In recent weeks, the asteroid 2024 YR4 had generated great expectations and concern due to a possible collision with Earth in the year 2032. The first calculations indicated a 1% chance of impact, which led the UN to activate the Planetary Security Protocol, a procedure used in cases of significant astronomical risks. You can read more about the protocol here.
However, after new evaluations carried out by different astronomical observatories and space agencies, the probability of impact has decreased drastically, now reaching practically zero values. Thanks to high-precision telescopes, such as the Very Large Telescope (VLT) of the European Southern Observatory, it has been possible to improve the prediction of its trajectory with greater accuracy.
A change in initial calculations
During the month of February, studies revealed a temporary increase in the probability of impact, reaching 3.1%. This figure placed 2024 YR4 at the top of the list of celestial objects considered potentially dangerous. However, days later, with additional observations, this percentage was quickly reduced to a historic low. potentially dangerous asteroids They are constantly monitored to avoid surprises.
Astronomers explain that this phenomenon is due to the fact that, at first, the calculations were based on inaccurate orbits Due to a lack of sufficient data, the asteroid's trajectory is being fine-tuned as more measurements are made, reducing the uncertainty surrounding its course. To learn how the asteroid 2024 YR4 risk reduction is being carried out, you can consult the information at the following link: the page on detecting dangerous asteroids.
The role of NASA and ESA
Space agencies such as the NASA and European Space Agency (ESA) played a key role in the re-evaluation of risk. Through the Near Earth Object Coordination CenterBoth entities have continued to closely monitor the asteroid to ensure it doesn't pose a future threat. Their strategies include identifying those requiring priority attention.
One of the key aspects in this process has been the use of the space telescope James Webb, which can detect infrared light and thus provide a clearer image of the asteroid's composition and movement. Thanks to this technology, new calculations have confirmed that the probability of collision with Earth is reduced to just 0.001%, an insignificant number in terms of real risk.
What would happen in case of impact?
Although the danger has been practically ruled out, the possibility of a collision with an asteroid of these characteristics is always a topic of scientific interest. With an estimated size of 40 to 90 meters, in case of impact, 2024 YR4 could generate an explosion equivalent to a large-scale nuclear detonation. These types of events are considered in studies of possible asteroid impacts.
However, experts explain that, If an impact occurred, the asteroid would most likely explode in the atmosphere before hitting the surface., as occurred in the Tunguska event in 1908. This phenomenon would significantly reduce the damage it could cause in an inhabited area. For a more in-depth look at how risk reduction is achieved in the event of an impact, see the article on the Tunguska event and existing theories.
Preventive measures against future threats
Tracking and controlling asteroids like 2024 YR4 demonstrates the importance of having protocols y mitigation strategies for such events. In this regard, the scientific community continues to explore various forms of planetary protection:
- Kinetic impact: Sending a spacecraft to collide with the asteroid and modify its trajectory. This was successfully tested in 2022 with the DART mission.
- Deflection by lasers: Heating the surface of the asteroid with powerful lasers to generate a change in its direction.
- Nuclear explosion in space: Although it is an extreme option, it is considered in case of imminent threats, with the aim of fragmenting the asteroid into smaller, less dangerous pieces.
Constant monitoring of these celestial bodies is key to the planetary security. Although the threat of 2024 YR4 has been almost completely ruled out, its study has served to improve the observation protocols and response to similar future events. This monitoring is essential for knowledge about asteroids and their behavior.
