The Balearic Islands, an archipelago located east of the Iberian Peninsula, are extremely vulnerable to climate change . In the last four decades, the temperature in this region has increased by almost three degrees Celsius . While this figure may not seem alarming compared to global trends, it is considerable when considering the local context and its implications. To better understand the impact of climate change in other parts of the world, one can examine how Germany is experiencing its effects.
Due to this temperature increase, summer seems to be getting longer and longer , merging and overlapping with spring, which is also becoming warmer year after year. This seasonal shift not only affects weather conditions but also the ecosystems and the economy of the region, which relies heavily on tourism and agriculture . This phenomenon is one of the many effects of climate change explored in related articles, such as the effects of climate change in Spain . It is important to pay attention to how the climate in the Balearic Islands is forecast for 2038 , as it may have repercussions for the local economy.
A study published in the international scientific journal International Journal of Climatology , carried out by the head researcher of the Meteorology group of the Physics department of the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Romualdo Romero, together with collaborators such as Agustí Jansà, former director of AEMET in the Balearic Islands, highlights these notable changes related to climate change.
The explanation behind this phenomenon lies in the fact that the Mediterranean region is a transition zone between arid and temperate climates. The greenhouse effect has caused changes in atmospheric circulation , resulting in the northward expansion of the tropical anticyclone belt, which is primarily responsible for the region's summer conditions. This has led to a growing perception that summers are becoming longer and hotter. Furthermore, these are concepts that must be understood to grasp the magnitude of these problems.
As temperatures rise, rainfall also decreases, although this trend is not as drastic as the temperature increase. Nevertheless, the melting of the polar ice caps has contributed to a sea level rise of between 10 and 20 centimeters in the last century , and this figure is projected to increase by another 40 centimeters to one meter by the end of this century, according to Romero. To learn more about how temperature in different regions affects this phenomenon, you can consult the article on floods that will endanger millions of people , which may also influence the COP 22 climate summit.
If measures to control global warming are not implemented urgently, the temperature in the Balearic Islands could rise by up to 2°C by 2020 and reach up to 6°C by 2100. The magnitude of this increase is similar to that predicted in other places, such as cities that could disappear due to global warming.
The Balearic Islands Coastal Observation System (SOCIB) recorded, as of July 18, 2022, that the average surface temperature of the Balearic Sea was 27,58 degrees Celsius , which is 2,98 degrees above the average of the last 40 years. Mélanie Juza, a researcher at SOCIB, stated that by July 27, this figure is expected to reach an average of 29,03 degrees Celsius , implying an anomaly of almost four degrees. It is crucial to raise awareness about the increase in car rentals in the region, which also impacts the environment.
According to Juza, these extreme temperatures are having significant effects on the marine ecosystem. While a single heatwave may not be devastating, frequent occurrences of thermal anomalies have a negative impact on the marine ecosystem. The highest average temperature recorded for the Balearic Sea by SOCIB was 29,1 degrees Celsius on August 10, 2003, with local values exceeding 30 degrees Celsius recorded by buoys and monitoring sensors.
Marine Heat Waves
In recent years, the concept of a heat wave has also been extended to the marine environment, with marine heat waves referring to those that occur when ocean temperatures exceed normal levels for at least five consecutive days. Although the study of this marine phenomenon is relatively recent, there is already sufficient data to establish trends in its subregional behavior, as well as to understand its effects on ocean circulation and climate. For more information on related phenomena, you can read about atmospheric rivers , which are also related to climate and climate change.
A recent study by SOCIB, with Mélanie Juza as principal investigator, has confirmed an upward trend in marine heatwaves in terms of intensity , duration , and frequency across several subregions of the Mediterranean. Average linear trend estimates obtained from different subregions over the period 1982–2020 have shown that:
- The average intensity of marine heat has increased between 0,24 and 0,52 degrees.
- The maximum intensity has increased between 1,03 and 2,13 degrees.
- The average duration of marine heatwaves has increased between 5 and 12 days.
- The frequency of days with marine heat waves has increased between 4 and 7 events.
- The total number of heat wave days has increased between 55 and 126 days.
Impact of Climate Change in the Balearic Islands
The surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea is projected to rise between 1,2 and 3,6 degrees Celsius by the end of the century. This range refers to the average temperature, not the peak temperatures reached on certain summer days, which can be considerably higher. For example, 2024 was recorded as the third warmest year on record for sea surface temperature, with an annual average of 20,2 degrees Celsius and a record high of 31,87 degrees Celsius reached at the Dragonera buoy on August 12th of that year. This increase is also linked to the dangers of global warming.
Since 1982, sea surface temperatures have increased by 0,4 degrees Celsius per decade in the Balearic Islands, and in 2024 a record high was registered for the average annual temperature of the Mediterranean, exceeding the historical average since 1982 by 1,55 degrees Celsius. SOCIB's digital tools have monitored extreme changes in the Mediterranean, including unprecedented temperatures and a rise in sea level. For more information on this topic, see the section on the drought affecting many regions.
The winter of 2024 was the warmest ever recorded in the western Mediterranean basin, and both winter (17,7 degrees Celsius), spring (21,4 degrees Celsius), and summer (27,9 degrees Celsius) in the eastern basin reached record temperatures. According to SOCIB, these extreme temperatures are linked to record numbers of marine heatwave days, reaching 205 days in the western basin and 288 days in the eastern basin. These changes are also fueling debates about how to combat climate change.
The director of ICTS Socib, Joaquín Tintoré, emphasized that digital tools are vital for understanding the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean and its consequences for ecosystems and coastal communities. These tools allow for the detection of extreme events and the analysis of long-term trends in salinity and sea level, which has seen an average increase of 3,3 centimeters per decade since 1993.
Future Projections and Threatened Ecosystems
Experts warn that if sea temperatures continue to rise at this rate, the Balearic Islands' only native seagrass, Posidonia oceanica , could disappear in 100 to 150 years. At temperatures above 28°C or 29°C , this plant ceases to function, which could have devastating effects on the region's marine biodiversity. In a scenario where Posidonia disappears, the natural protection of the coasts is severely compromised, increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, as can also be observed.
Furthermore, the tropicalization of the Mediterranean is being observed, with native and endemic species responding negatively to rising temperatures, resulting in mass mortalities after heat waves. The consequences for marine biodiversity are severe, affecting fishing and other economic activities that depend on a healthy marine ecosystem, in a context where initiatives have been undertaken to combat climate change.
Changes in sea surface temperature and sea level have not only ecological implications, but also economic and social ones. Beaches and tourist areas are at risk, which could alter how tourists interact with the environment. Experts predict that, if current trends continue, tourists may not need to leave their hotels to reach the beach , as the water and sand could be right in the lobby due to rising sea levels. To better understand how these trends affect coastal communities, you can review how Australian green sea turtles are endangered.
Extreme weather events, such as flooding and coastal erosion, will also become a recurring problem, with coastal erosion and the flooding of previously safe areas resulting in significant economic losses and damage to infrastructure. To address these challenges, investment in green infrastructure is essential to help mitigate the impact of climate change.
The Government of the Balearic Islands and the Council of Mallorca have committed to taking action to address the climate crisis, including adopting initiatives resulting from the Mallorca Citizens' Climate Assembly. These measures are crucial for preserving both the environment and the local economy, which depends heavily on the climate and the health of its ecosystems.
The situation in the Balearic Islands is a clear reflection of the challenges the world faces due to climate change. The combination of rising temperatures , changing precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss are warning signs that indicate it is crucial to act now to mitigate these effects and protect the future of the archipelago and its inhabitants.
