The cabaƱuelas, that ancestral method of weather prediction which is still very much alive in Spain, has once again captured attention in this month of June 2025. While many are thinking about vacations and stable heat, the warnings coming from both traditional experts and official bodies They point to an atypical summer, especially in July, where the weather is expected to be much more variable than usual.
In recent days there have been a proliferation of forecasts that They highlight the growing instability in the atmosphereVarious sources are emphasizing that the current signs are not the usual signs of a stable, dry summer, but rather that episodes of rain, drops in temperature, and storms are brewing in unusual areas and at unusual times.
The cabaƱuelas method: tradition and modernity
In Spain, cabaƱuelas have been used for centuries to anticipate what the coming months will be like weather-wise. Some of its latest proponents, such as the young Burgos native Jorge Rey, have popularized this tool again by combining the traditional observation with digital disseminationRey rose to fame after accurately predicting Storm Filomena, and since then, his climate analyses have sparked considerable interest.
According to the King himself and other experts on cabaƱuelas, The atmosphere is already showing signs of significant changes.. After a spring described as warm and very humid by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET), with rainfall well above normal in regions of the central and northern peninsula, June is proving to be particularly variableWe are experiencing early heat waves, high-temperature nights, and, at the same time, the development of storms that could gain strength as the month progresses.
July under the microscope: classic summer or surprises?
Most predictions point to an unstable July. The cabaƱuelas not only predict unusual rains and storms in large areas of the country, but They deny the arrival of continuous heat waves in areas such as the northern peninsula. Jorge Rey insists that "the atmosphere is already preparing," and what is coming It doesn't look like the typical pattern of a constant, dry summer. He warns that this July could bring organized storm systems, sudden drops in temperature, and alternating hot days with grayer and even rainy ones.
In line with these forecasts, AEMET supports the arrival of instability, indicating the possibility of particularly intense storms in the interior of the eastern Iberian Peninsula (Castilla-La Mancha, Aragon, Navarre, Valencian Community) and in mountainous areas. For the next few days and during the transition from June to July, Cold air pockets are expected at altitude which, when colliding with the accumulated heat, will lead to heavy showers, hail and occasionally intense gusts of wind.
The context of high temperatures in some areas, with values āāexpected above 36-38 ĀŗC in the south and the Balearic Islands, contrasts with the possibility of sharp declines In the northwest and central regions, where the arrival of fronts will bring cooler and wetter days. Variability will be the dominant trend, creating uncertainty even for usual vacation plans.
Local news and proverbs: CabaƱuelas in practice
In provinces like Salamanca, the local experts in cabaƱuelas They emphasize the role of the southern winds and the typical sayings: "In June, a dark mist only lasts three days." According to these predictions for the week, the weather will alternate between intense heat and situations prone to the formation of storms, especially from midweek onward. Highs remain high and lows don't drop too much, ensuring mild nights across much of the plateau.
In contrast to the uniformity predicted by some classic methods such as the Zaragoza Almanac, the cabaƱuelas focus on the importance of local details and the daily evolution of the skyIn towns like PeƱaranda, Ciudad Rodrigo, and Vitigudino, heat and storm activity are expected to coexist, requiring adjustments to forecasts and alertness to possible sudden changes.
It is also noteworthy that the Reservoirs in the area remain at a good level, a result of the wet spring, a relevant fact in the face of possible heat waves and for the water supply in summer.
Atmosphere predictions and variability in summer
The parallelism between the CabaƱuelas indicators and the AEMET forecasts is becoming increasingly evident with regard to instability and extreme events. Both sources agree in warning of the coexistence of episodes of very intense heat with the arrival of strong storms, especially in the inland areas of the south and east of the peninsula. This pattern is expected to continue through the start of July and even move northward as the month progresses.
Predictions suggest that there will be no prolonged heat waves in the north, and that Temperature drops will even be noticeable in areas of Castile and LeĆ³n and the upper Ebro. The Agency also adds the possibility of fog, mist, and haze in the southeast of the peninsula and the Balearic Islands, and recommends paying attention to warnings of strong storms accompanied by hail and wind.
