In recent years, cyclonic activity outside the usual periods Hurricane season in the Mexican Pacific has become a significant concern for both meteorological experts and the population living in coastal areas. Hurricane season typically begins in May and ends in late November, but the formation of powerful tropical systems before or after this interval has been gaining notoriety and relevance. Hurricane Erika, a recent protagonist in this scenario, has rekindled the debate about the causes, consequences, and adaptability of vulnerable areas to these types of phenomena.
It is not uncommon for high-intensity hurricanes to occur before the peak of the season. or that they may come earlier in the calendar, but what is striking is the speed and force with which some of these cyclones develop. Authorities, researchers, and the population itself have had to increase their alert level in anticipation of the possibility of similar events recurring, which requires better preparation and communication for any eventuality.
Early formation and rapid intensification: warning signs
The example of Hurricane Erick is especially illustrative of how cyclones can intensify in just a few hours, developing from a low category to becoming dangerous systems that threaten areas typically unaffected during the early months of the season. In Erick's case, its evolution was so rapid that it went from category 1 to 4 in just half a day, making landfall in the early morning as a category 3, unleashing heavy rains and generating critical conditions in states such as Oaxaca and Guerrero.
For many specialists, the growing trend of these events is directly associated with the warming of the sea surface A result of global climate change. Rising sea temperatures provide more energy to cyclone formations, driving their development faster and increasing their maximum intensity. Benjamín Martínez López, a researcher at UNAM, emphasizes that the overall frequency of cyclones may not increase significantly, but the number of intense hurricanes that reach the Mexican coast will.
This phenomenon of accelerated intensification is not unique to the region. Examples such as Otis in 2023 or Milton in 2024, both developing at high speed and with devastating effects, have been analyzed by the scientific community to better understand the new challenges posed by these systems.
Off-season cyclones: really anomalous?
Historical statistics show that although most strong hurricanes form between September and October, It is not impossible for them to appear before their timeAccording to Jorge Alberto Garza Cossío, director of Metmex BCS, years considered "neutral," that is, without the marked influence of El Niño or La Niña, tend to show expected cyclonic activity. However, there have been precedents of cyclones forming outside of the traditional period, which requires special attention, even if the situation remains within the normal climatological range.
The key, according to experts, lies in constant vigilance and monitoring of ocean behavior. The most severe impacts occur in September, when conditions in the Pacific favor the formation and movement of these systems toward national territory. Areas such as Los Cabos, Baja California Sur, and other coastal areas tend to be within the most frequent paths of cyclones, so the history of impacts is an important indicator of the most vulnerable areas.
Additionally, coordination between authorities and the promotion of official information They are essential to prevent the spread of unfounded rumors or alarms. Institutions such as Civil Protection, the National Meteorological Service, and the National Water Commission are recommended sources for monitoring the progress of any cyclone, especially when they appear out of the ordinary.
Causes behind precocity and intensity
Researchers insist that The main factor behind these increasingly strong and premature phenomena It is the rise in global ocean temperatures. The "extra heat" present at the sea surface provides the energy needed for tropical storms to develop into major hurricanes in surprisingly short periods of time.
Despite media interest in the rains and floods, official figures and technical experience indicate that Rainfall in Mexico remains, in general, within historical rangesAlthough there may be areas where rainfall is above normal, there is no general pattern of increased rainfall at this time, but rather a tendency toward more concentrated and intense storms in short periods of time.
For example, for this season, both Conagua and the National Meteorological Service forecast between 16 and 20 tropical cyclones in the Pacific and 13 to 17 in the Atlantic, figures in line with the average of recent years. However, the number of hurricanes that could reach maximum categories is increasing, necessitating greater preparation and risk awareness.
This context requires a coordinated institutional response. Federal authorities have implemented protection strategies, such as catastrophe bonds and special insurance for severe events, with specific funds to address emergencies and minimize damage related to exceptional hydrometeorological events.
Direct impacts and prevention in affected areas
Recent experience with rapidly intensifying, off-season cyclones has put the spotlight on the need to better prepare for emergenciesThe damage recorded in recent years, such as that caused by Hurricanes Otis and John, demonstrates that the risk to life and infrastructure remains high, especially in coastal and rural communities. Extreme rainfall, flooding, and landslides are recurring threats that could worsen if cyclones continue to grow and occur outside the traditional calendar.
Therefore, specialists emphasize the importance of identifying risk areas, conducting more participatory drills, and strengthening prevention education. Joint work between federal, state, and municipal agencies is essential to reducing casualties and property damage. Although technology and weather prediction models have improved, abrupt weather changes remain a challenge for rapid and effective response.
The out-of-season cyclones in the Mexican Pacific have made it clear that nature doesn't always respect calendars or averages, and that vigilance, preparation, and collaboration between society and authorities are the best defense against these challenges, which, all indications are, will only increase.
