Concern about the possible asteroid impact on Earth or its immediate surroundings has never ceased to be a topic of scientific and social interest. In recent years, the international community has stepped up its efforts to monitor and analyze celestial bodies that could pose a threat, such as asteroid 2024 YR4, which has made numerous headlines thanks to its close trajectory near our planet and the Moon.
The identification, tracking, and study of potentially hazardous asteroids has allowed space agencies to anticipate scenarios, minimize risks, and plan planetary defense strategies. Media and scientific attention has focused in recent months on the orbital behavior of 2024 YR4, a medium-sized rocky object whose trajectory has raised concerns about a possible future lunar impact.
Asteroid 2024 YR4: How and when might it hit?
2024 YR4 was first detected in late 2024 thanks to international collaboration in astronomical monitoring and, in particular, observations obtained by the James Webb Space Telescope. This rocky body, with an estimated diameter of between 40 and 90 meters (according to recent measurements), was initially classified as a potential risk to Earth. However, ongoing analysis of its orbit and new information gathered have ruled out a real threat to our planet, although they have raised concerns about a possible impact on the Moon predicted for December 22, 2032.
New calculations have raised the probability of a lunar collision to 4,3%. If the impact does occur, experts predict the formation of a crater between half a kilometer and two kilometers in size, visible from Earth but without significant risk to our satellite, whose surface already shows the marks of thousands of collisions throughout its history.
What effects would a lunar impact have on Earth?
Although Earth is out of direct danger, the scenario does pose certain environmental risks to satellites and space operations due to the ejection of debris generated by the potential impact. Recent studies estimate that the explosion on the lunar surface could launch up to 100 million tons of material into space. A tiny fraction of this debris—depending on the angle and exact location of the collision—could enter low-Earth orbit and temporarily increase satellites' exposure to a shower of particles that, within days, would multiply the usual risk of small impacts on these devices.
The main concern for the satellite community lies in the potential impact on the lifespan of spacecraft and systems in low-Earth orbit (LEO). However, most models agree that, while damage could occur, it would not be catastrophic for satellites or current space infrastructure. Furthermore, the Earth's atmosphere would be responsible for destroying the smallest fragments before they reached the surface.
Planetary defense: between surveillance and technology
The threat of asteroids has prompted the development of strategies, missions, and technologies aimed at planetary defense, coordinated by organizations such as NASA and ESA. Over the past decade, both organizations have collaborated and developed pioneering projects. These include the DART mission, which demonstrated the feasibility of deflecting a celestial body's trajectory through a controlled impact by a spacecraft, and the European Space Agency's upcoming Hera mission, which aims to analyze the effects of impacts in detail and refine response protocols.
These initiatives go hand in hand with new observation programs, such as the launch of infrared telescopes (for example, the NEOMIR project), which will allow the detection of objects traveling in the direction of the Sun that until now have escaped monitoring from Earth. Experts have highlighted the importance of having global early warning systems and international response protocols to minimize risks in the event of major events that could affect populated regions or critical infrastructure.
Scientific cooperation and research opportunities
Tracking asteroid 2024 YR4 not only represents a challenge for planetary defense, but also offers a valuable opportunity to deepen our understanding of collision processes and the evolution of the solar system. A controlled and predicted impact, such as one that could occur on the Moon, would allow the scientific community to observe the formation of a crater in real time and analyze the dispersal of debris. This data expands our understanding of asteroid composition, space dust dynamics, and potential threats to future manned missions, both in lunar orbit and on its surface.
With the advancement of space missions and the growing interest in lunar colonization, protecting the Moon from potential hazards is now a strategic issue for agencies around the world. Surveillance and contingency plans beyond Earth are essential to ensuring the sustainability of future operations and the safety of astronauts and equipment.
The analysis of 2024 YR4's trajectory and technical improvements in observation reflect how science and technology work together to anticipate threats and learn from each situation. The possibility of impact with the Moon, although low, demonstrates the importance of maintaining constant vigilance and improving the ability to deflect dangerous objects from space, ensuring greater protection for humanity and its resources.
