La Hurricane season The hurricane that spans the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans once again becomes the focus of attention each year for meteorological services, civil protection authorities, and coastal populations. Although much of the activity is concentrated around the Caribbean, the Gulf of Mexico, and the Pacific coast of the Americas, the evolution of these systems is also closely monitored from other regions. Europe and Spainsince they influence global weather, maritime traffic, and sometimes the remnants of their storms end up arriving in the European environment in a very weakened state.
Looking ahead to the next season, international meteorological organizations have already set the official start and end dates, have outlined a first forecast They have announced how many cyclones could form and published the list of names that will be used. All of this comes in a context marked by the phenomenon of El Niñowhich will alter the distribution of activity between basins and requires heightened vigilance, especially in the northeastern Pacific.
When does the 2026 hurricane season begin in each ocean?
The responsible bodies, such as the National Metereological Service of Mexico (SMN), the National Water Commission and the World Meteorological Organization (WMO), agree on the same basic calendar for the Atlantic and Northeast Pacific basins. The season does not start on the same day in both oceans, but it does share the same closing date.
At the northeastern Pacific OceanIn the region where many of the cyclones that end up affecting the western coast of Mexico and Central America originate, the official monitoring period begins on May 15thFrom that date onwards, the prediction centers increased the frequency of their bulletins and the monitoring of any tropical disturbance that can be organized.
At the North AtlanticIn the Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico, the season starts a little later: 1 JuneHurricanes form in this basin and, if they follow a west-northwest trajectory, can reach densely populated areas such as the Yucatan Peninsula. Florida and the Caribbean, with potential impact also on the Maritime trade and the Atlantic routes towards Europe.
In both basins, the completion date is the same: the November 30thThat doesn't prevent, very occasionally, A cyclone may appear outside of these datesbut the bulk of the activity is concentrated in that interval. September is usually the busiest month of the year, especially in the Atlantic, with a peak in storm and hurricane formation.
Throughout this period, the meteorological services maintain a permanent surveillance The system uses satellite imagery, sea surface temperature, and wind patterns at mid and upper levels of the atmosphere. The goal is to detect any potentially organizing weather systems early and assess whether they pose a risk to densely populated coastal areas.
What to expect from the upcoming season and how does El Niño influence it
Initial analyses indicate that activity in the Ocean could be located slightly below averageEven so, experts insist that the real risk depends not only on the total number of systems, but above all on their specific trajectory and the point at which they make landfall. A single hurricane hitting a large city or a vulnerable area can cause far greater damage than a season with more cyclones but without direct landfall.
Preliminary ranges point to the formation of between 9 and 13 tropical storms with names in the Atlantic basin. Of these, it is estimated that between 4 and 6 could reach hurricane statusand within that group, even 3 sets They could become hurricanes of great intensity (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). A single hurricane that makes landfall can determine the perception of the entire season.
At the Northeast PacificThe models suggest a different scenario, partly due to the anticipated influence of the phenomenon of El NiñoThis ocean-atmosphere pattern tends to increase the number of cyclones in the Pacific and reduce them in the Atlantic and the Caribbean. Consequently, a busiest season off the Pacific coast American, with special surveillance of the Mexican coast, where several high-category hurricane impacts have been recorded in recent years.
Representatives of the National Meteorological Service have indicated that the general climatic conditions They are quite similar to those of the previous year, when Mexico suffered "few direct impacts" but did numerous systems that passed very close to the coastcausing intense rainfall, high waves, and localized damage. This situation could repeat itself, with cyclones that don't make direct landfall but still leave significant impacts. very significant storms.
It is worth remembering that long-term forecasts are necessarily provisional These forecasts may be adjusted as the start of the season approaches and more precise data becomes available on ocean temperature, upper-level winds, and the evolution of El Niño. Therefore, experts recommend following the latest bulletins from official meteorological services.
El Niño, global warming and broader effects
The phenomenon of El Niño It consists of a large-scale heating of the surface waters of the equatorial Pacific Central and eastern, accompanied by changes in tropical atmospheric circulation. The WMO explains that this pattern alters the distribution of winds, atmospheric pressure, and precipitation, generating a cascading impact on rainfall patterns in numerous countries, from the Americas to parts of Africa and, indirectly, also in Europe.
In the context of tropical cyclones, El Niño usually translates into more activity in the Pacific y except in the AtlanticThis is because it modifies wind shear (the variation of wind with height) and atmospheric stability. Intense wind shear often weakens incipient tropical storms, while a more uniform and humid environment favors their organization and strengthening.
At the same time, scientific reports on climate change They warn of particularly rapid warming in regions like Mexico and other parts of mid-latitudes, which are already experiencing milder winters and rising minimum temperatures. This differential warming not only influences the likelihood of heat wavesbut also in the way rainfall is distributed and in the intensity of some extreme precipitation events.
For Europe and Spain, these changes do not translate into fully developed hurricanes directly impacting the coasts, but they can favor the arrival of remnants of tropical cyclones These storms, when they transform into mid-latitude low-pressure systems, bring very humid air and can lead to unusual periods of rain and wind. These are sometimes known as "ex-hurricanes" that cross the Atlantic already transformed into extratropical storms.
In this context, scientific bodies emphasize the importance of improving monitoring and early warning systems, as well as strengthening critical infrastructure in the face of extreme weather events, both in America as in Europewhere changes in the frequency and intensity of some DANAs and episodes of torrential rain are also observed.
Number of cyclones predicted and names that will be used
One of the references that arouses the most curiosity each year is the List of names assigned to tropical cyclones. The WMO maintains official lists that are used on a rotating basis, so that, unless a hurricane is extraordinarily destructive (in which case its name is retired), they are reused every so often.
At the North AtlanticThe names expected for next season are: Arthur, Bertha, Cristóbal, Dolly, Edouard, Fay, Gonzalo, Hanna, Isaias, Josephine, Kyle, Leah, Marco, Nana, Omar, Paulette, Rene, Sally, Teddy, Vicky and WilfredThese will be assigned in alphabetical order as tropical storms form and reach sufficient intensity.
At the Northeast PacificThe list includes: Amanda, Boris, Cristina, Douglas, Elida, Fausto, Genevieve, Hernán, Iselle, Julio, Karina, Lowell, Marie, Norbert, Odalys, Polo, Rachel, Simon, Trudy, Vance, Winnie, Xavier, Yolanda, and ZekeAs in the Atlantic, names are applied when the disturbance reaches the range of tropical storm.
It is worth remembering that a system is named when its Sustained winds exceed 63 km/hat which point it is considered a tropical storm. If the maximum sustained wind reaches 119 km/h or higher, the system is reclassified as a hurricane. From there, it can continue to intensify until it reaches higher categories.
Although the available list of names gives an idea of the maximum number of cyclones that could be named, meteorological agency forecasts are more conservative. In the Atlantic, ranges of 9 to 13 storms and 4 to 6 hurricanes, with up to 3 major hurricanes, are considered consistent with a typical season. slightly below average but with significant risk if any of those systems are directed towards populated areas.
Duration, monitoring and role of meteorological services
From May 15 in the Pacific and June 1 in the Atlantic until November 30, the attention of prediction centers is focused on the early detection of tropical wavesDepressions, storms, and hurricanes. Numerical models, ocean buoys, weather satellites, and, in some cases, reconnaissance aircraft are the main tools for estimating the intensity and trajectory of each system.
In the case of Mexico and the Caribbean, this ongoing monitoring is coordinated with the relevant agencies. Civil Protectionwho in turn interact with local and national authorities. In Europe, monitoring the Atlantic season is also key for national meteorological services (such as AEMET in Spain), which analyze how the remnants of some cyclones may later interact with the jet stream and affect the weather in the Iberian Peninsula, the Cantabrian Sea, or the Northeast Atlantic.
Experience from recent years has shown that even in seasons categorized as "moderate" or "below average," episodes of very severe impactThe relevant factor is not just how many cyclones form, but where and how They have an impact. A hurricane that grazes the coast can leave rainfall accumulations, storm surges, and landslides comparable to those of a direct hit, especially in mountainous areas or areas with poorly prepared infrastructure.
For European countries, including Spain and Portugal, this information is not unfamiliar: the major autumn and winter storms in the North Atlantic, some fueled by remnants of tropical cyclones, can affect maritime traffic, the safety of fisheries, and the behavior of waves that reach the Atlantic and Cantabrian coasts.
Therefore, both in America and in Europe, there is an emphasis on the need for the population to resort to official sources —national weather services, hurricane centers, emergency agencies— and not rumors or unverified messages on social media or instant messaging, which can generate unjustified alarms or, on the contrary, a dangerous false sense of security.
New extreme rainfall alert sent to mobile
One of the major new developments related to the upcoming season is the testing of a warning system for extraordinary rainfall It will be delivered directly to mobile phones, using the same technological platform already used to send seismic alerts in Mexico. This tool, currently in its pilot phase, could become a model for other countries if its results are positive.
The approach is simple: when models and meteorologists detect a high probability of an episode of extreme rainfall If an event capable of causing severe flooding, river overflows, or landslides were to occur, a specific message would be sent to mobile phones located in the potentially affected area. This is not an alert for every shower, but only in cases of... high risk.
According to officials from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and Civil Protection, the transmission would be carried out using the infrastructure already tested for seismic alerts, but with a different type of content and, above all, with more advanceInstead of seconds, the aim is to give warnings days in advance of the storm's arrival, so that the population can organize themselves and take basic self-protection measures.
The message would be sent only to those in areas forecasted for extreme rainfall, without requiring the installation of additional apps or registration. This targeted approach makes the alert more useful and credible, as it only reaches those who are truly at risk.
Authorities emphasize that this year will be one of tests and adjustmentsTherefore, errors or last-minute changes in the forecast are possible. Even so, it is considered an important step towards multi-hazard warning systems that, in the future, could also integrate warnings for hurricanes, tsunamis, or other severe weather events—something of particular interest to coastal countries in both the Americas and the European Atlantic coast.
With the dates already set —May 15 in the Pacific y June 1st in the Atlantic—until November 30—, a forecast that suggests some moderation in the Atlantic But with more activity in the Pacific under the influence of El Niño, and a full list of names prepared for the cyclones that form, the next hurricane season comes with new warning tools and a clear recommendation: closely follow official warnings, both in the countries directly exposed and in European regions where the remnants of these systems can translate into storms of rain and wind that, if they catch the territory unprepared, can also generate significant problems.
