According to official notices, the system maintains sustained winds of 65 to 75 km/h, gusts reaching between 85 and 95 km/h and advancing at a speed of the order of 17 to 19 km / h), while its cloud bands are already generating significant rainfall in the South Pacific area.
Location and current status of Narda
Following its formation, the SMN placed the center of the cyclone on Sunday afternoon at 390 km south-southeast of Zihuatanejo (Guerrero) and 440 km southeast of Lázaro Cárdenas (Michoacán). Hours later, during the early morning, the signs placed him at 255 km south of Zihuatanejo and 290 km south-southeast of Lázaro Cárdenas, and at around 06:00 local time it was reported 230 km south of Zihuatanejo. During that same period, another operational reference brought it closer to 185 km southwest of Acapulco, consistent with its advance parallel to the coast.
The traffic moves predominantly towards the west-northwest/northwest, remaining offshore and in line with the typical cyclone pattern in the eastern Pacific. This behavior, for now, limits a direct impact on land, although the proximity to the coast increases the effects of rain, wind and waves.
In intensity, Narda retains a tropical storm structure with occasional gusts of 85 to 95 km/h and a more extensive wind field in its eastern semicircle. The atmospheric environment favors deep convection over the southern quadrant of the system, fueling persistent cloud bands.
Rain, winds and waves on the Pacific coast
The cyclone bands are leaving heavy rains (75 to 150 mm) in the east and coast of Oaxaca and in the south of Guerrero, in addition to precipitation very strong (50 to 75 mm) in Michoacán. Additionally, significant accumulations with electrical activity are expected in Colima and Jalisco, which could cause flooding and road complications.
With that volume of water, the SMN and Civil Protection warn of possible landslides, sudden increases in the level of rivers and streams, overflows and flooding in low-lying areas, as well as reduced visibility on road sections due to showers and curtains of water.
As for the wind, currents blow 20 to 30 km / h with gusts of 40 to 60 km/h on the exposed coast. The waves remain high, with heights ranging from 2 and 3 meters against Oaxaca and Guerrero, who can reach 2.5 to 3.5 m in sections of Guerrero and Michoacán, and in the order of 1.5 to 2.5 m towards the coasts of Colima and Jalisco.
Will it become a hurricane?
Official forecasts from the National Meteorological Service (SMN) and the United States National Hurricane Center point to a intensification in the next 48 hoursIf the scenario comes true, Narda could reach the strength of hurricane starting Tuesday, provided favorable conditions persist over open water.
For the moment, the estimated trajectory remains the same. parallel to the coast and offshore, with no coastal warnings or alerts in effect. However, a change in the wind pattern or speed of movement could modify the impacts, hence the recommendation follow the newsletters periodically.
Official recommendations and preparation
Authorities have asked the coastal population and those living in hillside areas to take extreme precautions. high wind and waves, in addition to remaining alert to the state of roads, ravines and channels. It is emphasized follow instructions from Civil Protection and harbor masters regarding navigation and maritime activities.
- Review and secure loose objects that can be projected by strong gusts.
- Avoid crossing fords, rivers or streams with current during and after heavy rains.
- Prepare one emergency backpack with water, flashlight, radio and documents.
- Consult official sources: SMN and Conagua and Civil Protection for updates.
For the maritime and fishing sector, constant assessments of local conditions are recommended, since the gusts and waves They can change rapidly with the passage of convective bands. When in doubt, postponing departures and checking the status of ports are prudent measures.
In the days prior to its formation, the low pressure zone that gave rise to Narda already had a high probability (80-90%) of cyclonic development. Early monitoring allowed preventive measures to be focused on the most exposed coastal sections.
This season, Mexico expects up to 20 named cyclones in the Pacific, of which between four and six could reach category 3, 4 or 5. Surveillance extends to the entire eastern Pacific corridor due to the recurrence of rapidly intensifying systems.
Several named storms have been recorded so far in the Mexican Pacific, including Alvin, Barbara, Cosme, Dalila, Erick, Flossie, Gil, Henriette, Ivo, Juliette, Lorena and Kiko, a reminder of the hurricane activity in Mexico.
The most notable precedent was Hurricane Erick, which made landfall in June as a Category 3 storm, left devastation in Oaxaca and Guerrero, with damage to electrical infrastructure and homes, fallen trees, and the death of a child, underscoring the need for preparation for high-impact events.
The panorama is marked by a active surveillance: Narda continues to advance parallel to the coast with significant rain and swell, with the potential to intensify into a hurricane in the coming hours and with authorities calling for the prudence now follow the official updates in each bulletin.
