The Mexican monsoon is once again a major feature during the summer of 2025, affecting a large part of the country, especially the northwest. This atmospheric phenomenon, which usually begins in late June and lasts until September, is responsible for a significant increase in rainfall and thunderstorms in several states. To learn more about its characteristics, see our article "The Mexican Monsoon: Heavy Rains, Risks, and Forecasts for the Coming Days ."
The National Meteorological Service (SMN) regularly issues updated advisories on the monsoon's evolution and the behavior of other associated atmospheric systems, helping the public prepare for the possibility of heavy rainfall, strong winds, and hail . Consulting these reports has become an essential practice for those living in regions most exposed to these weather changes.
What is the Mexican monsoon and how does it originate?
The Mexican monsoon , also known as the North American monsoon, is a dramatic shift in wind direction that brings humid air from the Pacific Ocean and the Gulf of California into northwestern Mexico. This shift leads to a significant increase in rainfall and cloud cover, resulting in dry mornings followed by showers and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening. To better understand its impact, you can visit the page "Cloud Seeding in Sinaloa: A Strategy to Combat Drought and Replenish Reservoirs ."
Monsoon rains help alleviate drought in regions such as Sonora, Chihuahua, Durango, Sinaloa, and Nayarit. In these states, up to 65% of the annual rainfall can be attributed to this phenomenon, according to data from the National Water Commission (Conagua). However, its intensity and duration vary each year, influenced by factors such as El Niño, La Niña, and climate change.
Affected states and rainfall forecast for July 2025
According to records from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the National Water Commission (Conagua), the Mexican monsoon will bring heavy rains to northwestern states in July 2025, as well as showers to other nearby areas. The following are expected:
- Heavy rain showers (75 to 150 mm): Zacatecas (west and south), Nayarit (center and south) and Jalisco (north and west).
- Very heavy rains (50 to 75 mm): Sinaloa, Durango, Aguascalientes, Michoacán, Guanajuato, State of Mexico, Puebla, Guerrero, Oaxaca and Chiapas.
- Heavy rains (25 to 50 mm): Sonora, Chihuahua, Coahuila, Nuevo Leon, San Luis Potosi, Colima, Queretaro, Hidalgo, Morelos, Tlaxcala, Mexico City, Tamaulipas, Veracruz, Tabasco, Campeche, Yucatan and Quintana Roo.
- Showers (5 to 25 mm): Baja California South.
In addition to lightning and possible hail , strong winds and high temperatures remain a major concern. Hot weather is expected, with temperatures potentially exceeding 45°C in northeastern Baja California and central Sonora, and between 40 and 45°C in southwestern Chihuahua and northern Sinaloa. For more details, see our recommendations at [link to recommendations].
Impact on the annual rainfall cycle
The rainfall generated by the Mexican monsoon is not only essential for replenishing reservoirs and aquifers, but also allows for the recovery of the countryside and benefits agriculture, livestock and the environment, especially in areas that have suffered prolonged droughts during the year.
In some years, experts have observed that the monsoon can account for 60 to 80% of the total annual rainfall in northwestern states. However, its behavior is not identical every year: its onset, intensity, and extent can change due to local and global climate variables. For efficient water resource management, see the use of rainwater in nature.
The monsoon usually concentrates in the northwest strip , although under certain atmospheric circulation conditions, it can bring significant rains to areas of the center of the country, even affecting Mexico City, the State of Mexico and Puebla, especially if it coincides with low pressure troughs or tropical waves.
Dangers and recommendations in light of the intense rains
While the Mexican monsoon is essential for mitigating drought, it can also cause flooding, landslides, and damage in cities and rural areas. Given the forecast of storms and heavy rains, Civil Protection and the National Meteorological Service (SMN) emphasize the importance of paying attention to warnings and taking preventative measures: avoiding crossing swollen rivers, checking the condition of roofs and gutters, and preparing evacuation routes in case of emergency.
Monitoring official reports and adapting to changing climate conditions are key to addressing the challenges associated with this phenomenon. Learn more about risk management at .
This summer of 2025, the Mexican monsoon has demonstrated how it can transform the daily lives of millions of people: from providing relief to agricultural areas to posing risks of torrential rains. Staying informed and taking preventative measures is the best way to reap the benefits and reduce the dangers associated with this natural phenomenon.
