During the last years, the possible relationship between oil extraction and the occurrence of earthquakes has been the subject of growing interest and debate in the scientific community. This issue has taken on particular prominence since the region of Surrey, in southern England, experienced a unusual series of tremors Between 2018 and 2019, in a historically seismically calm area, more than 100 earthquakes sparked concern among residents and the interest of experts.
The onset of cracks and minor damage to homes It was enough for many residents to begin searching for explanations. Historical data hadn't shown any significant seismic activity in the region for decades, prompting an exhaustive investigation to clarify the causes behind these unexpected events.
Researchers seek links between earthquakes and oil extraction
The phenomenon caught the attention of Dr. Matthew Fox, a geophysicist at the University College London. His team, in collaboration with other institutions, put the temporal relationship between the crude oil extraction at the Horse Hill well and the series of seismic movements recorded in Surrey and surrounding areas.
The study method consisted of analyzing data obtained from the reservoir's pumping records and comparing these with the exact times of each tremor. To do this, the researchers used more than a million simulations, seeking to limit any possible margin of error. The results revealed a strong temporal coincidence between periods of extractive activity and the majority of the earthquakes detected.
Dr. Fox explained in the resulting publication that while the data suggest a possible link between both activities, it cannot be completely ruled out that it is simply a coincidence. That is, the correlation is clear, but direct causality has yet to be determined with the precision required by science.
How oil extraction alters the geological balance
Research has provided arguments that shed light on how the removal of underground fluids It affects the rock formations in which oil wells are located. The phenomenon occurs due to the decrease in pore pressure in the rocks as oil is removed, which can trigger stresses and microfractures capable of releasing energy in the form of earthquakes.
The ability of these alterations to spread depends largely on the permeability and nature of geological layersIn some rocks, the response can be observed within hours, while in others, the effects may take months or even years to manifest. This uncertainty complicates the ability to predict the medium- and long-term impact of oil development on regional seismicity.
Experts from the British Geological Survey stress the importance of developing seismic monitoring systems in extraction areas, in order to collect data that will allow us to better understand these mechanisms and anticipate possible risks.
Companies, controversy and institutional response
The possible link between oil extraction and earthquakes has not only generated scientific controversy, but also a important social and political debateThe company responsible for Horse Hill, UK Oil & Gas, has defended the safety of its operations, arguing that "the tremors were due to a deep fault and not to mining activity."
Faced with a lack of conclusive evidence and public pressure, local authorities in Surrey decided revoke permits for future drilling in October 2024, thus prioritizing the protection of the area in the face of the resulting uncertainty. At the same time, other similar projects in nearby regions face legal obstacles and requirements for more exhaustive environmental and geological studies before their possible approval.
This case has motivated a growing demand from society and the research community to implement seismic control and monitoring protocols prior to and after extractive activity, as well as a rigorous assessment of the potential associated risks.
The Surrey example has prompted a rethink on how to manage industrial activities in sensitive environments and the importance of having objective data, constant monitoring and transparency to be able to make informed decisions that guarantee the safety of people and the environment.
