Next summer in Spain will see temperatures that will start to rise earlier than usual.The latest analyses by the State Meteorological Agency (AEMET) and various specialized portals indicate that, facing the summer months, a combination of high pressure and the presence of atmospheric ridges will mark the dominant pattern, ensuring warm environments and stable conditions in most of the country. This early rise in mercury will cause many areas to reach or exceed 30°C as early as late spring., anticipating the typical summer atmosphere that characterizes much of the Peninsula and the archipelagos.
According to climate predictions, the summer of 2025 is shaping up to be slightly warmer than average of recent decades, although not reaching the extreme levels recorded in recent years. No historic records or prolonged heat waves are expected in most regions, but it is worth remembering that, in our country, the "normal" summer already involves days of intense heat, mainly in the interior and south of the peninsula. This summer will be one of the hottest in Spain..
A summer that starts strong: intense heat and tropical nights
Virtually throughout the country, Thermometers will begin a general rise since the end of May. Southern regions (such as Andalusia, Extremadura, and Murcia), as well as large inland areas (Castilla-La Mancha, Madrid, and Castilla y León), are expected to reach or exceed 34-35°C during the day. Especially the Guadalquivir Valley, which could reach 38-40°C At specific peaks, it is emerging as one of the hottest areas.
The nights will not offer much respite either: On the Mediterranean coast and inland valleys, minimum temperatures may not drop below 20°C., giving rise to the well-known "tropical nights" which are already common in these areas. This situation, although widespread, is especially expected in provinces such as Malaga, Almeria or Seville, where the thermal sensation will remain high even in the early hours of the morning.
Northern cities and the Cantabrian coast, such as Bilbao and Barcelona, will enjoy somewhat milder daytime temperatures (averaging around 21 to 25°C during July), although any additional anomalies could significantly impact the daily comfort of their residents.
Extreme summer or normal?
Weather models show Spain tinted with orange and neutral colors on climate mapsThis indicates a positive thermal deviation, but much milder than that seen in previous summers, when maps predicted genuine peaks of extraordinary heat. The anomalies are expected to be milder In most regions, although both the northern peninsula and the archipelagos could record temperatures significantly above average.
In the southwest of the Iberian Peninsula (for example, Huelva, Seville, and Cádiz, as well as southern Extremadura), the forecast values are within the statistically normal range for these areas, with no significant unforeseen events. The heat will be intense, but extreme and continuous situations like those experienced in 2022 or 2023 are not expected..
Rain, reservoirs and possible episodes of instability
In the precipitation section, everything points to a dry summer within the usual pattern In Spain, rainfall is scarce and localized mainly in the far north, with occasional episodes of instability. Cities like Madrid receive around 10 mm of rain in July and August, while Seville barely exceeds 5 mm during those months.
Despite this, thanks to the rains recorded in spring, the national reservoirs are around 77% of its capacity, allowing us to start the summer with a good outlook from a water perspective and without major risks of shortages in the short term.
La atmosphere will be dominated mainly by stability associated with the Azores High, although there could be some surprises in the form of a DANA—especially in the eastern part of the peninsula—which would result in occasional showers, localized thunderstorms, or small temporary drops in temperature. These events, however, will not significantly alter the general trend of a hot, dry summer.
With only a few days left until the official start of the climatological summer, the combination of projections and historical records invites us to prepare for months in which heat will be the protagonist, although with a lower risk of collapse due to persistent heat waves. For now, the forecast remains uncertain as to whether any records will be broken, but it does seem clear that the feeling of summer will soon be felt across almost the entire country.