Spain 2050: An arid future according to new studies

climate change

When we think of Spain, the idea of ​​a favourable climate comes to mind, despite its diversity. The country's advantageous position at the western end of the European continent, together with its latitudinal variations and the influence of various air currents originating from both the Sahara and the North Atlantic, result in generally moderate temperatures throughout the year. This includes mild winters and warm summers, and a significant part of the country remains virtually free of severe rainy seasons.

In this article we are going to teach you Spain's arid future in 2050 according to new studies.

A new climate classification

steppe climate

The Mediterranean climate, a defining characteristic of Spain, exists predominantly in the Iberian Peninsula and the Balearic Islands. However, these conditions are likely to change in the near future.

It is indisputable that the Earth's average temperature has shown an upward trajectory, approaching critical thresholds that lead to harmful consequences such as rising sea levels, melting glaciers, increasingly severe weather events and a decline in biodiversity, among other problems.

Since the 1,2th century, human activities have contributed to an increase in the Earth's global temperature of XNUMX°C above pre-industrial levels, and current international initiatives They aim to limit this increase to 1,5 °C, or at most 2 °C, to avoid catastrophic results.

New studies on climate change

desertification

The research, carried out by professors from the UPC and the CPSV and presented at the International Congress of Meteorology of the European Meteorological Society (EMS 2024) in Barcelona, ​​​​has analyzed temperature and precipitation trends since the 1970s to 2022 using data from AEMET and the Copernicus climate service, which allows us to predict future climate conditions.

The results suggest that some regions of Spain could move from their usual Mediterranean climate to a semi-arid steppe climate by 2050 if global warming continues unabated. This alteration in the climatic structure will result in a warmer and drier environment, accompanied by a decrease in precipitation levels of between 14 and 20%.

Global warming is often accompanied by a general increase in the amount and frequency of precipitation, a phenomenon that is due to greater evaporation and an increase in atmospheric humidity, which in turn translates into an increase in precipitation.

However, this phenomenon is not occurring uniformly, as data indicate a greater propensity for drought in Mediterranean latitudes, a trend that is expected to intensify over time.

The landscape of certain regions, such as the city of Barcelona and the island of Mallorca, both located along the Mediterranean coast, will be directly affected by these climate changes when they reach a critical point. However, the broader Iberian Peninsula will experience significantly more severe weather events.

Steppe climate in Spain

Increase in droughts

As defined by the Köppen classification system, the warm steppe climate is characterized by lower humidity and a lack of cloud cover, similar to conditions seen in regions further inland from coastal areas. This climate experiences warmer summers and cold, dry winters, resulting in a more pronounced seasonal contrast. The predominant vegetation in these regions consists of herbaceous plants, including shrubs and low grasses, which also support a limited diversity of animal species.

If recent trends continue (the analysis covers the years from 1971 to 2022), it is expected that by 2050 there will be a decrease in rainfall of between 14% and 20% compared to current levels.

The results of the study indicate that, if progress continues along the same path, the predominant climate in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands is expected to transform into a steppe-type climate, categorized as cold semi-arid. This change is expected to contribute to the expansion of what is known as “brown” Spain.

More than 40% of the surface is likely to experience a transformation from a temperate climate to a dry climate, characterized by a predominance of steppe and potentially desert conditions, confirming the current trend of decreasing rainfall. The typical Mediterranean climate is projected to change from representing 24,43% of the peninsular and island territory during the reference period 1971-2000 to only 10,13% in the time frame 2040-2060.

Changes in seasons and temperature

Temperature in the Balearic Islands and mainland Spain has increased by 3,27°C, exceeding both the global average of 1,19°C and the Mediterranean region average of 1,58°C. Compared to 1971, there are now an average of 12 additional sweltering nights across the region, with certain areas, such as the southern plateau, the valleys of the Guadalquivir and Ebro rivers, and the Mediterranean coast, experiencing an increase of 30 nights since the early 1970s. At the same time, the number of summer days has grown by an average of 36 days across Spain, while the duration of heat waves has lengthened, now lasting between 3 and 9 days longer. A clear trend towards drought is observed across most of the territory.

Almost two more months of summer accompanied by a longer duration of drought. It is expected that by 2050 the average temperature in the country will increase by 1,43º ​​compared to the years 2013-2022. On average, summer days (SD) are expected to increase by 22,7 days, while tropical nights will increase by 7,2 nights throughout Spain in relation to the aforementioned period. This change would equate to almost two additional months of summer compared to the 1971 period.

By 2050, average annual rainfall in mainland Spain and the Balearic Islands is expected to decrease significantly to approximately 417 mm, which is 126,3 mm less than the average recorded during the period from 1971 to 2000. Although periods of drought are expected to be longer, cases of extreme rainfall will be more intense.

I hope that with this information you can learn more about Spain's future in terms of climate.


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