Fear of a major earthquake is once again looming over Lima. after the recent earthquakes that shook the Peruvian capital. The well-known “seismic silence” The earthquake that has plagued the city since 1746 has kept experts and the population on alert, especially after the 6.1 magnitude earthquake on June 15.
The accumulation of tectonic energy In the region, which has not been spared a devastating earthquake in nearly 280 years, concerns are growing about the consequences of the next major event. Experts agree that the apparent calm is not synonymous with security, but rather a warning that the risk persists and even increases over time.
Why is there seismic silence in Lima?
According to specialists from the Geophysical Institute of Peru (IGP), the central Peruvian coast, including Lima, has not experienced a major earthquake since 1746, when an 8.8 to 9 magnitude event destroyed the city and generated a devastating tsunami. Since then, there has been a progressive accumulation of energy between the Nazca and South American tectonic plates, a process that geophysicists define as “seismic coupling.”
The president of the IGP, Hernando Tavera, highlights that Each point on the seismic magnitude scale is equivalent to releasing 30 times more energy; that is, an earthquake of magnitude 8 is equivalent to 900 times a tremor of magnitude 6. For this reason, The recent 6.1 earthquake is not enough to break the seismic silence or to reduce the threat of a major earthquake.
Vulnerable areas and risk of collapse in Lima
The most exposed areas in Lima, according to various technical reports, These are those where homes built without professional advice predominate. or on unstable soils. Districts such as San Juan de Lurigancho, Villa María del Triunfo, Comas, Independencia, Los Olivos and San Martín de Porres present high risk of a possible seismic movement of great magnitude, either due to the precariousness of the buildings or the quality of the land.
These soils, mostly sandy or with the presence of water, amplify seismic waves and can cause liquefaction, affecting both old and new buildings. On the Costa Verde and the cliffs of Lima, the risk of landslides, combined with the possibility of tsunamis, further complicates the situation.
Self-construction, which reaches up to 80% of homes According to the Peruvian College of Engineers, this is a determining factor in vulnerability. Many of these buildings were built without technical supervision, on hillsides, riverbanks, or on dunes, increasing the risk of collapse if a major earthquake occurs.
The recent 6.1 earthquake and its effects
The 6.1 magnitude earthquake, recorded on Sunday morning with its epicenter near Callao, has not been enough to reduce the risk of a major earthquake. Experts from the IGP and other agencies noted that the The energy released by this event is only a fraction of what has been accumulated over almost three centuries.Subsequent aftershocks, of smaller magnitude, have not changed the danger scenario either.
The event left one person dead and at least 36 injured, in addition to damage to health and education infrastructure, road closures, and disruptions to vulnerable neighborhoods in Metropolitan Lima and Callao. Authorities confirmed that, while fear increased, the perception of shaking was greatest in high-rise apartments and areas with soft soil.
Specialists remember that The seismic silence indicates increasing pressure underground, so preparation, community education and building reinforcement are urgent in the capital.
Tips and prevention against seismic risk
The authorities of the IGP, Civil Defense and COEN insist on the importance of the emergency backpack with basic supplies such as water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, a first-aid kit, a radio, blankets, cash, and a portable cell phone charger. In homes with pets, it is recommended that they be properly identified and registered.
It is essential that every family Identify safe zones within the home, away from windows, mirrors, and furniture that could fall. During an earthquake, take shelter under sturdy tables or next to structural walls, and avoid stairs and elevators as long as the movement lasts.
If you are on the street, it is best to Stay away from poles, cables, facades and look for open spacesAfter the earthquake, it's a good idea to check your home for damage and be alert for possible aftershocks, always following the instructions of official authorities or the media.
What to expect in the future and how to prepare?
According to experts, the question is not whether a major earthquake will occur in Lima, but when it will take placeThe Seismic Alert System Project, currently under development, will soon allow alerts to be issued a few seconds in advance, but The key remains education and preventive culture.
It is vital to strengthen municipal oversight to prevent construction in high-risk areas, require soil studies, and promote structural reinforcement of existing buildings. Participation in national drills and the formation of community response networks can make a difference in the event of a major seismic event.
The prolonged seismic silence in Lima should not be interpreted as a sign of reassurance, but rather as a reminder that the city is located in a high-risk zone. The accumulation of energy beneath the Earth's crust makes it essential to reinforce buildings, educate the population, and always maintain prevention as a priority to minimize the impact of a major earthquake, which, according to science, will happen sooner or later.