Tropical Storm Jerry continues its course through the Atlantic and, according to the National Hurricane Center, has favorable conditions for gradual intensification in the coming hours; everything indicates that could become a hurricane on Friday if the trend continues.
In the early morning report, the NHC estimated maximum sustained winds close to 100 km/h, with upper gusts, and moving west-northwest at about 30-35 km/h. The center of the system was located several hundred kilometers east-southeast of the Northern Leeward Islands, advancing through the waters of the central Atlantic.
Trajectory and key times
The track forecast indicates this motion will continue today, Thursday, before Jerry describes a turn northwest on Friday and head north over the weekend at a somewhat slower pace.
With that scenario, the center of the storm would pass near or northeast of the northern group of the Leeward Islands between Thursday evening and Friday morning, keeping their distance from the US mainland for now.
Forward speed is expected to decrease as the change of direction begins, a common behavior when cyclones interact with winds at altitude and variations in the region's circulation pattern.
Forecast intensity and NHC data
An NOAA reconnaissance mission recently flew over the system and provided size and intensity data that have led to adjustments to the official forecast.
With the available information, the NHC forecasts a gradual strengthening until category 1 hurricane starting Friday, according to the tracking Jerry's trajectory and intensity, a somewhat more contained scenario compared to previous projections that suggested greater intensity in the short term.
The rate of intensification will be conditioned by wind shear and the organization of the convective core; however, the ocean presents suitable temperatures and a reasonably favorable environment for Jerry to gain strength over the next few days.
Rain, waves and recommendations
In the next 24-48 hours, the northern Leeward Islands and the Virgin Islands (British and U.S.) They can record accumulations of 50-100 mm, with specific maximums around 150 mm in relief areas, increasing the risk of Flash floods and landslides.
Swells associated with Jerry will reach the Windward and Leeward sides and propagate towards the greater Antilles between Friday and the weekend; on the coastal strip, rain is expected dangerous rip currents and high waves that can affect navigation and beaches.
Surveillance is maintained tropical storm for several islands in the arc, including Antigua and Barbuda, Anguilla, St. Kitts and Nevis, Montserrat, St. Barthélemy, St. Maarten/Sint Maarten, Saba, St. Eustatius, and Guadeloupe. Authorities ask to follow the official bulletins and review local emergency plans.
For now, most models are pointing the system toward open water after its closest approach to the northeast Caribbean, with no clear signs of a direct impact on the U.S. East Coast; however, the uncertainty typical of these early stages, it is advisable to stay tuned for future updates.
With the information available, the most plausible scenario is that Jerry reach hurricane strength around Friday As it approaches the northern Leeward Islands, bringing heavy rain and significant swells, continued monitoring by the NHC and local services will be key to adjusting preparations if necessary.