In recent weeks, asteroid 2024 YR4 had generated considerable anticipation and concern due to a possible collision with Earth in 2032. Initial calculations indicated a 1% probability of impact , prompting the UN to activate the Planetary Safety Protocol , a procedure used in cases of significant astronomical risks. You can read more about the protocol here.
However, following further assessments by various astronomical observatories and space agencies, the probability of impact has decreased dramatically, now reaching virtually zero. Thanks to high-precision telescopes, such as the Very Large Telescope (VLT) of the European Southern Observatory , its trajectory can be predicted with greater accuracy.
A change in initial calculations
During February, studies revealed a temporary increase in the probability of impact, reaching 3.1% . This figure placed 2024 YR4 at the top of the list of celestial objects considered potentially hazardous. However, days later, with additional observations, this percentage quickly dropped to a record low. Potentially hazardous asteroids are constantly monitored to prevent any surprises.
Astronomers explain that this phenomenon occurs because, initially, calculations are based on inaccurate orbits due to insufficient data. As more measurements are taken, the asteroid's trajectory is refined with greater precision, reducing the uncertainty surrounding its course. To learn more about how the risk assessment for asteroid 2024 YR4 is conducted, you can consult the information on the following link to the page about detecting hazardous asteroids.
The role of NASA and ESA
Space agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency (ESA) played a crucial role in reassessing the risk. Through the Near-Earth Object Coordination Centre , both entities have continued to closely monitor the asteroid to ensure it does not pose a future threat. Their strategies include identifying objects that require priority attention.
One of the key aspects of this process has been the use of the James Webb Space Telescope , which detects infrared light and thus provides a clearer picture of the asteroid's composition and movement. Thanks to this technology, new calculations have confirmed that the probability of a collision with Earth is reduced to just 0.001% , a negligible number in terms of actual risk.
What would happen in case of impact?
Although the danger has been virtually ruled out, the possibility of a collision with an asteroid of this size is always a topic of scientific interest. With an estimated size of 40 to 90 meters , in the event of an impact, 2024 YR4 could generate an explosion equivalent to a large-scale nuclear detonation. These types of events are considered in studies of potential asteroid impacts.
However, experts explain that, should an impact occur, the asteroid would most likely explode in the atmosphere before reaching the surface , just as happened in the Tunguska event of 1908. This phenomenon would significantly reduce the potential damage to an inhabited area. For more information on how risk reduction is carried out in the event of an impact, see the article on the Tunguska event and the existing theories.
Preventive measures against future threats
The monitoring and control of asteroids like 2024 YR4 demonstrates the importance of having mitigation protocols and strategies for events of this type. In this regard, the scientific community continues to explore various forms of planetary protection.
- Kinetic impact: Sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and modify its trajectory. This was successfully tested in 2022 with the DART mission.
- Deflection by lasers: Heating the surface of the asteroid with powerful lasers to generate a change in its direction.
- Nuclear explosion in space: Although it is an extreme option, it is considered in case of imminent threats, with the aim of fragmenting the asteroid into smaller, less dangerous pieces.
Constant monitoring of these celestial bodies is key to planetary safety . Although the threat posed by 2024 YR4 has been almost entirely ruled out, its study has helped improve observation and response protocols for similar future events. This monitoring is essential for understanding asteroids and their behavior.
