The Balearic Islands, an archipelago located east of the Iberian Peninsula, are extremely vulnerable to climate changeIn the last four decades, the temperature in this region has increased by almost three degrees Celsius. Although this figure may not seem alarming compared to global trends, it is considerable when considering the local context and its implications. To better understand the impact of climate change in other parts of the world, you can review how Germany experiences the effects of climate change.
Due to this increase in temperature, Summer seems to be getting longer and longer, merging and overlapping with spring, which also becomes warmer over the years. This seasonal change not only affects the weather conditions, but also the ecosystems and the economy of the region, which depends heavily on tourism and farmingThis phenomenon is one of the many effects of climate change explored in related articles, such as the effects of climate change in SpainIt is important to pay attention to how the forecast is made. the climate in the Balearic Islands in 2038, as it may have repercussions on the local economy.
Un study published in the international scientific journal International Journal of Climatology, carried out by the chief researcher of the Meteorology group of the Physics Department of the University of the Balearic Islands (UIB), Romualdo Romero, together with collaborators such as Agustí Jansà, former director of the AEMET in the Balearic Islands, highlights these notable changes related to the climate change.
The explanation behind this phenomenon lies in the fact that the Mediterranean region is a transition zone between arid and temperate climates. The greenhouse effect has caused changes in atmospheric circulation, resulting in the northward expansion of the tropical anticyclone belt, which is primarily responsible for summer conditions in the region. This has led to a growing perception that summers are getting longer and warmer. Furthermore, these are concepts that must be understood to grasp the magnitude of these problems.
As temperatures rise, there is also a decrease in precipitation, although this trend is not as dramatic as the increase in temperature. However, the melting of the poles has contributed to The sea level has risen between 10 and 20 centimeters in the last century, and this figure is expected to increase by another 40 centimeters to a meter by the end of this century, according to Romero. To learn more about how temperature in different regions affects this phenomenon, see floods that will endanger millions of people, which can also influence the COP 22 climate summit.
If measures to control global warming are not implemented urgently, the temperature in the Balearic Islands could rise to 2ºC by 2020 and reach up to 6ºC by 2100The magnitude of this increase is similar to that expected in other places, such as cities that could disappear due to global warming.
El Coastal Observation System of the Balearic Islands (SOCIB) has recorded, as recent data as of July 18, 2022, that the average temperature of the surface of the Balearic Sea was 27,58 degrees, which represents 2,98 degrees above the average of the last 40 years. Mélanie Juza, researcher at SOCIB, said that by July 27, this figure is expected to reach an average of 29,03 degrees, which implies an anomaly of almost four degrees. It is essential to report on the increase in car rentals in the region, which also impacts the environment.
According to Juza, these extreme values are having significant effects on the marine ecosystem. thermal anomalies, although a single heat wave may not be devastating, if they occur frequently, they have a negative impact on the marine ecosystem. The highest average temperature recorded for the Balearic Sea by SOCIB was 29,1 degrees on August 10, 2003, with local values exceeding 30 degrees in buoys and monitoring sensors.
Marine Heat Waves
In recent years, the concept of heat wave has also been extended to the marine environment, referring to marine heat waves These are those that occur when ocean temperatures exceed normal levels for at least five consecutive days. Although the study of this marine phenomenon is relatively recent, there is already sufficient data to establish trends in its subregional behavior, as well as to understand its effects on ocean circulation and climate. For more information on related phenomena, you can read about atmospheric rivers, which are also related to the climate and the climate change.
A recent study by SOCIB, with Mélanie Juza as principal investigator, has confirmed that there is an upward trend in marine heat waves in terms of intensity, duration y frequency in several Mediterranean subregions. Average linear trend estimates obtained from different subregions from 1982 to 2020 have shown that:
- The average intensity of marine heat has increased between 0,24 and 0,52 degrees.
- The maximum intensity has increased between 1,03 and 2,13 degrees.
- The average duration of marine heatwaves has increased between 5 and 12 days.
- The frequency of days with marine heat waves has increased between 4 and 7 events.
- The total number of heat wave days has increased between 55 and 126 days.
Impact of Climate Change in the Balearic Islands
The surface temperature of the Mediterranean Sea will experience an increase of between 1,2 and 3,6 degrees by the end of the century. This range refers to the average temperature and not to the peaks reached on certain summer days, which can be considerably higher. For example, 2024 was recorded as the third warmest year on record for sea water temperatures, with an annual average of 20,2 degrees Celsius, and a record reached of 31,87 degrees at the Dragonera buoy on August 12 last year. This increase is also related to the dangers of global warming.
Since 1982, sea surface temperatures have increased 0,4 degrees per decade in the Balearic Islands, and in 2024 a record was recorded in the average annual temperature of the Mediterranean, exceeding 1,55 degrees the historical average since 1982. SOCIB's digital tools have monitored extreme changes in the Mediterranean, including unprecedented temperatures and rising sea levels. For more in-depth information on the topic, see the drought that affects many regions.
The winter of 2024 was the warmest ever recorded in the western Mediterranean basin, with record temperatures in both winter (17,7 degrees), spring (21,4 degrees), and summer (27,9 degrees) in the eastern basin. According to SOCIB, these extreme temperatures are linked to record days of marine heatwaves, reaching 205 days in the western basin and 288 days in the east. These changes are also generating debates about how to combat climate change.
The director of ICTS Socib, Joaquín Tintoré, emphasized that digital tools are vital to understanding the impact of climate change in the Mediterranean and its consequences for ecosystems and coastal communities. These tools allow for the detection of extreme events and analyze long-term trends in salinity and sea level, which has followed an average increase of 3,3 centimeters per decade 1993 since.
Future Projections and Threatened Ecosystems
Experts warn that if sea temperatures continue to rise at this rate, the only native marine plant in the Balearic Islands, the Posidonia, could disappear in about 100 or 150 years. From temperatures above 28ºC or 29ºC, this plant stops working, which could have devastating effects on the region's marine biodiversity. In a scenario where posidonia disappears, natural protection of the coasts is seriously compromised, increasing vulnerability to extreme weather events, as can also be observed.
Furthermore, the tropicalization The Mediterranean is experiencing a situation where native and endemic species respond negatively to rising temperatures, resulting in mass mortality after heat waves. The consequences for marine biodiversity are severe, affecting fishing and other economic activities that depend on a healthy marine ecosystem, in a context where measures have been taken to combat climate change. initiatives to combat climate change.
Changes in sea surface temperature and sea level not only have ecological implications, but also economic and social ones. Beaches and tourist areas are at risk, which could alter the way tourists interact with the environment. Experts predict that if current trends continue, Tourists may not need to leave their hotels to get to the beach, as water and sand could be in the lobby due to rising sea levels. To better understand how these trends affect coastal communities, you can review how Australian green turtles are in danger.
Extreme events, such as flooding and coastal erosion, will also become a recurring problem, with coastal erosion and the inundation of previously safe areas resulting in significant economic losses and damage to infrastructure. To address these challenges, investment in green infrastructures that help mitigate the impact of climate change.
From the Government of the Balearic Islands and the Consell de Mallorca, have committed to taking action to address this climate crisis, including the adoption of initiatives resulting from the Citizens' Climate Assembly of Mallorca. The importance of these measures is crucial to preserving both the environment and the local economy, which depends largely on the climate and the health of their ecosystems.
The situation in the Balearic Islands is a clear reflection of the challenges the world faces due to climate change. The combination of rising temperatures, changing precipitation patterns, rising sea levels, and biodiversity loss are warning signs that it is essential to act now to mitigate these effects and protect the future of the archipelago and its inhabitants.
