Asteroid 2024 YR4 has put the international scientific community on alert, and for the first time in history, the United Nations has activated its Planetary Security Protocol. This space object, discovered at the end of December 2024 through the ATLAS telescope in Chile, has become a priority for the European Space Agency (ESA) and NASA due to its trajectory and the possibility, although low, that it will impact the Earth in December 2032.
With an estimated diameter between 40 and 100 meters, If it were to collide, it could cause the destruction of an entire city.However, astronomers insist that the probability of an impact is relatively low, currently standing at 1,6%, according to the latest estimates. Despite this low percentage, the 1% threshold is sufficient to trigger the UN security mechanisms designed to manage this type of space threats.
An asteroid under surveillance
Since its discovery, 2024 YR4 has been monitored by various observatories and space agencies. Currently, it is classified at level 3 on the Turin Scale., which means that it is an object that, although it does not represent an immediate alarm, requires detailed monitoring. The last time an asteroid achieved a similar classification was with Apophis in 2004, when an impact probability of 2,7% was estimated for 2029, although this risk was later ruled out.
The Space Mission Planning Advisory Group (SMPAG) and the International Asteroid Warning Network (IAWN) have already held meetings to assess the situation and determine the steps to follow in case the threat persistsESA has confirmed that it will continue to collect data and adjust its calculations on the asteroid's trajectory.
Where could it impact?
Current calculations suggest that, in the event of a collision, 2024 YR4 could fall into a band spanning northern South America, the Atlantic Ocean, parts of the African continent and southern Asia. The probabilities indicate that the impact would occur in the ocean or in a sparsely populated area., which would reduce the risk of loss of human life.
Despite the uncertainty surrounding its final trajectory, astronomers hope that more precise data will be available in 2028, when the asteroid approaches Earth again. At that time, The most advanced telescopes will be able to study its orbit with greater accuracy. y determine whether the risk is still present or whether the possibility of impact can be ruled out.
Options in case of real threat
If future studies confirm that there are possibilities of collision, there are several strategies that could be implemented. One of the most viable options would be Deflect the asteroid using a DART-like mission, a NASA probe that in 2022 managed to change the trajectory of the asteroid Dimorphos. This test demonstrated that it is possible to modify the course of these celestial bodies by hitting them with a special ship.
In the event that diversion is not feasible or impact is unavoidable, the UN is considering evacuation measures in areas within the potential impact corridor. The main objective is to minimize damage and ensure the safety of the population..
An opportunity to learn
Planetary defense experts point out that 2024 YR4 represents a great opportunity to test systems and protocols for action in case a more dangerous asteroid is detected in the future. Although the current risk remains low, These types of events allow for fine-tuning prediction and response mechanisms..
From April 2025, the asteroid will no longer be visible to ground-based telescopes until its next close approach in 2028. During this time, Astronomers will continue to analyze the data collected to date. to further improve orbital calculations and ensure the best possible preparation.
Humanity has demonstrated that it has the technology and the ability to coordinate internationally to respond to such threats. Although the chances of impact of 2024 YR4 are low, Monitoring and planning are key to being prepared for any eventuality in the future..