La tropical cyclone formation It is one of the most significant meteorological phenomena for Mexico, especially during the months comprising the official season, from May to November. In 2025, specialists have warned that it could be a year more active than usual, with an expected increase in both the number and intensity of systems forming in the Pacific Ocean.
This scenario reinforces the importance of understanding why these systems are generated, how they develop and what risks they entail. For coastal areas, meteorologists point to a series of oceanic and atmospheric factors, such as warm sea temperatures, humidity, and high-level winds, which favor the development of storms into cyclones or hurricanes.
Erick: an example of the evolution of cyclones in the Mexican Pacific
One of the most notable systems of the 2025 season has been Erick, which originated as a tropical storm off the coasts of Chiapas and, as it moved over warm waters and under favorable conditions, it reached hurricane status. This phenomenon is the fifth named cyclone of the season in the Pacific, and adds to a succession of systems that have affected the region recently.
According to reports from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the National Hurricane Center, the cyclone has shown a northwestward trajectory, with expected impact on the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero between Wednesday and Thursday. Forecast models indicate the possibility of reaching a significant intensity, even greater than initially expected, depending on the evolution of parameters such as the sea surface temperature, which is around 29 ° C, and vertical shear is currently low.
Authorities maintain alerts and prevention zones active Given the risk of torrential rains, very strong winds, and high waves in large coastal areas. Experts do not rule out that, if favorable conditions persist, Erick could become a major hurricane. category 2 or even higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale before entering the mainland. Waves of more than six meters high and rainfall that doubles the usual monthly rainfall in regions such as Acapulco and nearby areas.
This behavior shows the importance of continuous monitoring and to keep the population informed, especially given the ability of cyclones to intensify rapidly at sea.
Determining factors in the formation of cyclones
La formation and intensification of cyclones in the Pacific depend on a combination of key elements:
- High sea surface temperatures: A warm sea provides the energy needed for systems to evolve rapidly and gain strength.
- Low vertical wind shear: This factor allows the structure of the cyclone to be maintained cohesive and symmetrical, favoring a warm core in the system.
- High humidity in middle layers: a humid atmosphere facilitates deep and sustained convection, an essential characteristic in the development of powerful cyclones.
In addition, recent research on the aerosol intervention suggest that their dispersal could alter the formation and development of cyclones Tropical storms in their initial stages. Although this research is in its early stages and is still in computer simulations, it opens up new avenues for the possible future modulation of these phenomena.
2025 Hurricane Season: Prevention and Recommendations
The Mexican Pacific coast It is one of the regions most vulnerable to the formation and arrival of tropical cyclones, which is why the authorities have reinforced the importance of the prevention and preparation. For this season the formation of up to 20 named systems in the Pacific, while the Atlantic could contribute another 17. The greatest activity is expected in August and september.
Among the main recommendations are: identification of evacuation routes and shelters, preparing an emergency backpack, monitoring official reports and avoid rumors that may generate confusion.
- Identify shelters and exit routes in your area.
- Prepare important documents and a first aid kit.
- Disconnect electrical appliances and turn off gas and water valves when the phenomenon is approaching.
- Follow official instructions and avoid vulnerable areas such as rivers, hillsides, and the coastline when impact warnings are issued.
The monitoring of the evolution of active and low-pressure systems is constant. SMN and the National Hurricane Center regularly update the trajectory, intensity and potential effects of each system that may represent a risk to coastal areas.
Season cyclones 2025 has already introduced systems such as Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, and Dalila, to which Erick is added, reaffirming the need for constant vigilance during these months. The official list of names also includes Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Kiko, and Lorena, among others, and this activity is likely to continue in the coming months.
Tropical cyclones, with their potential for rapid intensification and the associated risks of extreme rainfall, strong winds and dangerous waves, highlight the importance of community preparedness and updating emergency protocolsExperience in recent years shows the need to remain alert and prepared for every active system.
