The El NiƱo phenomenon, which has already been officially declared active by NOAA, is intensifying at a faster rate than expected. The latest projections indicate an 81% probability that it will reach a "very strong" intensity between October and December of this year, leading experts to refer to it as a "Super El NiƱo." This climatic event, characterized by an anomalous warming of the equatorial Pacific, could have repercussions across the globe, including Europe.
Although the El NiƱo signal in the Mediterranean basin is usually weak, models suggest that this time it could be more pronounced. In Spain, the Meteorological Service of Catalonia has already warned that high Mediterranean temperatures combined with a Super El NiƱo could bring heavy downpours during the autumn and next spring. Furthermore, historically, the strongest El NiƱo events have led to milder winters in the mid-latitudes of Europe, a scenario that cannot be ruled out for the 2026-2027 season.
What is El NiƱo and why is it a cause for concern?
El NiƱo is a natural climate phenomenon that occurs when the waters of the equatorial Pacific warm above normal levels. NOAA, which monitors the ocean, declared its onset on June 11 and estimated at that time a 63% probability that temperatures would exceed 2Ā°C , the threshold that defines a "very strong" event. However, in recent weeks that percentage has risen to 81%, according to subsequent updates from the same agency and other international organizations.
This warming is already exceptional: in some areas of the Pacific, water temperatures are well above normal, with values āāsimilar to those recorded during the major El NiƱo events of 1982-83, 1997-98, and 2015-16. The speed at which the ocean is warming is unprecedented , experts warn, leading them to believe we are experiencing a Super El NiƱo. The World Meteorological Organization has already indicated that wetter-than-normal conditions are expected in southern Europe in the coming months.
Possible effects in Europe and Spain
In Spain, the scientific community is closely monitoring the evolution of the Super El NiƱo. Dr. Vicent Altava, a physicist at Meteocat, has stated that a thermal anomaly like the current one has never been recorded before and that "we are entering uncharted territory." According to Altava, if the phenomenon behaves like the strongest ones in the past, and considering that the Mediterranean is already very warm, intense downpours could occur in autumn, especially in the Terres de l'Ebre region, northern CastellĆ³n, and, to a lesser extent, the eastern Pyrenees. Both Meteocat and the WMO agree that southern Europe could experience an increase in rainfall.
The expert also noted that the effects could be more noticeable in the spring of 2027. Although Meteocat avoids alarmism, Altava acknowledges that the climate situation "doesn't look too good" due to the continued rise in global temperatures. Climate change, he warns, is exacerbating extreme weather events. Meanwhile, NOAA models indicate that mid-latitude Europe could experience a milder-than-usual winter, with above-average temperatures, which aligns with WMO projections for a wetter southern Europe.
Preparations and recommendations
With the Super El NiƱo imminent, European meteorological authorities have intensified their monitoring. In Spain, Meteocat has already activated monitoring protocols and recommends that the public stay informed through official channels . Although extreme weather events cannot be predicted with certainty, preparedness is key to minimizing damage. Experts emphasize the importance of prevention: checking roofs and drainage systems, avoiding building in flood-prone areas, and having a family emergency plan.
Furthermore, agriculture and livestock farming must adapt to a more variable climate , with potential alternations between droughts and torrential rains. Organizations such as the FAO have already warned about the global impact on food prices, and although Europe is not the most affected region, the interconnectedness of markets means that any disruption will also be felt in the shopping basket.
A global phenomenon with local consequences
Super El NiƱo is not a problem exclusive to the Pacific. Its effects are felt across a cascade: from rising food prices to strain on energy systems. In Europe, although the signal is weaker, climate teleconnections can alter wind and temperature patterns , favoring, for example, milder winters and a greater likelihood of storms in the Mediterranean. Global warming acts as an amplifier, and as various experts point out, extreme weather events will be exacerbated by a warmer planet.
The scientific community agrees that the only way to reduce risk is to take action against climate change and improve the resilience of infrastructure. Meanwhile, all eyes are on the Pacific, where ocean temperatures continue to rise, marking the pulse of a phenomenon that, according to all forecasts, will shape the climate in the coming months.
With an over 80% probability that a Super El NiƱo event will solidify in the coming months, Europe and Spain are preparing for an atypical autumn and winter. Higher-than-normal temperatures, the risk of torrential rains in the Mediterranean, and the possibility of a mild winter are the scenarios meteorologists are considering. The key will be anticipation and adaptation to a climate that increasingly reminds us that extreme weather events are part of the new normal.