In recent seasons, major hurricanes Hurricanes are showing a worrying trend: they are appearing earlier in the calendar and evolving much more rapidly. The phenomenon of cyclones reaching Category 3 or higher poses new challenges for both civil protection and weather forecasting, especially for coastal populations in Mexico, the Caribbean, and the southern coast of the United States.
This year has not been an exception and the case of Hurricane Eric has served as an illustrative example of this new reality. Erick managed to intensify from a tropical storm to a Category 4 hurricane in just twelve hours, before making landfall in Oaxaca and Guerrero as a major hurricane early Thursday morning. This behavior, classified as rapid intensification, alerts the scientific community and highlights the risks of these phenomena, which may leave little room for local authorities to react.
The phenomenon of rapid intensification and the current season
La rapid intensification Hurricanes like Erick are no longer an isolated event. What was once rare is now becoming more common during hurricane season. The case of Otis in 2023—which went from a tropical storm to hurricane 5 in half a day—or that of Milton in 2024, both in Mexico, underline the magnitude of the change. Experts agree that the ocean surface temperatures Warmer temperatures, largely attributable to climate change, provide the energy needed for these systems to strengthen within hours.
Erick It formed in mid-June, more than a month ahead of the usual average formation of hurricanes of this magnitude in the Eastern Pacific, where they would normally be seen in late July. The NHC (National Hurricane Center of the USA) and the National Meteorological Service of Mexico have highlighted the role of anomalously warm ocean waters y low wind shear in the explosive development of the cyclone.
Official forecasts indicated that Erick would reach the category of major hurricane just before making landfall. This scenario ultimately came to pass, and winds at the time of impact exceeded 220 km/h (XNUMX mph), causing torrential rains, storm surges, and the risk of landslides in large areas of Oaxaca and Guerrero.
2025 Season Forecast: Atlantic and Pacific on Alert
The agencies such as NOAA and CSU They anticipate a very active season for 2025, both in the Atlantic and Pacific. It is expected that in the Atlantic there could be up to 19 named storms and between 6 and 10 hurricanesOf these, among 3 and 5 could be higher (category 3 or higher on the Saffir-Simpson scale). In the Pacific, a significant number is also estimated, with 16 to 20 cyclones which can become dangerous hurricanes.
According to the latest CSU report, the probability that at least one major hurricane hits the United States during the season exceeds 50%, surpassing the historical average. For the Caribbean, the possibility is even greater, reaching up to 56%.
Key factors: ocean temperatures and climate change
The high ocean temperatures and the neutral conditions of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon are at the root of this increased activity. The increase in surface temperatures in the Atlantic and Pacific favors the development and further intensification of tropical systems. Experts emphasize that, while there aren't necessarily more hurricanes, the percentage of those reaching major categories is increasing.
Specialists such as Benjamín Martínez López and Christian Domínguez, from UNAM, insist on the importance of monitoring the energy stored in the oceans: The greater the warming, the greater the capacity to feed and reach historic power levels.
Names and statistics of the season
The lists of names By 2025, lists are ready in both basins, and will be reused every six years unless a name is retired. In the Atlantic, names like Andrea, Barry, Chantal, and Dexter will be used, while in the Pacific, Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, and Erick stand out. NOAA and the WMO warn that if the season becomes exceptionally active and names are exhausted, additional lists will be used.
El season start can be misleading; some years start calmly and then spawn numerous major hurricanes, as seen in 2004, when the first storm formed in July but ended with several intense hurricanes.
Recent impacts and international coordination
The experience with recent hurricanes, such as Otis, John, Agatha or Milton, highlights the importance of having monitoring systems, international cooperation and protection protocols. Erick, although it initially impacted Mexico, was constantly monitored by US agencies due to its potential to disrupt the regional atmospheric dynamics.
Thanks to Coordination between agencies such as the NHC, NOAA, and Mexican meteorological services, information flows in real time, allowing for accurate alerts to be issued and emergency strategies to be adapted, which is key to reducing risks and potential damage.
studies on rapid intensification and climate change They seek to improve prediction and response capacity to these increasingly dangerous and frequent phenomena.
In such active scenarios, authorities advise the population to stay informed and follow official recommendations. Preparation and coordination are essential to reduce the impact and protect lives in these circumstances.