The weather has decided to become more complicated right at the start of meteorological spring. After several days marked by Storm ReginaFar from calm arriving, the models now point to... formation of a DANA which will take over and maintain a scenario of rain, showers and storms in much of Spain.
This chain of events will cause the episode to not be limited to a couple of turbulent days, but to last for several days. with frequent precipitation, snow at relatively low elevations and rough seas on various coastlines. It won't be an extreme storm at all times, but it is one of those situations that, if it persists, can leave very outstanding water figures.
Regina weakens, but the instability strengthens at altitude
On the surface, Regina is now entering a phase of clear weakeningThe pressure field shows a less organized low-pressure system, with less defined fronts and a decrease in the system's intensity. Even so, the storm is still capable of producing significant rainfall. widespread rains, especially in the south and east of the peninsula, as well as in the Balearic Islands.
The key to what comes next lies in the upper levels of the atmosphere. The latest outputs from the main numerical models paint a picture an Atlantic trough which descends towards the Peninsula, injecting colder air into the middle and upper layers of the troposphere. This cold air contrasts with the warmer, more humid air mass already present, and it is precisely there that instability arises.
As the week progresses, that trough will tend to to become isolated to the south or southwest of the Peninsula, giving rise to an isolated depression at high levels (DANA)In practice, a pocket of cold air forms that moves relatively independently of the general circulation, which always complicates forecasting. This process is similar to that described in other episodes of chained DANAs.
The most likely scenarios place The center of the DANA (isolated depression at high levels) lies between the Alboran Sea area, the southeastern Iberian Peninsula, and nearby areas of the western Mediterranean.These nuances matter, because small changes in their position can shift the centers of intense rainfall from one community to another. The possible center of the DANA will largely determine those shifts.
DANA after Regina: focus on the Mediterranean and the eastern Iberian Peninsula
With Regina still leaving its last traces of rain and wind, the arrival of the DANA (isolated high-level depression) will change the impact map. European models and AEMET (Spanish State Meteorological Agency) forecasts agree that the Mediterranean arch It will once again be in the spotlight, with a persistent flow of moisture-laden easterly winds.
In this context, The Valencian Community, the Region of Murcia and Catalonia These areas appear to be the most likely to experience intense and persistent downpours. In coastal and pre-coastal areas of Castellón, southern Tarragona, and parts of Barcelona and Girona, some simulations even suggest accumulated rainfall exceeding 100 l/m² in a few days, and even peaks that could exceed 200-300 l/m² in a very local way.
Not only the coastline will be affected. Eastern Castilla-La Mancha and the interior of the southeast They could also receive significant amounts of rain, with totals generally ranging between 40 and 70 l/m²If the precipitation bands become more stationary, those values could skyrocket in specific regions.
Further inland and to the northwest, the situation will be somewhat different, but not dry. Communities like Madrid, Castile and León, Aragon, Extremadura or parts of Andalusia They will see shower systems and fronts associated with both Regina and the subsequent DANA (isolated high-level depression). There, the rain will tend to be more irregular, alternating between periods of clearer skies and episodes of precipitation that, at times, may be intense.
In parallel, the Cantabrian coast and Galicia They will continue to receive rain due to the arrival of fronts from the Atlantic. In areas of Asturias and the northwest of the Iberian Peninsula, the accumulated rainfall over several days could easily exceed [the figure]. 80-100 l/m²especially if several bands of precipitation occur in succession.
Warnings for rain, snow, wind and rough seas
The unstable weather is not just resulting in moderate showers. The State Meteorological Agency has been activating yellow and orange warnings due to rain, snow, wind and coastal phenomena
On the Mediterranean side, provinces such as Alicante, Castellón and Valencia They are under warnings for heavy rainfall and rough seas. Further north, Girona, Tarragona and Barcelona The warnings combine rain with warnings for strong waves, indicating that the storm will also be felt at sea.
The north and northwest are not left out either: Asturias, Cantabria, La Rioja or areas of Castile and León Warnings are in place for heavy showers, snowfall and coastal storms, especially in the Cantabrian Mountains and the Galician Atlantic coast, where A Coruña, Lugo and Pontevedra They are dealing with very rough seas.
In the south, Andalucía It presents a combination of alerts for rain, wind and waves, with a special impact on Almería, Granada and the StraitIn these territories, easterly winds and rough seas can complicate both navigation and activities in coastal areas.
Snow is also a factor. Initially, solid precipitation will occur above 1.800-2.000 metersBut as the days go by, the level will drop, settling around 1.300-1.500 meters in the northwest and, in some areas, even further south. In the following days, with the cold air more settled, the following is expected copious snowfalls in the Cantabrian Mountains, the Central System and the Betic mountains from altitudes slightly above 1.100-1.400 meters.
Friday with a drop in temperature and unpleasant weather
One of the most noticeable changes for the population will be the temperature. Forecasts indicate that a sharp drop in maximum temperatures on Friday across much of the countryWhile the minimum temperatures will vary less. This combination of cold air aloft, damp ground, and abundant cloud cover will result in a noticeably lower wind chill.
That day, Rain is possible in virtually any part of the Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.Although with an uneven distribution. The heaviest rainfall would be concentrated in areas of the Cantabrian coast, the northeast, the Valencian Community, Catalonia and the Strait of Gibraltar area, where strong and persistent episodes cannot be ruled out.
The snow level will tend to drop, settling around 1.300-1.500 meters Snow is expected in large areas of the northern and northwestern interior, with significant snowfall in the Cantabrian Mountains and other mountain ranges. In the rest of the country, snow will be limited to higher elevations, above [amount missing]. 1.600-1.800 metersalthough there is always room to decline at specific times.
As for the wind, Strong gusts will continue to be a major feature In mountainous areas, on the Meseta Central plateau, and along various coastlines. In parts of Murcia, Alicante, eastern La Mancha, or inland Andalusia, the 70 km/hThis increases the risk of falling branches, poorly secured objects, and incidents on roads.
The sea will remain very rough along many stretches of coast, with waves that could reach significant heights, especially in northern Galicia, the Cantabrian coast and southeastern AndalusiaThis situation requires caution on beaches, in ports, and in areas exposed to waves.
Weekend with the DANA storm in charge and the forecast still uncertain
Looking ahead to Saturday and Sunday, Storm Regina will now take a back seat And the DANA storm will take center stage. However, as is often the case with these types of isolated depressions, The uncertainty about its exact trajectory is high., which directly impacts the accuracy of the prediction.
Current scenarios suggest that Saturday could be the most complicated day.with heavy showers and thunderstorms in the Mediterranean area and southern Andalusia. Intense rainfall is also possible in other parts of eastern Spain and the Balearic Islands, where the atmosphere will remain very active.
In many regions of the east and northeast, as well as in the area around the Strait, it is possible that the storms will be accompanied by hail and very strong gusts of wind, capable of causing occasional traffic problems, falling branches or even small floods in poorly drained areas.
Looking ahead to Sunday, the forecast suggests a slight decrease in the intensity of rainfallAlthough showers could reappear in almost any part of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, they would generally be more scattered and less persistent than on Saturday, except in the northern third of the country, where the unsettled weather could last for several more hours.
The State Meteorological Agency and other specialized services insist that, given the characteristics of the DANA (isolated high-altitude depression) and the convective nature of many of the expected rains, The situation can change rapidlyTherefore, it is advisable to pay attention to updates on warnings and breaking news throughout the weekend.
Storms, hail, mud and haze: a highly variable cocktail
The combination of Regina first and the subsequent DANA will create a mosaic of atmospheric phenomena that goes beyond simple rain. On the one hand, we expect frequent storms in areas of the south, east and central peninsula, with the possibility that some may discharge strongly in short intervals of time.
In regions like Andalusia, Castile-La Mancha, Valencian Community, Murcia or MadridEpisodes with more than 15 l/m² in just one hourThis, if repeated several times, can saturate the soil and urban drainage systems. More specifically, in areas around the Strait of Gibraltar and Ceuta, the following could be recorded: over 40 l/m² in 12 hours, which increases the risk of local incidents.
Another piece of the puzzle will be the presence of haze and suspended dust from the SaharaThis component has already been noticeable in previous days and, although it will tend to subside as the days go by, it can still cause many rain showers to be accompanied by mud, dirtying surfaces and locally reducing visibility.
As for hail, meteorologists do not rule it out Sporadic hailstorms associated with the strongest convective cells, especially in the east and south. These types of episodes are usually short-lived, but when they coincide with heavy traffic or sensitive agricultural areas, they can cause more problems than their brief duration would suggest.
All of this will be accompanied by strong gusts of wind both inland and on the coasts, adding another factor of discomfort and risk to an episode that, rather than being spectacular in a single moment, stands out for its persistence and variety of phenomena.
The Canary Islands and the nearby Atlantic: instability also threatens the archipelago
Although the main focus of the DANA (isolated high-level depression) following Storm Regina is located in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands, The Canary Islands are not entirely unaffected either.The archipelago has already dealt with the effects of Regina, which has left Showers, wind and snow in summit areas during the last few days.
The models suggest that the Atlantic trough associated with the new episode of cold air aloft It could extend its influence towards the archipelago's surroundings, favoring an increase in atmospheric instability. Depending on the final position of the cold pocket, it could Rainfall is expected to resume, especially on the northern slopes and mid-altitude areas. of the islands with the highest relief.
In any case, the situation is not as severe as in the peninsular Mediterranean, but it is dynamic enough to maintain Showers, strong winds and rough seas at certain times, especially in the first half of the period.
Experience with these types of configurations shows that a slight shift of the DANA To the southwest or west, the distribution of rainfall in the Canary Islands can change completely, so meteorologists insist on monitoring the situation day by day.
With a season in which the maximum has already been equaled high-impact storms namedThe possible interaction of this new DANA with the nearby Atlantic reinforces the feeling that the atmosphere remains very active in the region.
The scenario that emerges after Storm Regina is that of a country that This has led to several days of marked instability.With little respite between weather systems, the formation of a DANA (Isolated High-Level Depression) over or near the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands will prolong showers, thunderstorms, snow in the mountains, and rough seas, with particular attention to the Mediterranean coast, the Cantabrian coast, and some southern areas. In this context, rather than focusing on a specific day, it will be important to closely monitor official weather warnings and model updates, because with this type of weather pattern, even a small change in the DANA's position can cause the most affected area to shift from one region to a neighboring one almost overnight.
