Hurricane Kirk has caught the attention of meteorologists as it continues to move through the tropical Atlantic Ocean. This phenomenon, which has already reached Category 1 strength, has the potential to intensify and become a Category 3 hurricane in the coming days, according to the most recent forecasts. The National Hurricane Center (NHC) He stressed that current atmospheric conditions are favorable for strengthening, with sea surface temperatures ranging between 28ºC and 30ºC, and low levels of shear that will allow Kirk to continue gaining strength.
Located about 1.720-1790 km west of Cape Verde, Kirk is moving at a speed of approximately 22 km/h, heading northwest. Starting next Thursday, it is expected to turn northeast, heading towards uninhabited areas of the Atlantic, although its trajectory still generates uncertainty and requires constant monitoring to determine how it will evolve in the coming days.
Hurricane Kirk could strengthen to Category 3
At present, Kirk has sustained winds of up to 130 km/h, with a minimum pressure of 984 hPa at its centre. Meteorologists predict that the hurricane will reach Category 3 by mid-week, which would qualify it as a major hurricane. This will be the seventh hurricane of the 2024 season so far, although the formation of a seventh hurricane usually occurs later, around November. But the current season is being especially active in the Atlantic.
Experts say factors such as warm ocean temperatures and high atmospheric humidity are key to this strengthening. However, once Kirk moves further north, it is expected to encounter colder waters, which could contribute to its progressive weakening.
Could Hurricane Kirk hit Europe?
The big question now is whether Hurricane Kirk has a chance of reaching Europe. Although it is highly unlikely that it will do so as a hurricane, long-term forecasts suggest that it could end its journey as a storm, affecting parts of the British Isles and even the north of the Iberian Peninsula.
According to the latest weather models, Kirk could turn northeast at the end of this week, following a 'corridor' of low pressure that would take it towards the North Atlantic. At this point, with the interaction of atmospheric conditions, its transition into an extratropical cyclone, known as an ex-Kirk storm, would be almost inevitable. The effects of this storm would be felt, with high probability, in the British Isles and could extend to the northwest of Spain.
It should be noted that in this type of situation, the long-range weather forecasts carry significant uncertainty. Any small change in atmospheric conditions could substantially alter Kirk's course.
Possible impact in Spain and Europe
According to current reports, the anticyclone located west of the Canary Islands and another over Greenland could influence the hurricane's path, preventing it from directly impacting Spain. However, it is expected that a "low pressure corridor” allow that ex-Kirk may deviate towards the British Isles and some areas of the northern peninsula, although not as an active hurricane.
This scenario, although speculative given the temporal distance, suggests that Kirk's effects on Europe would be limited mainly to strong winds and rain associated with the storm that would develop after the extratropical transition. By the end of next week, this storm would be very active and would cover a wide radius of action in the Atlantic, making it a weather system to watch closely.
As for the Iberian Peninsula, the Models are mainly targeting northern Spain and, more generally, the western strip, as the areas most susceptible to the collateral effects of this meteorological system. Although the intensity of these effects is yet to be determined, it is possible that an increase in rainfall and strong gusts of wind will be experienced in these regions.
Finally, we must consider the impact of climate change in the evolution of meteorological phenomena of this type. Although hurricanes in Europe are rare, global warming could enhance the appearance of subtropical storms and extratropical cyclones increasingly intense on our continent.
Hurricane Kirk continues its course in the Atlantic, increasing in category as it passes through a favorable environment that accelerates its strengthening. Although its direct impact on land seems limited for the moment, its possible evolution into a storm and the effects it could have on Europe should not be underestimated.