Humanity faces a race against time to keep the global temperature rise below 1,5°C above pre-industrial levels, a key threshold for avoiding severe climate impacts. Several recent scientific reports warn that, maintaining the current rate of emissions, There would only be about three years left to avoid exceeding that limitThe research community points out that, once this is surpassed, the chances of going back with current technological tools would be very small.
The latest updates to the 'Global Climate Change Indicators', prepared by more than 60 scientists from 17 countries, provide very precise figures: the remaining carbon budget to avoid exceeding 1,5 ºC is around 130 gigatons of CO2. At the current rate of emissions, this figure is equivalent to just over three years, which draws a critical time horizon and highlights the urgency of acting decisively.
A historic threshold about to be reached
The Paris Agreement, signed in 2015, set the goal that The average global temperature does not exceed 2ºC and attempts are made to limit it to 1,5ºC. However, according to data updated until 2024, the temperature is already 1,52 ºC above the pre-industrial level, of which 1,36 ºC is directly due to human activity, mainly due to burning of fossil fuels and deforestationThis means that 89% of the observed warming is human-caused, something experts consider irrefutable.
Scientists stress that recording 1,5°C in a single year does not yet constitute a breach of the Paris Agreement - for this to happen, the threshold would need to be maintained for several decades - but The current trend indicates that this level will be steadily exceeded before 2028 if emissions are not curbed.. Over the last decade, the average temperature increase has been 1,24 ºC, and The rate of global warming is at an additional 0,27°C per decade.
The carbon budget has been drastically reducedIn 2020, there were around 500 gigatons of CO2 remaining, a figure that has dropped to 200 by 2024, and 130 according to the most recent estimates. Once this threshold is exceeded, warming will continue due to the inertia of the climate system and the gases already accumulated.
Visible consequences and growing imbalances
The implications of global warming are already being felt in more frequent and intense extreme weather events: heat waves, prolonged droughts, torrential rains and floods, along with a worrying Rising sea levelsBetween 2019 and 2024, the global average sea level rose by about 26 millimeters, double the average recorded since the beginning of the XNUMXth century. To better understand the factors contributing to rising temperatures, we recommend reading about solar radiation and the greenhouse effect.
Furthermore, the Concentrations of greenhouse gases such as carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide continue to rise Since 2019, the planet's energy imbalance has intensified. Excess heat accumulates primarily in the oceans—which already store 91% of this excess—accelerating glacial melting, rising sea levels, and disrupting marine and coastal ecosystems.
Experts such as Piers Forster, director of the Priestley Centre for Climate Futures, warn that “the rate of warming and the current level of emissions are leading us to an increasingly dangerous point”, with impacts on a global scale. Even a small additional increase in temperature can translate into more frequent and devastating extreme events.
The report also warns about the role of aerosols and other short-lived greenhouse gases, such as methane, which could have some compensatory effect in the short term, but whose reduction cannot replace the need to limit CO2.
Is there still room for action to reverse the situation?
According to climatologist Valérie Masson-Delmotte and other international experts, The window of opportunity to limit global warming to 1,5°C is closing rapidly.. While the future is not yet written and everything depends on short-term decisions, the scientific consensus is clear: even if CO2 emissions neutrality were achieved and carbon capture or reduction technologies were adopted, There are no mature or guaranteed solutions to reverse warming once this threshold is exceeded..
The magnitude and speed of current emissions make current climate policy insufficient. more ambitious actions, both in reducing emissions and in adapting to their effectsProjections even suggest that, without drastic changes, temperatures could exceed 2°C by 2050 and even 3°C by the end of the century, with serious consequences for ecosystems, food security, water availability, and the stability of human societies.
The study highlights that the Natural systems and human communities are increasingly exposed and vulnerableFor every tenth of a degree of temperature increase, the frequency and intensity of extreme rainfall, melting events, and adverse weather events increase. However, there are also signs of hope: some regions have managed to stabilize or reduce their emissions, and renewable energy technologies continue to advance.
Ensuring the future of the climate depends on decarbonization of the economy, protection of forests and the development of early warning and adaptation systems, especially in the most vulnerable areas of the planet. Although the challenge is immense, science points the way, and the room for action, although small, still exists.
The consensus of the scientific community is that The window for action to avoid the worst consequences of global warming is very narrowThe next three years will be crucial in setting the course for the climate for generations to come. Curbing emissions, accelerating the energy transition, and adapting societies are urgent tasks to keep temperature rises under control and preserve the planet's balance.
