With Holy Week 2025 just around the corner, interest in knowing what the weather will bring during these dates begins to grow among both travelers and organizers of religious celebrations and outdoor events. Every year, spring break becomes a kind of climate lottery, and although this edition falls in the middle of April—which could suggest mild temperatures—the initial weather forecasts call for caution. For more information on the weather, you can check out our weather map.
Meteorologists are already beginning to release their first estimates., and what lies ahead does not seem entirely encouraging for those dreaming of sunny days. The atmosphere that will develop over the Iberian Peninsula at that time points to a volatile trend, strongly influenced by global climate factors that promote the occurrence of storms and intermittent rain. If you want to learn more about the impact of storms, we recommend reading about Storm Nuria.
A start to April marked by atmospheric instability
The first days of April are already showing symptoms of seasonal variability.. According to experts from the Meteored portal, prediction models are beginning to outline a scenario dominated by the presence of cold air masses at high levels and an Atlantic ridge that would favor the descent of active frontal systems over our country. This pattern favors the continuous movement of low pressure systems, which could translate into a persistent trickle of rain across the country. To better understand how these situations form, you can read about the difference between an anticyclone and a depression.
These conditions are part of what meteorologists describe as an energetic atmosphere.With higher temperatures both on the surface and at altitude - in the air, on land and at sea - the clouds get an extra boost This facilitates the formation of more frequent and intense rainfall than usual. This reality is part of a context in which extreme events seem to be gaining ground year after year.
The March we just left behind has been a clear example of this., with numerous fronts crossing the country one after another, leaving considerable accumulations of water and even causing some minor incidents in various communities. The State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) has confirmed that averages up to 2,5 times higher than normal in several areas, which sets a precedent for what we might expect in the immediate future. For more information on these situations, see AEMET warnings.
Predictions for the central days of Holy Week
Facing the central days of Holy Week —which this year falls between approximately April 14 and 20—, the most recent models point to the possible consolidation of this wet trend. Current simulations indicate that Rain chances will be slightly above average during that period, especially in the northern half and inland areas of the Peninsula, as well as in both archipelagos.
However, Meteored insists on the caution when interpreting these forecasts, as we are still in a time frame within which weather patterns can change significantly. Still, experts agree that a active atmosphere, in which fronts will continue to arrive one after the other, leading to situations of persistent instability over several days. This is particularly relevant in the context of the nimbostratus clouds, which can bring continuous rain.
The possibility of alternating periods of rain and periods of respite is also being considered., which would result in a Holy Week of contrasts: sunny mornings turning into rainy afternoons, or even entire days of cloudy skies without any notable precipitation. This behavior depends largely on the exact positioning of the low pressure centers that circulate close to the peninsula.
The northwestern communities, such as Galicia, Asturias and Castile and León, are usually the first to be hit by Atlantic fronts, and this time does not seem to be an exception. Rain is also expected in parts of the central Iberian Peninsula and the Iberian system, and even sporadic showers are expected in regions of the southeast and the Mediterranean coast, where a milder climate on these dates. For more details on the impact of storms, you can read about Storm Laurence.
As for the islands, Both the Balearic and Canary Islands could experience a wetter April than usual., although in a more localized and dispersed manner. In the case of the Canary Islands, influenced by subtropical air masses, precipitation is not expected to be as persistent, although the possibility of cloudiness and isolated episodes of rain on some islands.
The intensity of the rains is another unknown.Although widespread severe weather is not expected, experts do not rule out locally intense rainfall, especially during the passage of the most active fronts. In this regard, the occurrence of storm episodes with electrical equipment in certain areas during the afternoons. To understand more about these phenomena, you can read about cumulonimbus clouds.
Low reliability but clear trend: changeable and wet weather
Although medium and long-term weather forecasts have a considerable margin of error, meteorologists agree that the prevailing signs point to a very dynamic weather scenario. To this we must add a global context that favors instability due to factors such as the warming of ocean waters and the greatest energy available in the atmosphere. If you want to learn more about how climate change is affecting these phenomena, visit our article on the drastic change in weather in Spain.
Therefore, the most prudent thing is to prepare for a Holy Week marked by continuous changes in the sky., where rain can appear almost without warning. The general recommendation is to keep your attention focused on the official bulletins, such as those from AEMET, and check for frequent updates, especially if you have outdoor plans.
This doesn't mean that the holidays are going to be completely rainy, but it does mean that The chances of several days being marked by precipitation are highSo it's a good idea to pack a raincoat or umbrella, along with your sunglasses. Spring is such a capricious place.
Everything indicates that Easter 2025 will be marked by changeable weather, with a high probability of rain and an active atmosphere that will bring with it successive storms.The forecasts, although still subject to change, reflect a continuation of the wet weather pattern that was already strongly felt in March. Staying informed and being flexible with your plans will be key to enjoying this holiday season, without letting a few showers dampen your spirits too much.
