At this stage, Gabrielle advances across the Atlantic and aims for the Azores before approaching the Peninsula. It will do so transformed, because it will not enter as a hurricane, but as a extratropical system typical of our latitudes.
The models and official notices agree on the general scenario: rainy and windy weekend, and rough seas more pronounced in the west and southwest. Even so, the uncertainty in the exact trajectory requires following updates from AEMET and the NHC.
When and how it will affect us
After organizing in the central Atlantic and reach peaks equivalent to category 4, Gabrielle is moving northeast. Between Thursday night and Friday, she will cross the Azores Islands according to her possible trajectory in the Atlantic, still with very strong winds and a significant maritime storm.
From that point on, the cyclone will begin its extratropical transition. This means that it will lose its hurricane structure and become a storm more typical of our latitudes, gaining influence although with a less compact core.
If the most likely scenario is confirmed, ex-Gabrielle will approach the west of the peninsula on Sunday, with bands of cloudiness and precipitation that could extend to a large part of the territory.
The State Meteorological Agency insists that there is room for variation, but anticipates that rain may appear in many areas, with greater emphasis on the southwest quadrant and the Atlantic coast.
Areas and phenomena expected in Spain
The reference scenarios indicate that Extremadura and western Andalusia may be among the areas most affected by the rain, without ruling out locally intense accumulated in points of the southwest.
In Galicia it is likely that the first showers arrive on Saturday with the approach of the system, while on Sunday the worsening would extend to the western peninsula and central areas.
The wind will also be in the news: it is expected strong gusts in exposed areas from the west and northwest, with a more turbulent environment on the coasts and mountain ranges.
At sea, the situation could become more complicated in the Atlantic: waves of 5 to 6 meters in sections of Galicia and the Gulf of Cadiz, especially around the passage of the storm.
Overall, the maxims will tend to be more contained under cloudiness and rain, with occasional drops where showers are persistent and a milder environment where clearings occur.
Why it won't be a hurricane on the Peninsula
As it approaches colder waters and interacts with other air masses, loses its tropical character and reorganizes its energy like a storm. It doesn't arrive with a defined eye or an eye wall, but it is a system capable of generating temporary.
This process, known as extratropicalization, is relatively common in autumn in the North Atlantic. Although the phenomenon varies in nature, This does not mean that it is not potentially adverse. in wind, rain and waves.
During its peak in open sea it recorded very high values for an Atlantic cyclone, with sustained winds of around 120 kt (more than 200 km/h) and a minimum central pressure around 949 hPa. None of this will be reproduced in Spain, but it explains its capacity to organize storms on a large scale.
Probable trajectory and uncertainty
With today's maps, the most likely option places the center of the low approaching the west of the Peninsula, with the possibility of the nucleus passing close to Portugal between Lisbon and Cape St. Vincent before weakening.
There are less likely alternatives that move the center towards the northwest of the peninsula or further north in the Atlantic, so that the final position may vary and, with it, the distribution of rain and gusts.
About Canary Islands, the official forecasts consulted do not currently contemplate a direct impact of Gabrielle during the weekend, without prejudice to changes in scenarios later if the atmosphere evolves differently.
The National Hurricane Center has issued watches in the Azores due to the proximity of the system, while AEMET reminds that these episodes require continuous monitoring due to its complexity.
Basic advice for stormy weather
On the coast and exposed areas it is recommended exercise extreme caution: avoid standing on breakwaters or rocks with waves, secure loose items on balconies and pay attention to the official notices.
If you are going to drive, plan ahead for possible reduced visibility in showers and increasing the safety distance during gusts of wind. In the countryside or mountains, check the forecast and consider postponing departures if adverse phenomena are expected.
Right now, the consensus suggests a notable but typical storm of a powerful autumn storm: more abundant rain in the west and southwest, strong gusts in exposed areas and rough seas in the AtlanticThe key will be the final trajectory of the center of the low, which could still adjust the impact map.
