After El Niño, his antagonist arrives: La niña, a natural phenomenon that cools the waters of the Pacific and alters the global climate differently. According to NOAA, there is a 66% chance that this weather pattern will develop in the fall, mainly between the months of September and November 2024. This cooling could result in a drop of more than 0,5ºC in the surface temperature of the Pacific Ocean near the equator, which favors the formation of hurricanes in the Atlantic.
La niña It is a phenomenon that, unlike El Niño, it's not necessarily as damaging as you might think, but what it causes is just as significant. In the Pacific, a colder and drier winter is anticipated. This is a serious problem for places like California, where rainfall has been scarce in recent years. On the other hand, increased hurricane activity is expected in the Atlantic, which could affect regions as far away as SpainIn addition, rainfall is expected to be much higher than normal in Asia, Australia, and even southern Africa.
The La Niña prediction
It should be noted that the La Niña prediction is not exact. However, it is known that it usually appears every two to seven years. Although it does not always follow El NiñoHistorical records indicate that the chances increase when the latter has been especially intense, as was the case in 2023. The changes that occur in the global climate due to La Niña are significant, affecting many regions of the world.
The appearance of La Niña can influence agricultural production, water availability, and the occurrence of natural disasters. For example, more humid conditions In regions such as Southeast Asia, flood risk may increase, while in the southwest of the United States and parts of South America, flooding may occur. severe droughtsTo better understand these droughts, you can review the consequences of the La Niña phenomenon in different areas.
The global and regional impact of La Niña
As we have mentioned, although La niña It originates in a specific area of the ocean, its effects are global. This can impact various areas economic, events y environmentalIt is essential to be prepared for any changes that may arise.
Effects in South America
- Colombia and Ecuador: These countries often experience torrential rains during La Niña, which can cause flooding and landslides, severely affecting local communities.
- Argentina and Brazil: On the contrary, the rest of South America may see an increase in droughts y high temperatures, as occurred during previous episodes. For more information on the impact in these areas, see the explanation about La Niña.
Effects in the United States
- Southeast US: the conditions of La niña They often induce droughts, which can affect agricultural production and water availability in this region.
- Northwest U.S.: The presence of La Niña tends to generate an increase in rainfall, which could result in problems of floods in previously affected areas.
When is La Niña expected to impact?
According to predictions, it is expected that La niña begin to take shape between September and November 2024. However, the intensity of this phenomenon can vary. NOAA has indicated that the probability of La Niña persisting through the 2024-2025 Northern Hemisphere winter is 74%.
The activity of the Hurricanes in the Atlantic tends to increase during periods of La niña, due to lower wind shear, which facilitates the formation of more intense storms. This year, the estimate is that we could see between four and seven Category 3 hurricanes or higher. Predictions on this matter are crucial to preparing affected communities.
Climate change and La Niña
The interactions between La niña and the climate change are complex. While La Niña may contribute to a temporary cooling, is not enough to mitigate long-term global warming. The presence of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere will continue to be the determining factor in rising global temperatures. It is crucial that climate models and satellite observations continue to improve to anticipate the effects of La Niña and El NiñoThis aspect is related to the consequence of the cooling of the Atlantic.
The proper management of natural resources and effective planning to address extreme weather events are essential in a world where climate change is a growing threat. Science must continue to advance to better understand these phenomena and their implications for food security, water supply, and public health.
Although the appearance of La niña Although it may seem like a localized phenomenon, its effects extend across the planet, affecting millions of people and ecosystems. Therefore, it is essential that both governments and communities be prepared and aware of what this phenomenon means for their environment.