Meteorological monitoring is concentrated on one low pressure zone in the Mexican Pacific which, if its organization continues, will be named Mario. The latest reports from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and With water They point to a significant increase in the probability of development in the short term.
In this phase, the system moves parallel to the coast and could begin to leave rain, wind and high waves between the south and west of the country in an interval that covers the days 12 to 16 September, with possible changes depending on the evolution of its structure and speed.
Current location and expected evolution
According to the latest information, the disturbance is located off the coasts of Oaxaca and Guerrero, with references such as 145 km southwest of Lagunas de Chacahua and about 255 km southeast of Acapulco, advancing with trajectory west-northwest and slow movement. This zone of instability is associated with the tropical wave 31, which has favored its organization.
The SMN has increased the probabilities to 90% for development in 48 hours, a scenario in which a depression could form first and, if the winds strengthen, a tropical storm named MarioAlthough the pattern suggests it will remain close to the coast, the trajectory may vary due to sea temperature and its interaction with other systems.
States under surveillance and possible impacts
The first cloud bands associated with the system already favor the convection over the southern Pacific coastWith the expected evolution, it is contemplated heavy to intense rainfall, gusts of wind and significant waves, especially near the coast.
Areas most likely to be directly affected in the short term:
- Oaxaca and Guerrero: Heavy rains, gusts of 50 to 70 km/h on the coastal strip and waves of 2 to 3 meters, with risk of waterspouts.
- Chiapas (west): heavy rain and showers with electrical activity.
Possible follow-on impacts if the system tracks west-northwest and becomes more organized:
- Jalisco, Colima and Michoacán: Increased rainfall, wind and waves from the second half of the week.
- Baja California Sur, Nayarit and Sinaloa: : likely indirect effects in the form of cloud bands and swell if the center remains offshore.
Timeline: Warnings and Probabilities
Between September 9 and 11, the sequence of warnings has gone from a 30% chance in 48 hours and 80% chance in 7 days, at high levels in the short term: first 80% and, in the last part, 90% in 48 hours. This trend reflects greater organization of the system over warm waters of the eastern Pacific.
In that same period, the low pressure has moved from the southern Chiapas and Oaxaca (references such as 400 km south-southwest of Boca de Pijijiapan, 410 km south of Salina Cruz and 280 km south-southeast of the mouth of the Suchiate) to positions close to Puerto Ángel, Chacahua Lagoons and the surrounding area of Acapulco, always with movement.
Civil Protection Recommendations
Authorities insist that the prevention reduces risksIt's a good idea to prepare a family plan and follow official channels such as the National Meteorological Service (SMN), Conagua, and Civil Protection, especially if you live near the coast or in flood-prone areas.
- Locates temporary shelters and evacuation routes.
- Safeguard important documentation and prepare an emergency backpack with a flashlight, water, and medication.
- Avoid crossing riverbeds during rain and stay away from unstable slopes.
- Extreme caution on coasts: surf 2 to 3 meters and gusts can generate dangerous conditions for smaller navigation.
- Keep your phone charged and alert official notices; don't spread rumors.
If gusts and waves increase, they could be applied Preventive closures in ports and beaches; follow local guidelines and avoid exposure to seawalls or jetties during the passage of convective waves.
Active season and how a cyclone is organized
The eastern Pacific basin is experiencing a active season: have been counted 12 sets to date and the SMN plans to close with 16 to 20 cyclones before November 30th. Mario would be the thirteenth name from the list if the system reaches storm stage and you can check Who decides the names of hurricanes?.
A tropical cyclone progresses through four phases: disturbance, depression, storm (when it acquires a name) and hurricane if the sustained winds exceed 119 km/h, then being classified in the Saffir-Simpson scaleIn parallel, meteorologists are monitoring another possible system which could emerge around the third week of September.
With the upward probabilities and displacement parallel to the coastPotential hurricane Mario could bring episodes of heavy rain, wind, and swells from Oaxaca and Guerrero westward. The key will be to monitor the SMN and Conagua forecasts to adjust precautionary measures in Jalisco, Colima, Michoacán, and, if the system persists offshore, Baja California Sur and the northwest.