the conditions of persistent drought and intense heat waves are driving a clear increase in extreme forest fires in multiple regions of the planet, with impacts that affect health, economy and ecosystems, and confirm that Forest fires will be more dangerous and longer lasting.
A new international analysis, developed by scientific teams from the Met Office, the UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, the University of East Anglia and the ECMWF, details that the Climate change is increasing the probability and size of large fires, although the exact weight of their contribution to the observed impacts is still being assessed, according to studies on causes, operations and current situation.
What the new scientific report says
The report has used satellite observations and advanced climate models to identify causes and patterns of fires during the last season (March 2024 to February 2025), analyzing both climatic variables and land use, and complements the progress in early warning models.
In the United States, the January fires in the Los Angeles area were, according to models, twice as likely and with a burned area 25 times larger in the current climate than would have been expected without human-caused warming, a pattern consistent with studies that suggest that Forest fires will increase in the coming years.
In South America, the fires recorded in the region of Pantanal-Chiquitano They reached sizes 35 times larger than usual, while unprecedented episodes were observed in the Amazon and the Congo, with a meteorological context that favored their spread.
The authors emphasize that global warming has increased the probability of fires in Southern California at least two to three times, although they warn that it is still too early to determine to what exact extent climate change explains the final damage from each fire.
Regional impact and key figures
The 2024-2025 season left a balance of 3,7 million square kilometers destroyed by fire, an area larger than India; in addition, 100 million people and property valued at 215.000 million were exposed to fires, reflecting the severity of forest fires.
Emissions from the fires exceeded 8.000 million tons of CO2, about 10% above average since 2003, driven by extraordinary episodes in South America and Canada; the latter country chained a second year with more than 1.000 billion tons emitted, and the data show how smoke from forest fires alters air quality.
Bolivia recorded its record of the century with 700 million tons of CO2 associated with extreme fires, with unusually high totals observed in several states in Brazil and Venezuela, as well as in over 20 states in Guyana, Peru, Suriname and Ecuador. In the Brazilian Pantanal and the Chiquitano dry forests of Bolivia, burned areas were three times the usual and emissions increased sixfold the average.
In Los Angeles, the January fires caused 30 deaths, forced the evacuation of 150.000 people, destroyed at least 11.500 homes and left economic losses estimated at 140.000 million.
Other notable impacts include fatalities in several countries: Nepal (100), South Africa (34), Ivory Coast (23), Portugal (16), Turkey (15) and Canada (2), reflecting the geographical extent of the problem and its high human cost.
Why they burn more: climate, fuel and land use
Warming not only creates weather conditions that are more prone to fire; it also alters the growth rate of vegetation, accumulating fuel which favors rapid spread of fires when dry and hot episodes arrive.
Analysis found an unusually wet 30-month period in California that boosted biomass growth; coinciding with very dry and hot conditions In January, the perfect “clues” for large-scale fires were given.
In the Amazon and the Congo, the anomalous dryness of forests and wetlands allowed the flames to advance with greater speed and range, amplifying ecological damage and carbon emissions.
Territorial management also weighs: reduction of natural cover, certain land use changes and deforestation can intensify fuel continuity and increase the risk of extreme fires in critical seasons, so initiatives to recover forests after fires are key.
What the experts are asking for and how to prepare
Scientific teams urge countries to rapidly reduce emissions greenhouse gases and accelerate adaptation to a warmer, fire-prone world with an eye to COP30, and promote policies to forest fire prevention.
Mitigation and preparedness measures include limiting the deforestation, apply prescribed burns in suitable areas, move buildings away from high-risk areas, reinforce firebreaks, restore wetlands and improve the early warning systems and detection, as well as campaigns to reduce accidental fires.
The scientific community emphasizes that we still have time to act To prevent an escalation of megafires, combining decarbonization with better land management and risk-based urban and rural planning.
This season's data, with unprecedented devastated areas, strong emissions and Danger peaks linked to droughts and extreme heat, consolidate the climate signal and the need for ambitious policies for prevention, adaptation and emissions reduction.
