The government released a study this year in which it predicts that 75% of the area is at risk of becoming at risk if things do not change. Forceful and alarming. However, there are so many news related to climate catastrophism that only 0,6% of Spaniards are interested in it. And, yes, positive news is needed, but… What is happening? Why don't people react? It's called "the boiled frog syndrome." The French philosopher and writer Olivier Clerc, explained this phenomenon that he detected turning it into a fable. It is applicable to all people, since it happens to all of us in some aspect of our life. The boiled frog syndrome invites us to reflect on our lives with this real analogy.
A frog that is inside a pot about to boil would jump, not to die. However, if the frog were inside the pot, and the water temperature rose little by little at a rate of 0,02ºC per minute, it would not. The process is very slow and imperceptible, and as soon as you become aware of the problem, it is too late and you die boiled. In history, this problem has occurred on more than one occasion. Sometimes gradually, sometimes exponentially. We can find this problem even between the resources of our planet and the overpopulation that occupies us. A little analysis makes us see how we have multiplied faster and faster. And while it seems that we will not continue to grow at such an unbridled rate, we will continue to grow. With climate change, the consequences are the same, they are seen, and we see it as something still distant.
Future risks of desertification in Spain
By 2090, it is estimated that between 75% and 80% of the world's land surface is at risk of desertification. The National Action Program to Combat Desertification shows us the areas most prone to these changes. The government is committed to implementing initiatives in all sectors, especially those involving greater water resources, forestry, and agriculture. The response is threefold. First, to prevent more areas from becoming desertified. Second, to rehabilitate areas that have already been desertified. Finally, to sustainably develop those arid areas that cannot be restored.
Paleoecologists Joel Guiot and Wolfgang Cramer announced in the journal Science that by 2090, half of Spain would be like the Sahara. This scenario, along with the predicted temperature increases and the ongoing record-breaking events, such as this summer, make these predictions at least somewhat far-fetched, even for the most skeptical. Temperature increases of 3 to 4 degrees in Madrid will make it as hot as Casablanca. And new ecosystems will emerge in the Mediterranean basin that haven't been seen in 10.000 years. To better understand these changes, it's interesting to review the temperature records in Spain and in turn, you can also observe the warmest places in the country.
The most affected places in the Mediterranean and in Spain
Changes in precipitation are also another factor. Among the most affected regions will be Murcia and the Valencian Community. These are the places where the effects of climate change are most expected. And indeed, the entire dry and semi-arid Mediterranean climate zone. Among the most pronounced periods for seeing the consequences of desertification is the period between 2041 and 2070. The rate is expected to be very high, and although it is assumed that some changes will be inevitable, every effort will be made to mitigate the effects. To better understand the current situation, it is important to consider the deserts threatened by global warming.
Paco Gil, secretary of the Agrarian Union Organization, explains that it's not about being alarmist, but rather the realism of what's happening. "The rainfall has been what it's been for two decades, so saying that the desert is knocking louder and louder at our door every day isn't alarmist," he says, referring to the catastrophe already unfolding in Murcia. It's essential to consider the risks of desertification in the future, as well as review the situation of the phenomenon of desertification in Spain.
We must take measures, all in general, and be aware of the future that awaits us. The desert is gaining more and more ground to the north, and it will not be solved by sprinkling a traffic roundabout showing green grass.
