Although the idea of ​​anticipating earthquakes has fascinated and worried humanity for centuries, current science states that there is no reliable method for predicting the exact location, date, and magnitude of the next major earthquakes . However, advances in understanding tectonic plate dynamics and constant monitoring allow us to identify areas at higher risk and improve early warning systems.
In highly seismic countries like Peru and Mexico, the accumulation of decades, or even centuries, without a major earthquake has increased anxiety about when a significant event might occur. Scientific institutions have focused their efforts on analyzing stored energy and so-called " seismic gaps ," which, far from being reassuring, reveal underground pressure ready to be released at any moment.
What do scientists tell us about earthquake prediction?
According to Hernando Tavera, president of the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), the magnitude of earthquakes follows a logarithmic scale : each additional point represents approximately thirty times more energy released. Thus, an event of magnitude 8 releases about 900 times more energy than one of magnitude 6, and one of magnitude 9 can exceed 27,000 times.
The case of Lima is particularly representative: after the last major earthquake that struck the city in 1746, 279 years of seismic pressure have accumulated . The recent tremors of moderate magnitude, while serving as a reminder of the Peruvian capital's vulnerability, have not released enough energy to reduce the risk of a major earthquake that has been anticipated for generations. This phenomenon, known as "seismic silence," indicates that energy will continue to accumulate until it is finally released in a large-magnitude earthquake.
Why do some earthquakes not seem to alleviate the accumulated risk?
Experts emphasize a key concept: there is no direct relationship between the occurrence of small or medium-sized earthquakes and the complete release of energy accumulated in the Earth's crust . Moderate tremors, like the 6.1 magnitude earthquake that struck Lima in June 2025, are not enough to break the seismic silence or prevent a possible earthquake greater than magnitude 8 in the future.
The coupling of tectonic plates in areas like the central coast of Peru or the so-called Guerrero Gap in Mexico creates a process of progressive deformation that, sooner or later, is released in the form of intense earthquakes. This cycle has already been documented in recent history with devastating earthquakes in both regions. Therefore, scientific monitoring is focused on analyzing where this deformation is accumulating and which districts or urban areas are most vulnerable.
What is happening in the most exposed urban areas?
The risk of collapse during an earthquake depends not only on the energy accumulated underground, but also on the quality and location of buildings . In cities like Lima, neighborhoods with informal construction, inadequate materials, and unstable soil, such as San Juan de Lurigancho, Villa MarÃa del Triunfo, and Comas, present a high risk.
According to experts from the Peruvian-Japanese Center for Seismic Research and Disaster Mitigation (CISMID), the impact of an earthquake can vary considerably depending on the characteristics of the terrain and buildings. In some districts, the vibration is twice as strong as in other areas due to the soil composition. The lack of control over the growth of informal construction and the use of unsafe materials increase the risk that a strong earthquake will cause serious human and material damage.
Therefore, the importance of professional supervision in construction , adequate reinforcement of housing, and public awareness is emphasized, especially in regions with high seismicity and prolonged seismic silence.
Are there systems to anticipate earthquakes?
Currently, no country has a system capable of predicting exactly when a major earthquake will occur . However, seismic alert systems are being implemented that, while they don't predict the event, can warn urban populations several seconds in advance. This time, although brief, can be enough to take shelter and minimize the risk of injury.
In Peru, the Seismic Alert System is currently in its trial phase and will soon be able to issue warnings via loudspeakers installed in urban neighborhoods. The difference in speed between seismic waves and communication signals allows for those critical seconds to be gained. Experts emphasize that these systems do not predict earthquakes , but rather issue alerts after the initial detection of significant seismic activity.
Mexico has also developed various warning systems, particularly after the experiences of the 1985 and 2017 earthquakes. Although these systems cannot prevent damage to vulnerable infrastructure, they have proven useful in reducing the number of casualties.
Recommendations for preparing for a possible earthquake
The best way to face the threat of earthquakes is through individual and collective preparedness . Below are some basic recommendations that can make all the difference:
- Practice evacuation drills and have identified the safety zones at home, work or school.
- Make sure your home meets building standards and, if possible, strengthen it by consulting a professional.
- Prepare an emergency backpack with water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a radio, a first aid kit, and cash.
- Stay calm during an earthquake, stay away from falling objects, and take cover under solid structures.
- Always stay informed through official channels and avoid spreading rumors.
Experts agree that, while it's impossible to predict the exact moment of an earthquake, reducing risk involves recognizing vulnerability, improving construction, promoting prevention, and utilizing available early warning systems . Awareness and preparedness remain the best defense against the unpredictable nature of earthquakes.
