spring, cold fronts may still occur. even during March, April and Mayalthough its intensity tends to decrease compared to the mid-winter months.
Generally speaking, a cold front It is defined as the boundary between a mass of cold air and another of warm air. The colder, denser air slides beneath the warm air.forcing it to rise. This vertical movement favors the formation of clouds, rain, and, occasionally, severe storms and intense wind events, known in the Gulf of Mexico region as "North".
Among the most common effects associated with these systems are the Temperature drop, rain and drizzle, frost in high areas, high waves and abundant cloud coverIn addition, depending on the available moisture, they can cause snowfall in mountain ranges, cold waves, and hailstorms.
The speed at which they move usually ranges between 40 and 60 kilometers per houralthough it can sometimes be greater. Depending on their intensity, direction, and how they interact with other systems, their effects can last between three and seven days over the national territory.
Civil Protection recommendations for cold front 41
Given the forecast of heavy rain, very strong winds and a marked drop in temperatureFederal and state authorities have issued a series of recommendations to the public. The goal is to reduce risks, both in terms of civil protection and health.
La National Coordination of Civil Protection It advises, first of all, to review and update the Family Civil Protection Planso that all members of the household know what to do and where to go in case of an emergency. It is also essential to prepare a emergency backpack with important documents, a small first aid kit, flashlight, battery-powered radio, and non-perishable food.
In flood-prone areas or cities with drainage problems, the importance of Keep drains, gutters and sewers clear of homes to facilitate water flow. It is also recommended to prune trees that may pose a risk to homes, as well as secure sheets, flowerpots, or other objects that the wind can detach.
Regarding the cold, it is suggested to use layering outerwear (the onion method)including hats, scarves, and gloves, and especially protect children, the elderly, and those with chronic illnesses. Remember not to turn on braziers or charcoal grills in enclosed spacesbecause they can emit carbon monoxide and cause serious poisoning.
Other indications include Protect the pipes to prevent them from freezing, store water In case of temporary power outages, keep pets in warm places and use plenty of blankets at night, when temperatures drop most sharply. If a home does not meet the minimum requirements to cope with extreme cold, it is advisable to seek assistance. temporary shelter provided by the authorities.
Health care and practical advice for dealing with cold and rain
In addition to general civil protection recommendations, specialists emphasize a series of basic measures to take care of your health during episodes of intense cold and unstable weather such as that associated with cold front 41.
Among the most frequently repeated guidelines is that of Eat seasonal fruits and vegetables rich in vitamins A and Cwhich help strengthen the immune system. It is also recommended consume hot liquidssuch as broths or infusions, to maintain an adequate body temperature and avoid mild dehydration resulting from dry air.
In homes, it is recommended to ventilate rooms daily, even if it is cold, for at least a few minutes, to renew the indoor air and reduce the concentration of respiratory virusesIf gas heaters are used, it is important to check their condition and ensure proper ventilation to prevent dangerous gas buildup.
For those who must remain abroad for an extended period, the need to Wear waterproof clothing and appropriate footwear. In areas where heavy rain is expected, wear protective gear to prevent slipping and sudden chills. On the road, reduce speed, maintain a safe following distance, and avoid risky maneuvers if there is rain, fog, or strong gusts of wind.
Finally, the authorities and meteorological services recommend Follow official weather updates through institutional channels and do not spread rumors or unverified information on social media, as this can cause confusion at key moments.
The passage of cold front 41 is shaping up to be one of the most significant winter events of recent weeks, with a cocktail of torrential rains, very strong winds, low temperatures and possible snowfall on volcanic peaksAlthough spring is just around the corner in much of the country, atmospheric behavior reminds us that frontal systems can still arrive with force, so it is essential to pay attention to weather warnings and apply the recommended prevention measures to minimize risks to homes, roads and daily activities.
