Although the idea of anticipating the occurrence of an earthquake has fascinated and concerned humanity for centuries, current science establishes that there is currently no reliable method for predicting the exact location, date, and magnitude of the next major earthquakes.However, advances in understanding tectonic plate dynamics and ongoing monitoring are making it possible to identify areas at greatest risk and improve early warning systems.
In countries with high seismic activity such as Peru and Mexico, the accumulation of decades, or even centuries, without a major earthquake has increased concern about when a major event could occur. Scientific institutions have focused their efforts on analyzing stored energy and the so-called "seismic silences"which, far from being reassuring, reveal an underground pressure ready to be released at some point.
What do scientists tell us about earthquake prediction?
According to Hernando Tavera, president of the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), The magnitude of earthquakes follows a logarithmic scaleEach additional point represents approximately thirty times more energy released. Thus, a magnitude 8 event releases about 900 times more energy than a magnitude 6 event, and a magnitude 9 event can release more than 27,000 times more energy.
The case of Lima is especially representative: Since the last major earthquake that struck the city in 1746, 279 years of seismic pressure have accumulated.The recent medium-magnitude tremors, while a reminder of how vulnerable the Peruvian capital can be, have not released enough energy to reduce the risk of a major earthquake, which has been expected for generations. This phenomenon, known as "seismic silence," indicates that energy will continue to accumulate until it is finally released in a major earthquake.
Why do some earthquakes not seem to alleviate the accumulated risk?
Experts insist on a key concept: There is no direct relationship between the occurrence of small or medium-sized earthquakes and the complete discharge of the energy accumulated in the Earth's crust.Moderate tremors, such as the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that struck Lima in June 2025, are not enough to break the seismic silence or prevent a possible earthquake greater than magnitude 8 in the future.
El coupling of tectonic plates In areas such as the central coast of Peru or the so-called Guerrero Gap in Mexico, it creates a process of progressive deformation that, sooner or later, is unleashed in the form of intense earthquakes. This cycle has already been documented in recent history with devastating earthquakes in both regions. Therefore, scientific monitoring is aimed at analyzing where this "deformation" is accumulating and which districts or urban areas are most vulnerable.
What is happening in the most exposed urban areas?
The risk of collapse in the event of an earthquake depends not only on the energy stored underground, but also on the quality and location of the buildings.In cities like Lima, neighborhoods with informal construction, inadequate materials, and unstable soils, such as San Juan de Lurigancho, Villa María de Triunfo, and Comas, pose a high risk.
According to experts from the Japanese-Peruvian Center for Earthquake Research and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID), the impact of an earthquake can vary significantly depending on the characteristics of the terrain and buildings. In some districts, the vibrations are twice as strong as in other areas due to the composition of the soil. The lack of control over the growth of informal buildings and the use of unsafe materials increase the risk of a strong earthquake causing serious human and material damage.
Therefore, the importance of professional supervision in construction, adequate housing reinforcement and public awareness, especially in regions with high seismic activity and prolonged seismic silence.
Are there systems to anticipate earthquakes?
Day by day, No country has a system capable of predicting exactly when a major earthquake will occur.. However, mechanisms are being implemented to seismic alert Although they don't predict the event, they can provide several seconds' notice to the urban population. This time, although brief, can be enough to take cover and minimize the risk of injury.
In Peru, the Seismic Alert System is in its trial phase and will soon be able to issue warnings through loudspeakers installed in urban neighborhoods. The difference in speed between seismic waves and communication signals allows for those critical seconds to be gained. Specialists insist that these systems they do not predict an earthquake, but rather alert after the initial detection of a significant earthquake.
Mexico has also developed various warning systems, particularly after the experiences of the 1985 and 2017 earthquakes. Although these systems cannot prevent damage to vulnerable infrastructure, they have proven useful in reducing the number of casualties.
Recommendations for preparing for a possible earthquake
The best way to face the seismic threat is through individual and collective preparationBelow are a series of basic recommendations that can make a difference:
- Practice evacuation drills and have identified the safety zones at home, work or school.
- Make sure your home meets building standards and, if possible, strengthen it by consulting a professional.
- Prepare an emergency backpack with water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a radio, a first aid kit, and cash.
- Stay calm during an earthquake, stay away from falling objects, and take cover under solid structures.
- Always stay informed through official channels and avoid spreading rumors.
Experts agree that, although it is not possible to predict the exact timing of an earthquake, risk reduction involves recognizing vulnerability, improving construction, promoting prevention, and taking advantage of available warning systems.Awareness and preparation remain the best defense against the unpredictable nature of earthquakes.
