By Editorial
Xalapa, Veracruz, December 21, 2025.— State meteorological authorities maintain a Special Notice due to the presence of a trough in the southwest Gulf of Mexico, a system that will continue to reinforce a widespread period of rain and storms over much of the state of Veracruz for several days.
According to official forecasts, The instability will continue from this Sunday, December 21st, until at least Friday, December 26th.with periods of relative decrease but without ruling out new increases. Authorities insist that the population remain attentive to Civil Protection reports and avoid underestimating the risk associated with continued rainfall.
Trough in the Gulf of Mexico: Origin of the Special Advisory
The current situation is due to a trough established in the southwest Gulf of MexicoA low-pressure trough, combined with wind divergence at high levels of the atmosphere and the constant supply of moisture from the gulf itself, is creating an environment very conducive to the development of clouds with large vertical development.
This system, according to the Subdirectorate of Meteorological Studies and Forecasts of the Secretariat of Civil Protection (SPC), It tends to intensify at certain points in the episodeThis explains the strongest rainfall peaks expected between Sunday and Monday, and the subsequent reactivation of the storm in the middle of the week.
The SPC details that The trough is supported by a marked pattern of instability in the upper atmosphereThis circumstance increases the likelihood of thunderstorms with frequent lightning, gusts of wind, and possible hail in some areas, as has been seen in other regions. Hail and heavy rain alertThe generation of vortices associated with the most intense convective cells cannot be ruled out in isolation.
This type of weather pattern is not unusual in the region, but the persistence of the system over time and the wide extent of the affected areas These are the factors that justify the issuance of a Special Notice and subsequent preventive alerts, such as the so-called "Gray Alert" for probable cold fronts.
The authorities recall that the combination of very heavy rainfall over a few days and its distribution over several basins It increases the likelihood of hydrological problems, even if at times the sky appears clearer or the rainfall seems to subside.
Most affected regions and projected totals
The various reports agree that the Cazones to Colipa and Papaloapan to Tonalá basins They concentrate the greatest risk of heavy to very heavy rainfall, with accumulations that, between Sunday and Monday, could range between 70 and 150 millimeters, without ruling out specific higher values.
At the northern VeracruzBetween the Pánuco and Tuxpan river basins, moderate to heavy rains are expected, with totals between 50 and 70 millimeters on the days of greatest activity. Towards the central region, from La Antigua to Jamapa-Cotaxtla, Rainfall is estimated at 30 to 70 millimeters, with intense episodes occurring more dispersedly.
At the southern part of the stateThe Coatzacoalcos to Tonalá basins and areas adjacent to the Papaloapan remain under special surveillance, as heavy rains with thunderstorms are expected. particularly in the regions of Coatzacoalcos, Las Choapas and Los TuxtlasThe models point to totals of 50 to 70 millimeters, with possible higher peaks in the mountains and slopes.
The state agency also warns that, although on average ranges of 5 to 30 millimeters per day are handled In some areas, storm cells can generate much more intense localized downpours, capable of causing local problems in a matter of minutes.
In parallel, the coastal strip is expected to experience high waves of up to 1,5 meters and winds from the North, Northeast and East between 20 and 35 km/h, with gusts that can reach 45 to 55 km/h in coastal areas and during the passage of the most organized storms.
Forecast by day during the Special Advisory
The SPC has broken down the expected behavior of the storm to offer a clearer guide to the evolution of rainfall in Veracruz, emphasizing that The key dates are concentrated between Sunday the 21st and Thursday the 25th., with a downward trend starting on Friday the 26th.
Domingo 21: The period of most significant rainfall has begun, with average accumulations of 5 to 30 millimeters and maximums near 70 millimeters in the north and central parts of the state. Thunderstorms, gusty winds, and the possibility of hail are expected. snow or sleet on the peaks of Cofre de Perote and Pico de Orizaba overnight.
22 moons: Day designated as of the event's greatest impactThe probability of heavy to very heavy rain and thunderstorms extends across much of the state, with widespread accumulations of 10 to 30 millimeters and maximums of 70 to 150 millimeters between the Cazones and Colipa river basins and the Papaloapan and Tonalá river basins. Totals of 30 to 50 millimeters are expected in the rest of the state, although higher amounts are possible in some areas.
During this day, the The wind will blow from the Northwest, North, and Northeast. with wind speeds of 20 to 35 km/h and gusts of 40 to 55 km/h along the coast and in storm areas. The weather will remain mild to relatively hot, with mostly cloudy skies.
23 Tuesday: Expected a slight decrease in the intensity of rainfallAlthough the probability of isolated showers and thunderstorms remains, rainfall totals are expected to range from 5 to 20 millimeters on average, with maximums of 50 to 70 millimeters in the Papaloapan and Tonalá river basins and 20 to 50 millimeters in the rest of Veracruz.
Wednesday 24: The forecast indicates intervals of clouds with Isolated showers of 5 to 20 millimeters in generalRainfall amounts of 20 to 50 millimeters are expected between the Coatzacoalcos and Tonalá river basins. Winds will vary from the North, Northeast, East, and Southeast at speeds between 20 and 35 km/h, with gusts up to 45 km/h along the southern coast, and the possibility of stronger gusts in storm areas.
Thursday 25: The potential for rain remains, with accumulations similar to Wednesday's and maximums of 50 to 70 millimeters in the Blanco and Papaloapan river basins, as well as 30 to 50 millimeters in the plains and coastal areas of central and southern Mexico. The weather will continue to be mild to relatively warm, with high humidity.
Viernes 26: Both the SPC and other meteorological services point to a gradual decrease in rainfall potentialHowever, caution is advised, as the ground will remain saturated and any additional showers could affect waterways and areas most vulnerable to flooding.
Local conditions: Veracruz-Boca del RÃo and mountainous areas
At Veracruz-Boca del RÃo metropolitan areaThe forecast for Friday the 26th indicates a minimum temperature around 19°C and a maximum close to 28°C, with partly cloudy to cloudy skies and Morning rain and showers of between 5 and 20 millimeters.
During this day, it is expected that the wind changes from North to East and Northeastwith sustained speeds of 15 to 30 km/h. After a rainy Christmas Eve and Christmas Day, less intense rainfall is expected, although still present along both coastal municipalities.
In the mountainous and higher altitude regionsAt peaks like Cofre de Perote and Pico de Orizaba, models predict the possibility of snow or sleet during periods of colder air, especially Sunday night and early Monday morning. These conditions could make driving difficult on mountain roads and lead to icy conditions on shaded sections.
Combining Soaked slopes, persistent rain, and unstable terrain The probability of landslides, mudslides and landslides increases in mountain areas, so special attention is requested from those who live near slopes or regularly travel on mountain roads.
The authorities suggest that, at any sign of ground cracking, wall deformation or subsidence near homes, the municipal Civil Protection should be notified immediately to assess possible preventive measures.
Main risks: flooding, gusty winds and lightning strikes
The Civil Protection Secretariat emphasizes that The most likely effects of this episode will be urban flooding.Rapid runoff and flash flooding of streams and smaller watercourses, especially in areas with poor or saturated drainage.
The electrical activity associated with storms, with continuous discharges, poses an additional danger outdoors. Therefore, it is advised Avoid taking shelter under isolated trees or tall metal structuresand disconnect equipment sensitive to power surges during the most intense storms.
Another worrying aspect is the gusty wind that accompanies convective cells. These gusts can cause branches, trees, billboards and other poorly secured objects to fall, as well as damage to lightweight roofs and precarious structures.
Finally, the combination of rain, wind, and fog in some sections causes reduced visibility on roadsThis increases the likelihood of accidents. It is recommended to exercise extreme caution while driving, increase following distance, and avoid using high beams in dense fog.
Civil Protection recommendations and possible Gray Alert
Given this scenario, the Veracruz Civil Protection Secretariat (SPC) has issued a series of recommendations directed to both the general population and municipal authorities, reminding them that Prevention is key when it comes to prolonged rain events.
The suggested measures include: Do not attempt to cross swollen rivers, streams, or fordsAvoid walking or driving through flooded areas where the depth is unknown; check and clear drains and gutters in homes and streets to facilitate water runoff; and keep patios and rooftops clean of objects that could be blown away by the wind.
Similarly, emphasis is placed on the importance of have a family emergency planwhich includes a safe meeting point, a small backpack with basic items (flashlight, batteries, water, essential medicines) and the contact numbers of emergency authorities.
The Secretariat also recommends closely following weather forecast updates through official channels, including the SPC website and social media, where the content of the Special Notice and any subsequent modifications are published. as well as the possible issuance of a Grey Alert linked to the arrival of new cold fronts.
Models suggest that, once the trough-induced storm begins to subside, A cold front could enter the Veracruz territory Towards the end of December, with likely effects of northerly winds, a drop in temperatures and a new increase in rainfall, which would extend the unstable atmosphere beyond the Christmas holidays.
Meanwhile, the official climatological calendar reminds us that The frost season extends approximately from October to the end of MarchThis coincides with the period of cold fronts and "north" wind events, so new outbreaks of cold air capable of generating frost in high areas of the state cannot be ruled out.
With a landscape marked by a persistent trough, thunderstorms, risk of flooding and the possible arrival of cold fronts, Veracruz faces several days of unsettled weather in the final stretch of the yearFollowing official warnings, taking extra precautions when traveling, and applying simple self-protection measures can make all the difference in reducing the impacts of this rainy episode and facing the changes that will continue to arrive from the Gulf of Mexico with greater safety.
