A new scientific work provides strong evidence of prolonged droughts in the Maya region during the final phase of the Classic Period. Based on a stalagmite from a cave in Yucatán, the team has reconstructed, in great detail, dry episodes that overlap with the sociopolitical decline from various cities, as published in the journal Science Advances.
The research, led by the University of Cambridge with collaborators from Mexico and the United Kingdom, identifies eight droughts in the rainy season between the late 9th and early 11th centuries, including one that lasted thirteen years. The results fit with the archaeological records that document halts in the construction of monuments and shifts in power.
How a high-resolution climate record was obtained
The stalagmite comes from the grottos of Tzabnah, in northern Yucatán, near Chichén Itzá and Uxmal. By dating and analyzing the composition of oxygen isotopes In their calcite layers, researchers were able to separate what happened in the wet and dry seasons of the period studied (approx. 871-1021 AD).
This approach offers a unprecedented seasonal resolution thanks to relatively thick annual layers (of the order of 1 mm), something that lake sediments do not provide, useful for general trends but less precise for site-specific datesThe result is a much more refined climatic calendar for the so-called Terminal Classic.
The analysis of the drip that forms the stalagmite captures the sign of infiltrating rain on the ground, allowing us to distinguish wet and dry periods in detail. In this way, we can reconstruct how long or short the periods were. rainy seasons in critical years.
According to the team, this is the first time this has been achieved. clearly isolate the rainy season For that historical period, this was key information to understand the success or failure of the crops that sustained the population.
Eight droughts and their coincidences with Mayan history
The record identifies eight droughts in the wet season with a minimum duration of three years in the interval 871-1021 AD. The most severe lasted during thirteen consecutive years (around 929-942), an exceptional anomaly that would have strained even advanced water management techniques.
An episode that began around 1900 is also documented. 894 d. C. with four dry years, interrupted by a single wet year and followed by five additional years of drought. These prolonged fluctuations would directly affect masses of corn and other crops, pillars of the economy and political stability.
The chronologies extracted from the cave converge with the epigraphic evidence: in Chichén Itzá, Uxmal and other sites Pauses in inscriptions and political activity are observed during the same dry periods detected in the stalagmite. This does not necessarily imply immediate abandonment, but it does survival priorities that relegate monumental works.
One factor among many: resilience and regional differences
Although the droughts were crucial, the collapse cannot be attributed to a single cause. The study fits with previous hypotheses which point to the confluence of factors: changes in trade routes, internal conflicts and governance, along with the climate variabilityTo better understand these relationships, you can also consult the role of climate change in the region.
The answers varied according to the resilience of each city-stateCenters better connected to exchange networks, such as Chichén Itzá, were able to absorb the impacts for longer and delay abandonment compared to other, more exposed sites.
The refined chronological framework will allow comparing, site by site, the dry periods with local archaeological sequencesThe team suggests expanding sampling in caves in the region to also know the frequency and severity of tropical storms in the past.
The work, led from Cambridge with the participation of the UNAM and UCL, illustrates the potential of integrating high-definition paleoclimatic data with the history written by the Maya themselves, a bridge that provides quantitative context to the social processes of the time.
The combination of an accurate seasonal record, chronological coincidences with the epigraphic pauses and the observation of consecutive droughts shows a scenario in which water stress played a notable role, without being the only driver, in the transformation of the Maya world.
