The stable and sunny weather that has characterized the last few days in Spain is about to change radically.The arrival of a new storm of Atlantic origin, which has been named Olivier, aims to completely disrupt the start of Holy Week 2025, especially with regard to outdoor activities and travel planned for this time. For more information on how the weather may affect this celebration, see the article on the weather for Easter 2025.
This meteorological disturbance, which formed in the North Atlantic, will first hit Spanish territory through the Canary Islands.According to the latest weather model estimates, Olivier will reach the islands starting Wednesday, bringing widespread rainfall, often accompanied by thunderstorms and strong gusts of wind.
Canary Islands: first territory affected by Olivier
The Canary Islands will be the first scene of Olivier's direct impact.. From early Wednesday morning, showers are expected that could reach strong or even very strong intensity. The westernmost islands—La Palma, El Hierro, La Gomera, and Tenerife—have orange level warnings due to the forecast of more than 30 liters per square meter in just one hour. In the rest of the archipelago, especially in Gran Canaria, Lanzarote and Fuerteventura, a yellow warning remains in effect. due to less intense but equally significant rainfall.
The island authorities have responded to this meteorological episode by activating their respective emergency plans.The PEIN (Island Emergency Plan) has been implemented on both the most affected islands and those where such a severe impact is not yet expected, in order to prevent flooding, landslides, or communication disruptions. To learn more about the formation of storms, visit this article on how a storm forms.
It is anticipated that rains in the Canary Islands not only be persistent, but also accompanied by thunderstorms and hail at certain times of the day. Wind gusts could exceed 70 km/h in high or exposed areas. The intensity of the event will be greatest during the early hours of Thursday morning and into the morning, spreading from west to east across the archipelago.
On Thursday the storm moves to the Iberian Peninsula
As Olivier moves northeast, the core of the storm is expected to reach the southwest of the Peninsula starting Thursday.Although it will gradually lose strength, the cold air accompanying it in the upper layers of the atmosphere will favor the formation of convective cloudiness, which will lead to localized rain, heavy downpours, and widespread precipitation in many Spanish regions. Forecasts indicate that there could be intense rain, as has happened on other occasions with the arrival of storms, as detailed in the article on Storm Nuria.
The areas most affected by the rains on the peninsula will be Galicia, Castile and León, Extremadura and the western half of Andalusia.These regions could see accumulated rainfall above 60 liters per square meter between Friday and Sunday, with peaks that could exceed 100 mm in northern Cáceres or southern Ávila. Over the weekend, The rains could also spread to inland areas such as Madrid, Castilla-La Mancha and even the Balearic Islands..
Meanwhile, the Mediterranean coast could remain unscathed by the storm for the first few days, although the weather is expected to worsen in the Balearic Islands on Sunday, with occasional heavy showers.
Calima and mud rain: the added phenomenon
Storm Olivier will not only bring moisture from the Atlantic, but will also drive a flow of southerly winds that will carry Saharan dust towards the peninsula and the Balearic Islands.This phenomenon, known as calima, will cause the precipitation to turn into mud rains or “blood rains,” a situation that is not uncommon in similar situations. It is advisable to be informed about the implications of this phenomenon, as detailed in the article on the storm Garoe.
Cloudy, orange skies will already begin to be seen on Wednesday, especially in Andalusia, Ceuta and Melilla.. Throughout Friday and the weekend, this suspended dust will combine with precipitation, leaving Mud deposits on homes, vehicles and street furnitureCalima is expected to remain active at least until Sunday across much of the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands.
On the other hand, the Canary Islands would remain largely unaffected by this episode of calima., since the prevailing wind direction and the position of the islands relative to the core of the storm would prevent dust from North Africa from reaching the archipelago in any significant way.
Repercussions on Holy Week 2025
The instability resulting from Olivier's arrival will occur at the very beginning of Holy Week., affecting many of the processions, religious events, and trips planned for these dates. The traditional Operación Salida, scheduled for Friday, could be affected by rain in the south and west of the peninsula, as well as by the reduction in visibility associated with the calima. The effects of storms on Holy Week are a topic of great interest, as explained in the article on the rains of Hurricane Leslie.
Municipalities such as Córdoba, Seville or Cáceres They are already anticipating that the rain could modify the processional routes or even cancel some events if the forecast doesn't improve. Detailed forecasts for the weekend indicate that, although the rains will be heaviest on Saturday, they could remain heavy in many communities on Sunday, further complicating religious and outdoor leisure activities.
In the center of the country, including the capital city of Madrid, moderate rains and a slight drop in temperature could also be recorded throughout the weekend.Those planning to travel to northern areas such as Galicia, Cantabria, and the Basque Country will also be affected by the instability, although to a lesser extent.
The weather forecast for the entire Holy Week is not yet 100% clear., although models suggest that instability could continue until at least Holy Tuesday. From Holy Wednesday and especially towards Good Thursday and Good FridayA window of possible weather stabilization is opening, with a decrease in cloud cover and some temperature recovery in several areas of Andalusia and the central Iberian Peninsula. However, upcoming weather updates should be closely monitored.
Meanwhile, the eastern peninsula and the Canary Islands could benefit from more stable periods., although still uncertain, especially in the Balearic Islands. In those regions, temperatures could remain within or even above normal values for this time of year, with highs around 20-23°C.
Storm Olivier will mark the beginning of an autumnal Holy Week.In which Rain, mud and wind will be the protagonists in many areas of the country. Religious celebrations and tourism plans could be affected by atmospheric instability that could last for several more days.
