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Conagua and the National Metereological Service They are keeping under observation a low pressure zone in the eastern Pacific, off the coast of Michoacán, which if it consolidates would be called LorenaThe most recent warnings point to a 80% probability of development in 48 hours and 90% in the next seven days, which places the system in a high-potential scenario.
The disturbed area advances from west to northwest at an estimated speed between 16 and 24 km/h, linked to tropical wave 29 and showing signs of organization; satellite data have detected winds up to 56 km/hIf it first reaches the category of depression and then that of tropical storm, it will officially take the name Lorena; while, Kiko continues walking away towards the central Pacific without posing a danger to Mexico.
Current situation and expected development
Satelital image
According to the SMN, the system has been located at about 220 km south-southwest of Lázaro Cárdenas (Michoacán), moving parallel to the coast. During this phase, the environment favors the midweek reach the tropical depression threshold, a preliminary step so that, if it gains more strength, it is named as a storm Lorena.
In the short term, the disturbance is expected to continue its march off the coast of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. The forecast models also contemplate that, as the week progresses, the system could gradually turn north and approach the Baja California Peninsula, a scenario that will continue to be subject to adjustment with new data.
Official surveillance insists that the oceanic-atmospheric environment is favorable: there are moisture convergence wide in the eastern Pacific and sufficient energy to sustain convection. However, the intensity and exact timing of the strengthening depend on the internal organization of the core and wind shear in the coming days.
Areas under impact and risks on the Pacific coast
Sea view
The combination of low pressure and tropical wave 29 will favor heavy rainfall and thunderstorms in the west and south of the country. More noticeable effects are expected along the coasts of Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero, with possible extension towards Oaxaca, especially in mountain and coastal areas.
- Heavy rains in coastal and mountainous sections of Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco, with very strong punctuals in Guerrero.
- Frequent electrical activity and possible hail in more organized convective nuclei.
- Waves of 2 to 3 meters and drag currents on beaches in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán and Guerrero.
- Wind gusts on the coast and storm zones that can exceed 50-60 km/h in a localized manner.
In addition to the coastline, bands of humidity can leave puddles and floods urban, rapid flooding of streams and landslides on mountain roads. Minor navigation and open-sea activities should be carried out with extreme caution due to sea conditions.
Probable trajectory and evolution times
In the next 24-48 hours, the system will most likely maintain a almost parallel trajectory to the western coastline, moving out to sea. If its circulation is organized, could transition to a tropical depression midweek and, with further intensification, become a tropical storm Lorena.
Towards the end of the week, some scenarios contemplate a gradual turn to the north which would bring it closer to the Baja California Peninsula. This possible approach will depend on the interaction with wind patterns at medium levels and the sea surface temperature, so frequent updates are required to fine-tune the route.
Official surveillance and recommendations
SMN and Conagua maintain continuous surveillance of the system and will update official notices as its structure changes. The population of the coasts and mountains of Michoacán, Colima, Jalisco, Guerrero and Oaxaca You must follow the instructions of Civil Protection and the harbor masters.
In the presence of heavy rains and high waves, it is suggested avoid water activities When there are restriction flags, do not attempt to cross swollen rivers or fords, secure objects outside the home and have a family emergency plan with a flashlight, radio and documents in safekeeping.
As of the date of this report, Kiko moves away from the Mexican coasts towards the central Pacific, so it does not represent a danger to the national territory; attention remains focused on the potential development of Lorena.
With a high probability of evolution in the short term, position against Michoacán, impacts of rain and waves in the west and a scenario that could bring it closer to Baja California Authorities will maintain active surveillance at the end of the week; coastal residents and tourists are advised consult official reports and be aware of changes in the forecast.