Meteorological surveillance is intensified around the country: the Conagua and the SMN follow closely three areas with potential for cyclone development in the waters of the Pacific and the Atlantic, which, if organized, would receive the names Sonia, Melissa and Nestor.
In a season that is still active—which officially ends in November—there remains a notable cyclonic activityThe most recent reports indicate 17 systems in the Pacific and 12 in the Atlantic, within a predicted scenario of between 29 and 37 cyclones for the entire period.
Where are they and what are their chances?
Pacific (possibly Sonia). An low pressure zone It is located about 350 kilometers south-southwest of Puerto Ángel, Oaxaca. Submit a 50% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone in 48 hours (and the same probability in seven days), with slow movement towards the west-northwest.
Atlantic (possible Melissa). It is a tropical wave located approximately at 5,225 km east of the coast of Quintana Roo, with 30% chance development in seven days. It moves west at a speed of between 24 and 32 km / h.
Atlantic (possibly Nestor). Another low pressure zone It is located in front of the east coast of Canada, about 2,875 km northeast of Quintana Roo. Maintains a 10% chance of cyclonic development, both at 48 hours and seven days.
None of these systems pose, for now, an immediate direct threat to the national territory, but their evolution requires close surveillance by rainfall potential, waves and associated winds.
When they could form and what effects they would leave
In the Pacific, Sonia It is the system with the greatest probability of evolving in the short term: if the convective organization persists, it could reach the category of tropical storm in the coming days, with the effects of rain and wind in coastal areas of southern Mexico.
In the Atlantic, Melissa is moving forward with a lower probability of intensification in the short term, but its westward trajectory forces a gradual follow-up, especially if the shear environment and sea temperature improve.
For its part, Nestor maintains a low probability of development and, although its direct impact on Mexico is unlikely, its presence may modulate the wave and humidity pattern on a regional scale.
Even without touching land, any of these systems can generate heavy rains, gusts of wind and swells in coastal and mountainous areas, as well as landslides and flash floods in susceptible channels.
How these systems are formed
Tropical cyclones are born when several ingredients coincide: sea temperature above 26 °C, an area of low pressure, high humidity and a organized circulation capable of concentrating cloudiness and winds around a center.
- Tropical disturbance: instability associated with low pressure with incipient convection.
- Tropical depression: the system organizes and sustains winds of up to 62 km/h.
- Tropical storm: winds reach 63–118 km/h and the system is given an official name.
- Hurricane: exceeds 119 km/h and is classified on the Saffir-Simpson scale.
In the northern hemisphere, the winds turn counterclockwise. The intensity depends on ocean heat and atmospheric patterns at altitude, factors that this year have favored more activity frequent and intense. The increase of ocean heat is key to that evolution.
Recommendations and preparation
The authorities insist on prioritizing the prevention: stay informed through official channels of the SMN and Conagua, and attend to the issues without delay Civil Protection notices.
- Identify temporary shelters and evacuation routes in your municipality.
- Prepare a basic kit: water, non-perishable food, a flashlight, and a radio with batteries.
- Avoid crossing watercourses and flood zones during heavy rains.
- Do not handle downed cables or unstable structures; report hazards to the authorities.
With three systems under observation —Sonia in the Pacific and Melissa and Nestor in the Atlantic— the country faces days of continuous monitoring: moderate to low probabilities, but sufficient to activate monitoring and preparation protocols, waiting for the atmosphere to define whether these potential cyclones they take the final leap.
