After a few days marked by the turn to autumnal weather on the peninsula, attention is now focused on the Hurricane Gabrielle, which is advancing through the Atlantic and, according to the most probable scenarios and its possible trajectory in the Atlantic, It will reach Spain as an extratropical storm at the end of the week.
The cyclone intensified over very warm waters until reaching 4 category, with winds estimated at around 120 kt (≈222 km/h) and minimum pressure of 949 hPa, but its strength will decrease as it sails towards higher latitudes and approaches the Azores.
Gabrielle's expected evolution in the Atlantic
In the next few hours it could still hold high intensity peaksBut wind shear, contact with colder waters and interaction with the polar jet will force its progressive weakening.
Models suggest a drop in category 4 to 3 and then to 2 between Wednesday and Thursday, accelerating course northeast/eastOn Friday, the center of traffic could cross or graze the Azores, now a weaker hurricane.
As it approaches the archipelago, the system will begin the extratropical transition: will lose the warm core and will gain frontal structure typical of Atlantic depressions, widening the wind field but with less extreme maximum gusts than those of its tropical phase.
How and when could it affect Spain?
The time frame with the most ballots is between sunday and the Monday, when the system, as it is extratropical storm (formerly Gabrielle) approaching the western peninsula. No impact is expected as hurricane on our coasts
If confirmed, the effects would be the usual ones of an Atlantic storm: Rain at intervals, gusts of wind in exposed areas and swell significant in the Atlantic and the Cantabrian Sea, with a drop in maximum temperatures due to increased cloudiness.
Although the scenario is increasingly defined, the uncertainty over the exact route persists. Small changes in route west of Iberia can shift the largest strip of waves and wind.
Trajectory scenarios and most exposed areas
Most likely scenario: the decline moves to north-northeast of the northwest of the peninsula, affecting mainly Galicia and the River with waves, wind and intermittent rainfall; the impact would be more content inland.
Alternative scenario (less likely, but not ruled out): a slightly more extreme turn this would locate the center of low pressure closer to Galicia/Portugal and even, in low probability cases, towards the Gulf of CadizThis layout would increase the maritime storm and the streaks.
For Mediterranean coast, the direct influence of ex-Gabrielle would be less; they could arrive residual fronts with cloudiness and showers, but the bulk of the episode would remain in the Atlantic facade and the north.
Indicative timeline (subject to change)
- Friday (afternoon/evening): the first arrive deep sea trains to the Atlantic coast; increasing cloudiness in Galicia.
- Saturday: the low is reorganized to west/northwest of the peninsula; cracks in capes and mountain ranges, with rain bands in the northwest.
- Sunday: maximum proximity of ex-Gabrielle to the Galicia/Cantabrian environment; notable waves, showers and more atmosphere fresh.
- Monday: tendency to weaken towards the Bay of Biscay/France; residual showers in the north and the waves remit.
What to watch out for and recommendations
Factors to monitor: the speed of the extratropical transition (conditions the size of the wind field), the passing through the Azores (heading adjustments) and coupling with the chorro (deepening of the decline).
- On the Atlantic coast: avoid breakwaters and surf zones in high tides; heed flags and warnings.
- Navigation and fishing: consult the coastal bulletins and reconsider departures with swells of the W/NW.
- Travels: forecast delays due to wind/rain in the northwest; add margin to travel.
- Living place: ensure awnings and furniture, check drains and downspouts before the first bands of rain.
With the current data, everything indicates that Spain will not receive Gabrielle as a hurricanebut as extratropical storm capable of leaving waves, wind and precipitation especially in the northwest; the final degree of impact will depend on the westward direction of the peninsula, so it is advisable follow official updates in the next 48–72 hours.
