In the final stretch of the first half of June 2025, the attention of meteorologists and civil protection authorities is focused on the evolution of several cyclone systems that are marking the beginning of the season both in the Eastern Pacific as in the Atlantic. The focus is especially on the potential hurricane Erick, whose trajectory and intensification have kept various areas of Mexico and nearby regions on alert. Meanwhile, the North Atlantic presents a very different picture, with no named storms or hurricanes to date, which is also not unusual for the month.
In this meteorological context, the southern and southeastern states of Mexico and several countries in Central America they have registered heavy rainfall and activation of prevention plans due to the threat of tropical cyclones. The rains and the presence of systems such as Dalila and the probable Erick have generated conditions that require maximum surveillance, especially in areas vulnerable to flooding and landslides.
Erick's development: possible first Pacific hurricane of the year
According to the most recent reports of the National Meteorological Service of Mexico (SMN) and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) of the United States, the system initially known as Invest 94E has been consolidated as the Potential Tropical Cyclone Five-E off the coast of El Salvador, Guatemala and southern Mexico. Weather models point to a probable strengthening, estimating that Erick could reach the category of tropical storm Tuesday, June 17, and rapidly evolve into a hurricane between Wednesday night and Thursday morning, coinciding with its possible landfall between Oaxaca and Guerrero. To better understand how a development occurs tropical cyclone and its formation, we invite you to consult this article.
The Mexican authorities have issued zones of hurricane and tropical storm warning for different areas of the Pacific coast, including prevention from Puerto Ángel to Punta MaldonadoA scenario conducive to rapid intensification of the system is also expected, raising concerns about the possibility of Erick reaching major hurricane status before making landfall.
If this trend is confirmed, Erick would be the First named storm to make landfall in the 2025 season in this basin, adding to the already active eastern Pacific season.
Forecast impacts: heavy rains and alerts in Mexico and Central America
The heavier rainfall During this week, they are expected in the states of Guerrero, Oaxaca, Chiapas and Veracruz, with accumulated amounts that could range between 75 and 150 mm, and even surpass the 200 mm in some localized areas, increasing the risk of river flooding, flooding, and landslides. Other states such as Michoacán, State of Mexico, Puebla, Jalisco and Yucatan peninsula will experience rains of varying intensity, while areas in the north and center of the country could also experience showers associated with cloud formations from these systems.
En Guatemala, although potential tropical cyclone 5E will not have a direct impact, its influence is manifested in the increase in humidity and cloudiness, generating Morning drizzle and thunderstorms in the afternoon and evening, especially in the regions of the south, center and eastern valleysGuatemalan authorities have issued specific recommendations regarding the possibility of lahars, flash floods, and surges.
The Atlantic is calm: no tropical cyclones in mid-June
Unlike the Pacific, the Ocean remains without any named cyclone systems until June 15. Although seasonal forecasts anticipate a more active season than normal, the absence of storms on these dates It is not unusual. Factors such as sea surface temperatures below average in the main formation region (MDR), the presence of Saharan dust and a still dry and hostile environment in the tropical Atlantic have so far limited cyclone development.
Meanwhile, meteorologists' attention is focused on the Gulf of Mexico and the Caribbean, where the waters are warmer and any incoming system could rapidly intensify. Furthermore, the ENSO phenomenon remains neutral, with neither El Niño nor La Niña present, which is important for assessing wind shear, one of the most important factors for cyclone formation in the region.
Along with the potential development of Erick, the eastern Pacific has already recorded the formation of several named systems, including Alvin, Barbara, Cosme and the imminent Delilah. The progress of Delilah Off the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, it is also generating significant rainfall in the west, center, and south of the country, and cloud formations continue to maintain the recommendation to avoid crossing flooded areas and remain alert to official warnings.
By the end of the week, some remnants of moisture associated with these systems are expected to reach as far as the south texas, increasing the expectation of heavy rains and the need for emergency preparedness in the southern United States.
The month of June 2025 marks a start of the season in which the The eastern Pacific is much more active than the Atlantic., but surveillance and preparedness remain priorities for both authorities and residents of potentially affected coastal areas.
