After a long period marked by low rainfallRecent weeks have brought encouraging news for the areas most affected by drought. Spain stands out in particular, where the weather forecast shows a change in trend after the fifth wettest spring since 1961, allowing the country to leave behind two years of prolonged meteorological drought. Despite this improvement, some uncertainties remain regarding the climate's behavior for the coming months, with projections suggesting Hotter than normal summers and rainfall that could be typical or even below average.
At the national level, the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) recently reported that The rains recorded during March, April and May of this year have been key to reversing the situation.These three months, considered meteorological spring, have brought 151% more rainfall than usual to the Iberian Peninsula, bringing the national average to levels not seen for decades. The Balearic and Canary Islands have also experienced a notably wet spring. This trend has allowed Spain to officially emerge from the long-term drought that began in 2023 at the end of May, although experts insist on maintaining caution and rational water management, given that water resources remain limited.
Summer predictions: heat and possible heat waves
Looking ahead to summer, seasonal models do not offer a clear trend regarding rainfall, so It is not ruled out that the situation could become complicated again. if drought returns in some areas. What does seem almost guaranteed is that high temperatures will dominate the weather Throughout Spain, there is a high probability that summer temperatures will exceed the historical average. According to the AEMET (Spanish Meteorological Agency), there is more than a 70% chance that July, August, and September will be hotter than normal, especially in regions such as Galicia, the Mediterranean, the Balearic Islands, and the Canary Islands. Although summer rainfall is generally scarce in Spain, it is concentrated in occasional storm episodes, generally associated with low-lying currents that cross the peninsula, which can cause intense and sudden events.
This spring's rainfall pattern has been unusual., with heavy rains during March, followed by a wet April and an as-expected May. Low pressure systems from the southwest have helped reservoirs and major river flows recover, especially in the central and southern parts of the Iberian Peninsula. However, northern Galicia and the Cantabrian provinces have been slightly spared from this bonanza, with rainfall slightly below average.
Drought situation and forecasts in other regions
Not only Spain has experienced improvements in the droughtIn the Mexican state of Durango, for example, the first rains of the year have significantly reduced the affected area. According to data from the National Water Commission (Conagua), just two weeks ago, 95% of the state's territory was affected by some degree of drought. After the recent rainfall, this figure has dropped to 71%. Estimates for June place precipitation at around 95% of the historical average, and for July and August, levels within the normal range are expected, which could benefit not only agriculture but also the recovery of dam levels and the livestock sector.
Despite the improvement, Concern persists in sectors such as livestock, where many farms have seen their watering holes remain dry until very recently. Events such as Tropical Storm Alvin have brought above-average rainfall, helping to alleviate the situation in several regions in the north and center of the country.
The impact of climate change on drought prediction
Climate change continues to dominate the agenda for drought forecasts.The global trend points to an increased frequency of extreme events, including more intense and prolonged droughts, along with heat waves that break temperature records every year. A recent study reveals that the frequency of so-called "planetary waves"—atmospheric patterns that can block the passage of rain systems for weeks—has tripled since the 50s. This contributes to the emergence of summers with persistently low rainfall in some areas, while others receive intense rainfall in short periods, increasing the risk of flooding.
The difficulty in predicting these phenomena remains a challenge for meteorologists, since Factors such as atmospheric instability or the influence of global phenomena such as El Niño can completely alter the expected patterns.Continuous monitoring and ongoing model updates are essential to anticipate adverse events and take appropriate action at both the local and national levels.
The current situation shows that, although the drought may be easing thanks to exceptional seasons of rain, the threat is still present and the sustainable water management and meteorological monitoring will be crucial to deal with extreme events that may arise from these changes.