Global agriculture faces an unprecedented threat from the growing impact of climate change, which is profoundly altering production cycles, access to resources and the viability of numerous farms. Longer droughts, torrential rains, rising temperatures and increasingly frequent extreme events They paint a challenging picture for millions of farmers in which, no matter how hard they try to adapt, losses in crop yield and quality seem inevitable.
In different regions, The effects on agricultural production are already being felt with force and bring social, economic, and environmental consequences that affect both small producers and large farms. The problem is not just one of quantity: food security, traditional ways of life, and the balance of ecosystems are also at stake.
The reduction of agricultural production, a global reality
Recent studies published by teams from international universities confirm what many farmers suspected: Yields of staple crops such as wheat, corn, rice, soybeans and barley will continue to fall as the average global temperature continues to rise.Even taking into account the adaptive capacity of farmers, it is estimated that Each additional degree of warming could reduce food availability by more than 4%. of the current daily consumption per person.
By 2050, agricultural production is expected to decline by up to 8%. And by the end of the century, the reduction could reach 24% in the worst-case emissions scenarios, especially if more ambitious measures are not adopted to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions. Traditionally exporting countries could become importers due to changes in their land productivity, which would disrupt global trade flows and leave poorer regions in an even more vulnerable situation.
Adaptations are not always sufficient: Changing crop varieties, adjusting planting schedules, or implementing new irrigation techniques helps, but it doesn't neutralize the negative effects of global warming. Some regions, such as the modern breadbaskets of the United States and China and areas of subsistence farming, will suffer especially from declining yields and pressure on food access.
Desertification, drought, and water scarcity: challenges for the countryside
Climate change does not come alone; it is accompanied by a acceleration of the desertification process and increased pressure on water resources. In countries like Spain, nearly three-quarters of the territory is at risk of desertification, With 20% already considered degraded, the increase in irrigated agriculture, the overexploitation of aquifers, and poor water management exacerbate these challenges, as the Ministry of Ecological Transition itself warns.
Dry and semi-arid areas, which cover a third of the planet, are particularly vulnerable. Recurring droughts, accelerated evaporation, and the inability of water storage systems to cope with long periods without rain cause direct losses to crops and livestock, leaving rural communities exposed to food insecurity and impoverishment.
La soil erosion and loss of fertility Due to poor agricultural practices or deforestation, these factors contribute to land degradation. If an aquifer becomes salinized or soil erodes excessively, recovery may be beyond reach for generations.
Social impacts: migration, loss of traditions and new roles
The decline in agricultural productivity and the scarcity of resources have direct effects on people's lives, especially in rural areas. Communities like those in the Dry Corridor of Central America have seen how food insecurity and soil depletion are causing increasing forced migration. Families lose young members who emigrate to cities or abroad, affecting the social fabric and the transmission of ancestral agricultural knowledge.
The burden on women increases, Many women assume sole responsibility for farming, family care, and water management, walking long distances to obtain supplies during times of drought. The elderly are left to manage increasingly unprofitable plots of land with limited opportunities for subsistence.
La social fragmentation and the loss of community leaders It aggravates vulnerability and reduces collective response capacity. In some cases, the pressure even leads to internal displacement and further forced urbanization, with associated problems of access to basic services and the disruption of traditional life.
Innovation and adaptation: Is the current response sufficient?
Given the magnitude of the challenge, many governments and international entities have implemented national plans to combat desertification and drought, soil restoration strategies, reforestation and improving water use efficiency. Water harvesting and storage technologies, crop rotation or the promotion of extensive and sustainable agriculture are some of the responses that are being piloted in different parts of the planet.
The role of the regenerative agriculture, which seeks to restore soil fertility, harness biodiversity, and reduce the use of chemical inputs, fostering greater resilience of rural systems to climate impacts. However, experts warn that These measures, although valuable, are insufficient if they are not accompanied by a genuine transformation of production models, a real reduction in emissions and more decisive investment in rural adaptation.
Keeping international food trade open and fluid is also essential. to avoid serious shortages and price spikes in the markets, something that has not always been achieved, as demonstrated by the restrictions following recent crises.
Finally, the environmental education and community awareness They are key to promoting the sustainable use of resources and strengthening farmers' resilience to new climate scenarios.
The advance of climate change and its impact on agriculture are already palpable in regions across the planet. Production is falling, water pressure is rising, and rural communities are facing unprecedented challenges. While there are promising initiatives and innovative tools to improve response capacity and restore soil fertility, the challenge remains enormous and requires collective involvement at all levels to ensure the future of the countryside and global food supply.
