The National Hurricane Center maintains the surveillance over the tropical wave AL98 in the eastern Caribbean Sea, a system that has gained organization and could become a cyclone if favorable conditions persist over the next few days.
According to the most recent warnings from regional authorities, IDEAM and the Technical Table of Alerts for Tropical Cyclone raised the development estimate to very high values and activated preventive protocols, while the NHC points to an increasingly favorable environment and a trajectory still with considerable uncertainty as it approaches the central Caribbean.
Current situation and probable trajectory
AL98 is located in the eastern sector of the Caribbean, in the vicinity of the Gulf of Maracaibo, and is moving west at a rate of 24 to 32 km/h (15 to 20 mph). Forecasts point to a gradual reduction in speed upon reaching the central Caribbean, the area where the warm sea and lower wind shear could favor its organization.
The most active convection is concentrated to the east of the wave axis and, if the system maintains its structure, strengthening is not ruled out until tropical depression or storm Midweek. In the Windward and Leeward Antilles, rainfall has eased compared to previous days, but the ABC Islands (Aruba, Bonaire, and Curaçao) may experience rain and gusts of wind associated with the passage of the disturbance. more active convection It is usually an early indicator of organization into tropical waves.
Alerts and expected effects in the Colombian Caribbean
Colombian entities reported an increase in care levels: Enlistment in La Guajira, Warning in Magdalena, Atlántico and Bolívar, and Vigilance in Córdoba, Sucre, Antioquia, the Gulf of Urabá and the archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina.
In the northeastern sector of the Caribbean, they have been observed winds close to 55 km/h (≈30 knots) and significant waves of up to 3 meters. If the system intensifies, temporary conditions with gusts exceeding 63 km/h and a worsening of the sea state could occur in areas of the central Caribbean.
The General Maritime Directorate (DIMAR) has warned that they could be applied navigation restrictions if strong winds and waves persist, while the Civil Aeronautics recommends contingency plans for possible specific impacts on air operations.
The Technical Table of Alerts for Tropical Cyclone maintains the National Protocol and the National Response Plan active, and indicated that it will issue a New bulletin at 08:00 a.m. on Tuesday, October 21, or earlier if the scenario changes significantly.
For the clarity of citizens and those responsible for risk management, these are the current provisions reported by the authorities:
- Enlistment Level: La Guajira.
- Warning Level: Magdalena, Atlántico and Bolívar.
- Surveillance Level: Córdoba, Sucre, Antioquia, Gulf of Urabá and the archipelago of San Andrés, Providencia and Santa Catalina.
Models and scenarios of evolution
According to tropical tracking specialists, the system presents a range of plausible trajectories. The FV3 model, for example, contemplates a possible initial recurve to the northeast If it is captured by a mid-to-upper-level trough, if this interaction is not sufficient, AL98 could continue west or northwest and describe a second recurve in the western Caribbean.
In any case, meteorologists stress that there is no definitive route and that the conditions at altitude will be decisive to define the final course. For now, and judging by the available analyses, the phenomenon does not pose a direct threat to Cuba, although it could drag bands of cloudiness and rain toward the ABC Islands and sectors of the Colombian Caribbean.
Probability of development and season
The evaluations of IDEAM and the Technical Board place the probability of cyclonic formation of AL98 at 90% at both 48 hours and seven days, a percentage that justifies the preventive deployment. It's worth remembering that the Atlantic season, between June 1 and November 30, typically intensifies in October, and this year's activity is expected to be above normal.
Recommendations from the authorities
Given the expectation of rain, storms and rough seas, it is suggested to the population and the maritime community avoid activities in coastal areas When adverse conditions are announced, review evacuation plans in exposed areas and follow official channels to avoid contributing to misinformation.
For homes and businesses in vulnerable areas, experts advise secure covers and loose items, clean drains to prevent flooding, and avoid staying outdoors during lightning strikes. Risk management agencies have also requested verification of the availability of temporary shelters and logistical resources.
The short-term evolution of AL98 will be key to confirming whether it reaches depression or tropical storm status; until then, the watchword is constant monitoring and prudence in decision-making both from authorities and citizens, especially in the coastal areas of the central Caribbean.
